TY - JOUR AB - A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sigma) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sigma to 4sigma by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change. AD - Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. shsiang@berkeley.edu AU - Hsiang, S. M. AU - Burke, M. AU - Miguel, E. C6 - NIEHS DA - Sep 13 DB - DO - 10.1126/science.1235367 DP - CCII PubMed NLM ET - 2013/09/14 IS - 6151 KW - Climate Climate Change/ statistics & numerical data Conflict (Psychology) Crime/ statistics & numerical data Humans Literature Based Discovery Violence/statistics & numerical data LA - eng N1 - Hsiang, Solomon M Burke, Marshall Miguel, Edward Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Science. 2013 Sep 13;341(6151):1235367. doi: 10.1126/science.1235367. Epub 2013 Aug 1. PY - 2013 RN - CCII Unique - PDF retrieved SN - 1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking) SP - 1235367 ST - Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict T2 - Science TI - Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict VL - 341 ID - 4568 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Melillo, Jerry M. A2 - Richmond, T.C. A2 - Yohe, Gary W. AU - Leong, Jo-Ann AU - Marra, John J. AU - Finucane, Melissa L. AU - Giambelluca, Thomas AU - Merrifield, Mark AU - Miller, Stephen E. AU - Polovina, Jeffrey AU - Shea, Eileen AU - Burkett, Maxine AU - Campbell, John AU - Lefale, Penehuro AU - Lipschultz, Fredric AU - Loope, Lloyd AU - Spooner, Deanna AU - Wang, Bin C4 - 081bdbe7-f95f-4708-b18c-e7bc797effa7 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0W66HPM PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2014 RN - http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/hawaii-and-pacific-islands SP - 537-556 ST - Ch. 23: Hawai‘i and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands T2 - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment TI - Ch. 23: Hawai‘i and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands ID - 8667 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Melillo, Jerry M. AU - Richmond, T.C. AU - Yohe, Gary W. CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0Z31WJ2 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2014 RN - http://nca2014.globalchange.gov SN - 9780160924026 SP - 841 ST - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment TI - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment ID - 8675 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnett, Jon AU - Adger, W. Neil C6 - NCA DO - 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88 IS - 3 PY - 2003 SN - 0165-0009 SP - 321-337 ST - Climate dangers and atoll countries T2 - Climatic Change TI - Climate dangers and atoll countries VL - 61 ID - 12564 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bassiouni, M. AU - Oki, D. S. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1002/hyp.9298 IS - 10 PY - 2013 SN - 1099-1085 SP - 1484-1500 ST - Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawai‘i, 1913–2008 T2 - Hydrological Processes TI - Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawai‘i, 1913–2008 VL - 27 ID - 12583 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Hawai'i's coral reef ecosystems provide many goods and services to coastal populations, such as fisheries and tourism. They also form a unique natural ecosystem, with an important biodiversity value as well as scientific and educational value. Also, coral reefs form a natural protection against wave erosion. Without even attempting to measure their intrinsic value, this paper shows that coral reefs, if properly managed, contribute enormously to the welfare of Hawai'i through a variety of quantifiable benefits. Net benefits are estimated at $360 million a year for Hawai'i's economy, and the overall asset value of the state of Hawai'i's 1660 km2 (410,000 acres) of potential reef area in the main Hawaiian Islands is estimated at nearly $10 billion. AU - Cesar, H.S.J. AU - van Beukering, P.J.H. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1353/psc.2004.0014 IS - 2 N1 - University of Hawaii Press PY - 2004 SN - 00030-8870 SP - 231-242 ST - Economic valuation of the coral reefs of Hawai‘i T2 - Pacific Science TI - Economic valuation of the coral reefs of Hawai‘i VL - 58 ID - 12879 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cheung, William W.L. AU - Lam, Vicky W.Y. AU - Sarmiento, Jorge L. AU - Kearney, Kelly AU - Watson, Reg AU - Pauly, Daniel C6 - NCA DA - Sep 01 DO - 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x IS - 3 PY - 2009 SP - 235-251 ST - Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios T2 - Fish and Fisheries TI - Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios VL - 10 ID - 12902 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cheung, W.W.L. AU - Lam, V.W.Y. AU - Sarmiento, J.L. AU - Kearney, K. AU - Watson, REG AU - Zeller, D. AU - Pauly, D. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x IS - 1 PY - 2010 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 24-35 ST - Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change VL - 16 ID - 12903 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Doney, S.C. AU - Fabry, V.J. AU - Feely, R.A. AU - Kleypas, J.A. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834 IS - 1 PY - 2009 SN - 1941-1405, 1941-0611 SP - 169-192 ST - Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem T2 - Annual Review of Marine Science TI - Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem VL - 1 ID - 13174 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Doney, S.C. AU - Ruckelshaus, M. AU - Duffy, J.E. AU - Barry, J.P. AU - Chan, F. AU - English, C.A. AU - Galindo, H.M. AU - Grebmeier, J.M. AU - Hollowed, A.B. AU - Knowlton, N. AU - Polovina, J. AU - Rabalais, N.N. AU - Sydeman, W.J. AU - Talley, L.D. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 PY - 2012 SP - 11-37 ST - Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems T2 - Annual Review of Marine Science TI - Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems VL - 4 ID - 13175 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gilman, E. L. AU - Ellison, J. AU - Duke, N. C. AU - Field, C. