Federal Coordinating Lead Author:
David Reidmiller, U.S. Global Change Research Program
Lead Author:
Christopher W. Avery, U.S. Global Change Research Program
Contributing Authors:
Michael Kolian, U.S. Global Change Research Program
Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State University
David Herring, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Reid Sherman, U.S. Global Change Research Program/Straughan Environmental
William V. Sweet, U.S. Global Change Research Program
Kathryn Tipton, U.S. Global Change Research Program/ICF
Christopher Weaver, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Data Tools and Scenarios Products

Overview

The USGCRP hosts an interagency climate-related indicator platform at http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators. Climate indicators for this purpose are defined as observations or other measures that are used to track the state of or the trend in conditions with a scientifically based relationship to the changing climate. For example, businesses might look at the unemployment index as one of a number of indicators representing the condition of the economy. Similarly, indicators related to climate—which may be physical, ecological, or societal—can be used to understand how environmental conditions are changing, to assess risks and vulnerabilities, and to help inform resilience and planning for climate impacts.

One of the primary goals of the USGCRP indicators effort is to support a sustained National Climate Assessment process by regularly tracking variables relevant to climate change. USGCRP and its participating agencies intend to maintain the indicators as a living resource, routinely updating them with new data. In addition, the indicators effort serves as a platform for USGCRP agencies to showcase data collection efforts and to highlight research related to indicators of change across a range of sectors.

The USGCRP indicators are not intended to be representative of all potential indicators across all possible scales; rather, they are meant to communicate several key aspects of climate change, such as temperatures over land and at sea, greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the atmosphere, the extent of arctic sea ice, and related effects in sectors like public health, water resources, and agriculture. All of the indicators show climate-related trends over time and meet established criteria related to data quality.13 Similar to the findings and figures in NCA3 and other NCA reports and products, the indicators’ underlying datasets are documented in USGCRP’s Global Change Information System (GCIS).

USGCRP Indicators

USGCRP’s indicator platform currently includes 15 representative global and national-level climate indicators:14

  • annual GHG index
  • arctic glacial mass balance
  • arctic sea ice extent
  • atmospheric carbon dioxide
  • frost-free season
  • global surface temperatures
  • heating and cooling degree days
  • heavy precipitation
  • ocean chlorophyll concentrations
  • sea level rise (global)
  • sea surface temperatures
  • start of spring
  • terrestrial carbon storage
  • U.S. heat waves
  • U.S. surface temperatures
   

Figure A3.2: Climate Change Indicators

Click on a topic or on the thumbnails below the image to see a relevant indicator.

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Figure A3.2:

Long-term observations demonstrate the warming trend in the climate system and the effects of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations Ch. 2: Climate, Box 2.2). This figure shows climate-relevant indicators of change based on data collected across the United States. Upward-pointing arrows indicate an increasing trend; downward-pointing arrows indicate a decreasing trend. Bidirectional arrows (for example, for drought conditions) indicates a lack of a definitive national trend.

Atmosphere (a–c): (a) Annual average temperatures have increased by 1.8°F across the contiguous United States since the beginning of the 20th century; this figure shows observed change for 1986–2016 (relative to 1901–1960 for the contiguous United States and 1925–1960 for Alaska, Hawai‘i, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). Alaska is warming faster than any other state and has warmed twice as fast as the global average since the mid-20th century (Ch. 2: Climate, KM 5; Ch. 26: Alaska, Introduction). (b) The season length of heat waves in many U.S. cities has increased by over 40 days since the 1960s. Hatched bars indicate partially complete decadal data. (c) The relative amount of annual rainfall that comes from large, single-day precipitation events has changed over the past century; since 1910, a larger percentage of land area in the contiguous United States receives precipitation in the form of these intense single-day events.

Ice, snow, and water (d–f): (d) Large declines in snowpack in the western United States occurred from 1955 to 2016. (e) While there are a number of ways to measure drought, there is currently no detectable change in long-term U.S. drought statistics using the Palmer Drought Severity Index. (f) Since the early 1980s, the annual minimum sea ice extent (observed in September each year) in the Arctic Ocean has decreased at a rate of 11%–16% per decade (Ch. 2: Climate, KM 7).

Oceans and coasts (g–i): (g) Annual median sea level along the U.S. coast (with land motion removed) has increased by about 9 inches since the early 20th century as oceans have warmed and land ice has melted (Ch. 2: Climate, KM 4). (h) Fish, shellfish, and other marine species along the Northeast coast and in the eastern Bering Sea have, on average, moved northward and to greater depths toward cooler waters since the early 1980s (records start in 1982). (i) Oceans are also currently absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually by human activities, increasing their acidity (measured by lower pH values; Ch. 2: Climate, KM 3).

Land and ecosystems (j–l): (j) The average length of the growing season has increased across the contiguous United States since the early 20th century, meaning that, on average, the last spring frost occurs earlier and the first fall frost arrives later; this map shows changes in growing season length at the state level from 1895 to 2016. (k) Warmer and drier conditions have contributed to an increase in large forest fires in the western United States and Interior Alaska over the past several decades.15 (l) Degree days are defined as the number of degrees by which the average daily temperature is higher than 65°F (cooling degree days) or lower than 65°F (heating degree days) and are used as a proxy for energy demands for cooling or heating buildings. Changes in temperatures indicate that heating needs have decreased and cooling needs have increased in the contiguous United States over the past century. Sources: (a) adapted from Vose et al. 2017,16 (b) EPA, (c–f and h–l) adapted from EPA 2016,17 (g and center infographic) EPA and NOAA.

Additional Indicator Resources

Several U.S. federal agencies make available climate-relevant indicators and their underlying data. For example, the EPA partners with more than 40 data contributors from various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations to compile a key set of nearly 40 indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change. The indicators are published in the EPA’s report Climate Change Indicators in the United States. Updated datasets can be found on the EPA website.17 To provide a more comprehensive resource to NCA4 authors and the broader public, readers can access a much more expansive suite of climate indicators, many at a regional scale, here: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators.

The EPA’s climate indicators effort is meant to communicate the causes and effects of climate change in the areas of atmospheric composition, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, health and society, and ecosystems. All of the indicators are based on historical observations (no projections), are independently peer-reviewed, and are routinely updated with new data.

A variety of other readily accessible federal climate indicator resources are available for public use, including

Other relevant sources of indicator information include


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