Federal Coordinating Lead Author:
Chris Swanston, USDA Forest Service
Chapter Lead:
Jim Angel, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois
Chapter Authors:
Barbara Mayes Boustead, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Kathryn C. Conlon, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Kimberly R. Hall, The Nature Conservancy
Jenna L. Jorns, University of Michigan, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments
Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State University
Maria Carmen Lemos, University of Michigan, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments
Brent Lofgren, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Todd A. Ontl, USDA Forest Service, Northern Forests Climate Hub
John Posey, East West Gateway Council of Governments
Kim Stone, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (through January 2018)
Eugene Takle, Iowa State University
Dennis Todey, USDA, Midwest Climate Hub
Review Editor:
Thomas Bonnot, University of Missouri
Technical Contributors:
Katherine Browne, University of Michigan
Melonee Montano, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission
Hannah Panci, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission
Jason Vargo, University of Wisconsin
Madeline R. Magee, University of Wisconsin-Madison
USGCRP Coordinators:
Kristin Lewis, Senior Scientist
Allyza Lustig, Program Coordinator
Katie Reeves, Engagement and Communications Lead

Midwest

TRACEABLE ACCOUNTS

Process Description

The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.

Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.

Note on regional modeling uncertainties

Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).315,316 Globally recognized modeling efforts (i.e., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP) do not include a realistic representation of the Great Lakes, simulating the influence of the lakes poorly or not at all.192,198,317,318,319 Ongoing work to provide evaluation, analysis, and guidance for the Great Lakes region includes comparing this regional model data to commonly used global climate model data (CMIP) that are the basis of many products practitioners currently use (i.e., NCA, IPCC, NOAA State Climate Summaries). To address these challenges, a community of regional modeling experts are working to configure and utilize more sophisticated climate models that more accurately represent the Great Lakes’ lake–land–atmosphere system to enhance the understanding of uncertainty to inform better regional decision-making capacity (see http://glisa.umich.edu/projects/great-lakes-ensemble for more information).


KEY MESSAGES


See Full Chapter & References