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/j.aquabot.2007.12.009 IS - 2 PY - 2008 SN - 0304-3770 SP - 237-250 ST - Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review T2 - Aquatic Botany TI - Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review VL - 89 ID - 13544 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoegh-Guldberg, O. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1071/MF99078 IS - 8 PY - 1999 SN - 1323-1650 SP - 839-866 ST - Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs T2 - Marine & Freshwater Research TI - Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs VL - 50 ID - 13764 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Nakicenovic, N. A2 - Swart , R. AU - IPCC C6 - NCA CY - Cambridge, UK PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2000 RN - 0 521 80081 1 SP - 570 ST - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TI - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0 ID - 13879 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Keener, V. AU - Marra, J.J. AU - Finucane, M.L. AU - Spooner, D. AU - Smith, M.H. CY - Washington, DC PB - Island Press PY - 2012 SN - 978-1-61091-427-7 SP - 170 ST - Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) TI - Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) UR - http://www.pacificrisa.org/projects/pirca/ ID - 14029 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Mac, M. J. A2 - Opler, P. A. A2 - Haecker, C. E. Puckett A2 - Doran, P. D. AU - Loope, L.L. C6 - NCA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center PY - 1998 SP - 747-774 ST - Hawaii and the Pacific Islands. Status and Trends of the Nation’s Biological Resources TI - Hawaii and the Pacific Islands. Status and Trends of the Nation’s Biological Resources UR - http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/sandt/Hawaii.pdf VL - 2 ID - 14302 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mantua, N.J. AU - Hare, S.R. AU - Zhang, Y. AU - Wallace, J.M. AU - Francis, R.C. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2 IS - 6 PY - 1997 SN - 0003-0007 SP - 1069-1080 ST - A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production VL - 78 ID - 14374 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rotzoll, Kolja AU - Fletcher, Charles H. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1038/nclimate1725 IS - 5 M3 - Letter PY - 2013 SN - 1758-678X SP - 477-481 ST - Assessment of groundwater inundation as a consequence of sea-level rise T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Assessment of groundwater inundation as a consequence of sea-level rise VL - 3 ID - 15233 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Wyrtki, K. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/1520-0485(1975)005<0572:ENTDRO>2.0.CO;2 IS - 4 PY - 1975 SN - 1520-0485 SP - 572-584 ST - El Niño—The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing T2 - Journal of Physical Oceanography TI - El Niño—The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing VL - 5 ID - 16034 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Ziegler, A.C. C4 - 0bda6ea6-1229-4e48-95ec-d258960736b7 PB - University of Hawaii Press PY - 2002 SN - 0824821904 SP - 477 ST - Hawaiian Natural History, Ecology, and Evolution TI - Hawaiian Natural History, Ecology, and Evolution ID - 16077 ER - TY - BOOK A2 - Stocker, T.F. A2 - Qin, D. A2 - Plattner, G.-K. A2 - Tignor, M. A2 - Allen, S.K. A2 - Boschung, J. A2 - Nauels, A. A2 - Xia, Y. A2 - Bex, V. A2 - Midgley, P.M. AU - IPCC C4 - f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190 CY - Cambridge, UK and New York, NY PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 RN - ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0 SP - 1535 ST - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TI - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UR - http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/ ID - 16456 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Stocker, T.F. A2 - Qin, D. A2 - Plattner, G.-K. A2 - Tignor, M. A2 - Allen, S.K. A2 - Boschung, J. A2 - Nauels, A. A2 - Xia, Y. A2 - Bex, V. A2 - Midgley, P.M. A3 - van Oldenborgh, G.J. A2 - Collins, M. A2 - Arblaster, J. A2 - Christensen, J.H. A2 - Marotzke, J. A2 - Power, S.B. A2 - Rummukainen, M. A2 - Zhou, T. AU - IPCC C4 - 1fca63fb-3033-445e-99ba-1136da451058 CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA DO - 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.029 PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 SE - AI SN - ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0 SP - 1311–1394 ST - Annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections T2 - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TI - Annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections UR - http://www.climatechange2013.org ID - 16458 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Barros, V. R. A2 - Field, C. B. A2 - Dokken, D. J. A2 - Mastrandrea, M. D. A2 - Mach, K. J. A2 - Bilir, T. E. A2 - Chatterjee, M. A2 - Ebi, K. L. A2 - Estrada, Y. O. A2 - Genova, R. C. A2 - Girma, B. A2 - Kissel, E. S. A2 - Levy, A. N. A2 - MacCracken, S. A2 - Mastrandrea, P. R. A2 - White, L. L. AU - Nurse, L. A. AU - McLean, R. F. AU - Agard, J. AU - Briguglio, L. P. AU - Duvat-Magnan, V. AU - Pelesikoti, N. AU - Tompkins, E. AU - Webb, A. C4 - 69d2444f-ce49-4b08-8cb4-3eb33fbef6ff CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2014 SE - 29 SP - 1613-1654 ST - Small islands T2 - Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change TI - Small islands ID - 17694 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hsiang, S. M. AU - Burke, Marshall DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3 IS - 1 PY - 2014 SP - 39-55 ST - Climate, conflict, and social stability: What does the evidence say? T2 - Climatic Change TI - Climate, conflict, and social stability: What does the evidence say? VL - 123 ID - 19210 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years. AU - DeConto, Robert M. AU - Pollard, David DA - 03/31/print DO - 10.1038/nature17145 IS - 7596 M3 - Article PY - 2016 SN - 0028-0836 SP - 591-597 ST - Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise T2 - Nature TI - Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise VL - 531 ID - 19404 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., “cold wake” generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980–2008) for a “control run” with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble. In general agreement with most previous studies, projections with this framework indicate fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-twenty-first-century climate, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates, and the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms. While these changes are apparent in the globally averaged tropical cyclone statistics, they are not necessarily present in each individual basin. The interbasin variation of changes in most of the tropical cyclone metrics examined is directly correlated to the variation in magnitude of SST increases between the basins. Finally, the framework is shown to be capable of reproducing both the observed global distribution of outer storm size—albeit with a slight high bias—and its interbasin variability. Projected median size is found to remain nearly constant globally, with increases in most basins offset by decreases in the northwest Pacific. AU - Knutson, Thomas R. AU - Sirutis, Joseph J. AU - Zhao, Ming AU - Tuleya, Robert E. AU - Bender, Morris AU - Vecchi, Gabriel A. AU - Villarini, Gabriele AU - Chavas, Daniel DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1 IS - 18 KW - Climate change,Hurricanes/typhoons PY - 2015 SP - 7203-7224 ST - Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios VL - 28 ID - 19428 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kopp, Robert E. AU - Horton, Radley M. AU - Little, Christopher M. AU - Mitrovica, Jerry X. AU - Oppenheimer, Michael AU - Rasmussen, D. J. AU - Strauss, Benjamin H. AU - Tebaldi, Claudia DO - 10.1002/2014EF000239 IS - 8 KW - sea level coastal flooding climate change risk analysis uncertainty quantification 1641 Sea level change 1821 Floods PY - 2014 SN - 2328-4277 SP - 383-406 ST - Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites T2 - Earth’s Future TI - Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites VL - 2 ID - 19430 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cai, Wenju AU - Borlace, Simon AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu AU - van Rensch, Peter AU - Collins, Mat AU - Vecchi, Gabriel AU - Timmermann, Axel AU - Santoso, Agus AU - McPhaden, Michael J. AU - Wu, Lixin AU - England, Matthew H. AU - Wang, Guojian AU - Guilyardi, Eric AU - Jin, Fei-Fei DA - 02//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2100 IS - 2 M3 - Letter PY - 2014 SN - 1758-678X SP - 111-116 ST - Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming VL - 4 ID - 19598 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cai, Wenju AU - Wang, Guojian AU - Santoso, Agus AU - McPhaden, Michael J. AU - Wu, Lixin AU - Jin, Fei-Fei AU - Timmermann, Axel AU - Collins, Mat AU - Vecchi, Gabriel AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu AU - England, Matthew H. AU - Dommenget, Dietmar AU - Takahashi, Ken AU - Guilyardi, Eric DA - 02//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2492 IS - 2 M3 - Letter PY - 2015 SN - 1758-678X SP - 132-137 ST - Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming VL - 5 ID - 19599 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lee, Tong AU - McPhaden, Michael J. DO - 10.1029/2010GL044007 IS - 14 KW - El Niño 1616 Climate variability 4231 Equatorial oceanography 4522 ENSO PY - 2010 SN - 1944-8007 SP - L14603 ST - Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific VL - 37 ID - 19629 ER - TY - JOUR AB - To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Nino and La Nina events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise. AU - Barnard, Patrick L. AU - Short, Andrew D. AU - Harley, Mitchell D. AU - Splinter, Kristen D. AU - Vitousek, Sean AU - Turner, Ian L. AU - Allan, Jonathan AU - Banno, Masayuki AU - Bryan, Karin R. AU - Doria, Andre AU - Hansen, Jeff E. AU - Kato, Shigeru AU - Kuriyama, Yoshiaki AU - Randall-Goodwin, Evan AU - Ruggiero, Peter AU - Walker, Ian J. AU - Heathfield, Derek K. DA - 10//print DO - 10.1038/ngeo2539 IS - 10 M3 - Article PY - 2015 SN - 1752-0894 SP - 801-807 ST - Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation T2 - Nature Geoscience TI - Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation VL - 8 ID - 19902 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gleckler, Peter J. AU - Durack, Paul J. AU - Stouffer, Ronald J. AU - Johnson, Gregory C. AU - Forest, Chris E. DA - 04//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2915 IS - 4 M3 - Letter PY - 2016 SN - 1758-678X SP - 394-398 ST - Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades VL - 6 ID - 19922 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hamlington, B. D. AU - Cheon, S. H. AU - Thompson, P. R. AU - Merrifield, M. A. AU - Nerem, R. S. AU - Leben, R. R. AU - Kim, K. Y. DO - 10.1002/2016JC011815 IS - 7 KW - Pacific sea level ENSO PDO 1641 Sea level change 4215 Climate and interannual variability PY - 2016 SN - 2169-9291 SP - 5084-5097 ST - An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans TI - An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level VL - 121 ID - 19928 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoeke, Ron K. AU - McInnes, Kathleen L. AU - Kruger, Jens C. AU - McNaught, Rebecca J. AU - Hunter, John R. AU - Smithers, Scott G. DA - 9// DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.006 KW - disaster risk inundation flooding sea level El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific waves storms PY - 2013 SN - 0921-8181 SP - 128-138 ST - Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves T2 - Global and Planetary Change TI - Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves VL - 108 ID - 19932 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Shope, James B. AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Erikson, Li H. AU - Hegermiller, Christie A. DA - 6// DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.03.009 KW - Tropical Pacific Extreme waves Swell Climate change Pacific Islands Extratropical cyclones PY - 2016 SN - 0921-8181 SP - 25-38 ST - Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the western tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability T2 - Global and Planetary Change TI - Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the western tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability VL - 141 ID - 19978 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty. AU - Slangen, A. B. A. AU - Carson, M. AU - Katsman, C. A. AU - van de Wal, R. S. W. AU - Köhl, A. AU - Vermeersen, L. L. A. AU - Stammer, D. DO - 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2014 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 317-332 ST - Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes T2 - Climatic Change TI - Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes VL - 124 ID - 19980 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tedesco, M. AU - Doherty, S. AU - Fettweis, X. AU - Alexander, P. AU - Jeyaratnam, J. AU - Stroeve, J. DO - 10.5194/tc-10-477-2016 IS - 2 PY - 2016 SN - 1994-0424 SP - 477-496 ST - The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: Trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100) T2 - The Cryosphere TI - The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: Trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100) VL - 10 ID - 19992 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Erikson, L. H. AU - Hegermiller, C. A. AU - Barnard, P. L. AU - Ruggiero, P. AU - van Ormondt, M. DA - 12// DO - 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.004 IS - Part 1 KW - Wave climate GCMs Climate change Eastern North Pacific PY - 2015 SN - 1463-5003 SP - 171-185 ST - Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios T2 - Ocean Modelling TI - Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios VL - 96 ID - 20144 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Knutti, Reto AU - Sedláček, Jan DA - 04//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate1716 IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 1758-678X SP - 369-373 ST - Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections VL - 3 ID - 20348 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Sweet, W.V. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - Weaver, C.P. AU - Obeysekera, J. AU - Horton, R.M. AU - Thieler, E.R. AU - Zervas, C. CY - Silver Spring, MD NV - NOAA Tech. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 083 PB - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service PY - 2017 SP - 75 ST - Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States TI - Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States UR - https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf ID - 20608 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The rapid melting of the Earth′s ice reservoirs will produce geographically distinct patterns of sea level change that have come to be known as sea level fingerprints. A basic, gravitationally self-consistent theory for computing these patterns appeared in the 1970s; however, recent, highly discrepant fingerprint calculations have led to suggestions that the algorithms and/or theoretical implementation adopted in many previous predictions is not robust. We present a suite of numerical predictions, including benchmark comparisons with analytic results, that counter this argument and demonstrate the accuracy of most published predictions. Moreover, we show that small differences apparent in calculations published by some groups can be accounted for by subtle differences in the underlying physics. The paper concludes with two sensitivity analyses: (1) we present the first-ever calculation of sea level fingerprints on earth models with 3-D variations in elastic structure and density, and conclude that this added complexity has a negligible effect on the predictions; (2) we compare fingerprints of polar ice sheet mass flux computed under the (very common) assumption of a uniform melt distribution to fingerprints calculated using melt geometries constrained by analysing recent trends in GRACE gravity data. Predictions in the near field of the ice sheets are sensitive to the assumed melt geometry; however, this sensitivity also extends to the far field, particularly in the case of Antarctic mass changes, because of the strong dependence of the rotational feedback signal on the melt geometry. We conclude that inferences of ice sheet mass flux based on modern sea level constraints should consider these more realistic melt geometries. AU - Mitrovica, J. X. AU - Gomez, N. AU - Morrow, E. AU - Hay, C. AU - Latychev, K. AU - Tamisiea, M. E. DA - November 1, 2011 DO - 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05090.x IS - 2 PY - 2011 SP - 729-742 ST - On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints T2 - Geophysical Journal International TI - On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints VL - 187 ID - 20632 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Schmidtko, Sunke AU - Stramma, Lothar AU - Visbeck, Martin DA - 02/16/print DO - 10.1038/nature21399 IS - 7641 M3 - Letter PY - 2017 SN - 0028-0836 SP - 335-339 ST - Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades T2 - Nature TI - Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades VL - 542 ID - 20695 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC NV - EPA 430‐R‐17‐001 PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PY - 2017 SP - 271 ST - Multi-Model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment TI - Multi-Model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment UR - https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095 ID - 21365 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - USGCRP CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0J964J6 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SP - 470 ST - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I ID - 21557 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Perlwitz, J. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - LeGrande, A.N. C4 - 1a46c6a2-4b5f-408d-b3d0-21ebdd4f960b CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0RV0KVQ PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 5 SP - 161-184 ST - Large-scale circulation and climate variability T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Large-scale circulation and climate variability ID - 21563 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Leung, L.R. AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Waliser, D.E. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0H993CC PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 7 SP - 207-230 ST - Precipitation change in the United States T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Precipitation change in the United States ID - 21565 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Wehner, M.F. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. C4 - a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 8 SP - 231-256 ST - Droughts, floods, and wildfires T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Droughts, floods, and wildfires ID - 21566 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - Hall, T. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - Trapp, R.J. AU - Waliser, D.E. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - 52ce1b63-1b04-4728-9f1b-daee39af665e CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J07S7KXX PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 9 SP - 257-276 ST - Extreme storms T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Extreme storms ID - 21567 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Sweet, W.V. AU - Horton, R. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Romanou, A. C4 - 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0VM49F2 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 12 SP - 333-363 ST - Sea level rise T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Sea level rise ID - 21570 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread ([ap]70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies. AU - Savo, V. AU - Lepofsky, D. AU - Benner, J. P. AU - Kohfeld, K. E. AU - Bailey, J. AU - Lertzman, K. DA - 05//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2958 IS - 5 M3 - Review PY - 2016 SN - 1758-678X SP - 462-473 ST - Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world VL - 6 ID - 21633 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks. AU - Gemenne, François AU - Barnett, Jon AU - Adger, W. Neil AU - Dabelko, Geoffrey D. DA - March 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-014-1074-7 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2014 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 1-9 ST - Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda T2 - Climatic Change TI - Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda VL - 123 ID - 22076 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Staples, George W. AU - Cowie, Robert H. CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2001 PB - Bishop Museum Press PY - 2001 SN - 1566475104 SP - 114 ST - Hawaii's Invasive Species: A Guide to Invasive Plants and Animals in the Hawaiian Islands TI - Hawaii's Invasive Species: A Guide to Invasive Plants and Animals in the Hawaiian Islands ID - 22361 ER - TY - CPAPER AU - Campbell, John CY - Bonn, Germany DA - 9-11 Oct 2008 PY - 2008 SP - 10 T2 - International Conference on Environment, Forced Migration & Social Vulnerability TI - International relocation from Pacific island countries: Adaptation failure? UR - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267963740_International_Relocation_from_Pacific_Island_Countries_Adaptation_Failure ID - 22362 ER - TY - ANCIENT AU - Reynolds, Michelle H. AU - Berkowitz, Paul AU - Courtot, Karen N. AU - Krause, Crystal M. CY - Reston, VA DA - 2012 NV - USGS Open-File Report 2012-1182 PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2012 SP - 139 ST - Predicting Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability of Terrestrial Habitat and Wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands TI - Predicting Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability of Terrestrial Habitat and Wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands UR - https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1182/ ID - 22364 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) Office of the President. Economic Policy Planning and Statistics Office CY - Majuro, Marshall Islands PY - 2012 SP - 23 ST - The RMI 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Summary and Highlights Only TI - The RMI 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Summary and Highlights Only UR - https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/migrated/oia/reports/upload/RMI-2011-Census-Summary-Report-on-Population-and-Housing.pdf ID - 22365 ER - TY - EDBOOK AB - Indigenous peoples occupy a unique niche within the climate justice movement, as many indigenous communities live subsistence lifestyles that are severely disrupted by the effects of climate change. Additionally, in many parts of the world, domestic law is applied differently to indigenous peoples than it is to their non-indigenous peers, further complicating the quest for legal remedies. The contributors to this book bring a range of expert legal perspectives to this complex discussion, offering both a comprehensive explanation of climate change-related problems faced by indigenous communities and a breakdown of various real world attempts to devise workable legal solutions. Regions covered include North and South America (Brazil, Canada, the US and the Arctic), the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia), Australia and New Zealand, Asia (China and Nepal) and Africa (Kenya). AU - Abate, Randall S. AU - Kronk Warner, Elizabeth Ann DA - 2013 PB - Edward Elgar Publishing PY - 2013 SN - 978 1 78100 179 0 ST - Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: The Search for Legal Remedies TI - Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: The Search for Legal Remedies ID - 22366 ER - TY - STAT C5 - Legislature of the State of Hawaii ET - 27th Legislature PY - 2014 ST - Hawaii Climate Adaptation Initiative Act (H.B. No. 1714) TI - Hawaii Climate Adaptation Initiative Act (H.B. No. 1714) UR - http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/session2014/bills/HB1714_.HTM ID - 22367 ER - TY - MULTI AU - Dateline Pacific DA - 2016/04/01/ M3 - Audio and transcript PB - Radio New Zealand PY - 2016 ST - Little water left as Micronesia struggles with long drought TI - Little water left as Micronesia struggles with long drought UR - http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/programmes/datelinepacific/audio/201795416/little-water-left-as-micronesia-struggles-with-long-drought ID - 22368 ER - TY - ANCIENT AU - Taylor, Mary AU - McGregor, Andrew AU - Dawson, Brain CY - Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia DA - 2016 PB - Pacific Community (SPC) PY - 2016 SN - 978-982-00-0882-3 SP - 559 ST - Vulnerability of Pacific Island Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change TI - Vulnerability of Pacific Island Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change UR - http://www.pacificfarmers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Vulnerability-of-Pacific-Island-agriculture-and-forestry-to-climate-change.pdf Y2 - 2017/06/06/ ID - 22369 ER - TY - WEB AB - Hawaii Governor D. Ige has set a goal of 100% increase in local agriculture production by 2020 AU - State of Hawaiʻi CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2017 PY - 2017 ST - Sustainable Hawaiʻi Initiative TI - Sustainable Hawaiʻi Initiative UR - http://governor.hawaii.gov/sustainable-hawaii-initiative/ ID - 22370 ER - TY - WEB AU - U. S. Energy Information Administration DA - 2017 PB - EIA, Independent Statistics & Analysis PY - 2018 ST - Electricity Data Browser [web tool] TI - Electricity Data Browser [web tool] UR - https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/ ID - 22372 ER - TY - RPRT AU - U. N. Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team CY - Geneva, Switzerland DA - 2005/04/01/ NV - OCHA Situation Report No. 5 PB - U. N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PY - 2005 ST - Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy TI - Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy UR - https://reliefweb.int/report/cook-islands/cook-islands-and-tokelau-tropical-cyclone-percy-ocha-situation-report-no-5 ID - 22373 ER - TY - RPRT AB - Over the years, the people of Manaʻe (East Molokaʻi) have witnessed a notable decline in the health of their watershed. A significant part of this declining health is the degradation of the mauka (mountain) native forests, which has subsequently had a drastic effect on all of the ahupuaʻa (traditional land divisions) of Manaʻe, from mauka (mountain) to makai (sea). Ensuring the well-being of these mauka areas is essential to the preservation and perpetuation of Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices carried out in the moku (district), given the symbiotic relationship between the people and their ʻāina. Thus, Manaʻe residents are passionate about protecting their moku and the resources that sustain them. It is their protectiveness of their island that often puts them at odds with each other in deciding how best to care for her – which is at the core of this report. In 2013, the possibility of protecting Manaʻe’s mauka rainforests with a fence was proposed to the community through the draft East Slope Watershed Start-Up Management Plan (“East Slope Management Plan”), which was prepared by the East Molokaʻi Watershed Partnership (EMoWP). That plan was based on the recognition that the degradation of these mauka areas was largely attributable to an influx of habitat altering invasive plant and animal species that have significantly impacted native forests, the life that inhabits them, and the freshwater they foster. The proposed fence has elicited strong reactions from the Manaʻe community – both for and against such a fence. It also caused some community members to call for additional planning that looks at the entire moku and all of its ahupuaʻa, from mauka to makai. In response to these strong reactions, the planning process to create this report was undertaken. The purpose of this report is to accomplish the following objectives: (1) Recognize that the people of Manaʻe (East Molokaʻi) regularly exercise Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices, and document those practices. (2) Provide an explanation of Native Hawaiian legal protections pertinent to Manaʻe kamaʻāina’s traditional and customary practices. (3) Develop a framework for a community-based Subsistence and Ahupuaʻa Management Plan for the Manaʻe Moku, Mauka to Makai. (4) Summarize community recommendations for the East Molokaʻi Watershed Partnership’s East Slope Management Plan (January 2014 draft). The primary steps taken to reach these goals included: • Documentation of residents’ traditional and cultural practices in the moku of Manaʻe; • Gathering mana‘o (input) from key informants (kamaʻāina and other experts) regarding how best to protect these resources and practices; • Analysis of legal protections specific to Manaʻe families exercising Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices within their moku and ahupuaʻa; • Reconciling varied perspectives and information where possible and finding common areas of agreement in manaʻo shared by Manaʻe families in terms of traditional and modern ʻāina (land) stewardship and ahupuaʻa resource management; • Identifying the recommendations that best incorporate and honor the collective manaʻo, and weaving them into a framework for a community-based Subsistence and Ahupuaʻa Management Plan for Manaʻe, Mauka to Makai. • Summarizing community recommendations for the East Slope Management Plan. AU - Akutagawa, Malia AU - Williams, Harmonee AU - Kamaka'ala, Shaelene AU - Native Hawaiian Rights Clinic DA - 2016/04/14/ DO - 10.13140/RG.2.1.2697.5125 DP - ResearchGate PB - Office of Hawaiian Affairs PY - 2016 SP - 140 ST - Traditional & Customary Practices Report for Manaʻe (East) Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi TI - Traditional & Customary Practices Report for Manaʻe (East) Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi ID - 22375 ER - TY - RPRT AB - Hawai‘i State law provides pathways for island communities to apply for the designation of Community-Based Subsistence Fishing Areas (CBSFAs), allowing for comanagement of culturally significant and/or cologically vulnerable nearshore fisheries by the state and local communities. In the early 1990s residents of the Island of Moloka‘i expressed concern about Native Hawaiians’ rights to exercise traditional cultural fishing practices in nearshore environments. A task force report, commissioned in 1994 by then- Governor John Waihe‘e, recommended that the Mo‘omomi fishery area along the northwest coast of Moloka‘i serve as a demonstration area, in which fishing activities would be managed by the Ho‘olehua Homestead community primarily for subsistence rather than commercial use. The Hawai‘i State Legislature passed Hawai‘i Revised Statute §188-22.6 that same year, authorizing the Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) to designate CBSFAs and implement management strategies “for the purpose of reaffirming and protecting fishing practices customarily and traditionally exercised for the purposes of [N]ative Hawaiian subsistence, culture, and religion.” Fish and other marine life are prominent staples of traditional Hawaiian diets, and overfishing, commercial harvesting methods, and a gradual movement away from the Hawaiian mahele system of sharing and other ancestral practices were identified as threats to community and cultural food security. Despite the passage of legislation more than 20 years ago, the proposed Mo‘omomi CBSFA remained a pilot project. Currently Hui Mālama O Mo‘omomi, a community organization based on Moloka‘i, is in the process of advancing a formal proposal to make traditional subsistence harvesting practices legally enforceable in the designated area of Moloka‘i’s north shore. This Health Impact Assessment seeks to provide information that will help evaluate the CBSFA proposal by taking into consideration potential effects of CBSFA status on community well-being. The authors also hope that the findings and recommendations of an HIA particular to the Mo‘omomi area may also prove relevant to CBSFA proposals from other regions of the state where such co-management strategies are being considered. AU - Akutagawa, Malia AU - Cole, Elizabeth AU - Diaz, Tressa P. AU - Gupta, Tanaya Dutta AU - Gupta, Clare AU - Kamakaala, Shaelene AU - Taualii, Maile AU - Faʻanunu, Angela CY - Kamuela, HI DA - 2016/03// DP - scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu LA - eng M3 - Report PB - The Kohala Center PY - 2016 ST - Health Impact Assessment of the Proposed Moʻomomi Community-Based Subsistence Fishing Area TI - Health Impact Assessment of the Proposed Moʻomomi Community-Based Subsistence Fishing Area UR - http://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/46016 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:09:09 ID - 22376 ER - TY - RPRT AU - AMAP CY - Oslo, Norway DA - 2017 PB - Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) PY - 2017 SP - 20 ST - Summary for Policy-Makers. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost TI - Summary for Policy-Makers. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost UR - https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Snow-Water-Ice-and-Permafrost.-Summary-for-Policy-makers/1532 ID - 22377 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a traditional impact assessment, this analysis considers impacts after balancing the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to growing damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results. AU - Anthoff, David AU - Nicholls, Robert J. AU - Tol, Richard S. J. DA - 2010/04/01/ DO - 10.1007/s11027-010-9220-7 DP - link.springer.com IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2010 SN - 1381-2386, 1573-1596 SP - 321-335 ST - The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise T2 - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change TI - The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise VL - 15 Y2 - 2017/09/26/01:14:36 ID - 22378 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Asifoa-Lagai, Molly CY - Pago Pago, AS DA - 2012/07// PB - American Samoa Community College PY - 2012 SP - 21 ST - "Food Desert" American Samoa: Assessing Food Desert at School Locations TI - "Food Desert" American Samoa: Assessing Food Desert at School Locations UR - https://www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/adap/Publications/ADAP_pubs/2012-FoodDesertReport.pdf ID - 22379 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Australian Bureau of Meteorology AU - CSIRO C4 - c57f7893-035e-49d9-b31d-83856dab8624 CY - Melbourne, Australia DA - 2011 PB - Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) PY - 2014 SN - 978-1-4863-0288-8 (print) 978-1-4863-0289-5 (online) SP - 358 ST - Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports 2014 TI - Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports 2014 UR - https://www.pacificclimatechange.net/document/climate-variability-extremes-and-change-western-tropical-pacific-new-science-and-updated ID - 22380 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Fresh groundwater reserves on small coral islands are under continual threat of salinization and contamination because of droughts, storm-surge overwash events, over-extraction, island community urbanization, and sea level rise. Whereas storm-surge overwash events can cause sudden groundwater salinization, long-term changes in rainfall patterns and sea level elevation have the potential of rendering these islands uninhabitable in the coming decades. This study demonstrates the use of a tested freshwater lens thickness simulator to estimate the groundwater resources of a set of atoll islands in the coming decades. The method uses ranges of projected rates of annual rainfall and sea level rise (SLR) to provide a range of probable lens thickness for each island. Projected rainfall is provided by General Circulation Models that accurately replicate the historical rainfall patterns in the geographic region of the islands. Methodology is applied to 68 atoll islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands have widths that range between 150 and 1000 m, and experience annual rainfall rates of between 2.8 and 4.8 m. Results indicate that under average conditions of SLR, beach slope, and rainfall, almost half of the island will experience a 20% decrease in lens thickness by the year 2050. For worst-case scenarios (high SLR, low rainfall), average decrease in lens thickness is 55%, with almost half of the islands experiencing a decrease of greater than 75% and half of the islands having a lens thickness less than 1.0 m. Small islands (widths less than 400 m) are particularly vulnerable because of shoreline recession. Groundwater on islands in the western region is less vulnerable to SLR because of a projected increase in rainfall during the coming decades. Results indicate the vulnerability of small islands to changing climatic conditions, and can be used for water resources management and community planning. Methodology can be applied to any group of islands as a first approximation of the effect of future climate conditions on groundwater resources. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. AU - Bailey, Ryan T. AU - Barnes, Kaitlyn AU - Wallace, Corey D. DA - 2016/06/30/ DO - 10.1002/hyp.10781 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 13 KW - groundwater atolls sea level rise LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 1099-1085 SP - 2092-2105 ST - Predicting future groundwater resources of coral atoll islands T2 - Hydrological Processes TI - Predicting future groundwater resources of coral atoll islands VL - 30 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:04:49 ID - 22381 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The development of Reimaanlok, a national framework for the planning and establishment of community-based conservation areas in the Marshall Islands, is outlined. A team composed of international experts and local resource management professionals selected and modified an ecoregional planning approach, defined key concepts, selected conservation features and targets, compiled biogeographical information from scientific and local knowledge and carried out a national-level ecological gap assessment. Past development of community-based fisheries and conservation plans was reviewed and the lessons learned informed the development of a robust community-based planning process for the design and establishment of conservation areas on individual atolls, integrating ecosystem based management (EBM) theory, traditional knowledge and management, and the particular socio-economic needs of island communities. While specific geographic, historical, cultural and economic characteristics of the Marshall Islands have created a framework that is unique, several aspects of this process offer ideas for national strategic conservation planning in other Small Island Developing States where there is a paucity of scientific data, significant and increasing threats, and where decision-making about the use of natural resources occurs primarily at the local level. AU - Baker, Nicole AU - Beger, Maria AU - McClennen, Caleb AU - Ishoda, Albon AU - Edwards, Florence DA - 2011 DO - 10.1155/2011/273034 LA - en PY - 2011 SP - 273034 ST - Reimaanlok: A national framework for conservation area planning in the Marshall Islands T2 - Journal of Marine Biology TI - Reimaanlok: A national framework for conservation area planning in the Marshall Islands VL - 2011 Y2 - 2017/09/22/23:18:37 ID - 22382 ER - TY - JOUR AB - In Palau, calcification rates of two reef-building coral genera (Porites and Favia) are maintained across a strong natural gradient in aragonite saturation state (Ωar) ranging from 3.7 to 2.3. This observation contrasts the strong sensitivity to decreasing Ωar that these genera demonstrate in both laboratory CO2 manipulation experiments and in field studies. Moreover, in contrast to other naturally more acidic coral reefs, benthic communities in Palau's low-Ωar (Ωar = 2.3) Rock Island reefs display ecological indices consistent with healthy communities. A laboratory CO2 manipulation experiment and a field-based reciprocal transplant were used to investigate whether the apparent lack of sensitivity to ocean acidification of Palau's Porites corals can be attributed to local adaptation to chronic acidification or to environmental factors that allow corals to thrive despite extreme pH conditions. In a two-month laboratory incubation, calcification rates of Palau Porites from both environments were insensitive to changes in Ωar over the range 1.5 to 3.0, suggestive of an adaptive, rather than environmental, mechanism for acidification tolerance. However, in the reciprocal transplant, corals transplanted between reefs at different ambient Ωar levels showed significant declines in calcification rates and high mortality, while corals returned back to their reef of origin were alive after 17 months in the field. Interpreted within the framework of the experimental result, the failure of pH/Ωar-tolerant corals to successfully transplant between different reef sites hints at local adaptation to other (non-pH) environmental factors such as light, temperature, and/or flow that co-vary with Ωar across Palau's natural acidification gradient. AU - Barkley, Hannah C. AU - Cohen, Anne L. AU - McCorkle, Daniel C. AU - Golbuu, Yimnang DA - 2017/04// DO - 10.1016/j.jembe.2017.01.003 DP - ScienceDirect KW - Adaptation Palau Ocean acidification Calcification Corals Reciprocal transplant PY - 2017 SN - 0022-0981 SP - 7-14 ST - Mechanisms and thresholds for pH tolerance in Palau corals T2 - Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology TI - Mechanisms and thresholds for pH tolerance in Palau corals VL - 489 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:08:58 ID - 22383 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barnett, J. DA - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s10113-010-0160-2 KW - Small Islands Agriculture Fisheries Development Vulnerability CORAL-REEFS ADAPTATION IMPACTS POLICY OCEAN FISH Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Environmental Sciences & Ecology PY - 2011 SN - 1436-3798 SP - S229-S237 ST - Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: Food production and food security T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: Food production and food security VL - 11 ID - 22384 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace. AU - Barnett, Jon AU - Adger, W. Neil DA - 2007/08/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003 DP - ScienceDirect IS - 6 KW - climate change Human security state functions Violent conflict PY - 2007 SN - 0962-6298 SP - 639-655 ST - Climate change, human security and violent conflict T2 - Political Geography T3 - Climate Change and Conflict TI - Climate change, human security and violent conflict VL - 26 ID - 22385 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Barnett, J. A2 - Busse, M. AU - Barnett, Jon AU - Busse, Mark AU - Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research C1 - Christchurch C4 - 97828796-9b7a-44d9-8d67-f4e2fc210fe0 CY - Christchurch, NZ PB - Macmillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies PY - 2002 SN - 9781877175077 SP - 75-77 ST - Conclusions on resilience to climate variability in Pacific Island countries T2 - Proceedings of the APN Workshop on Ethnographic Perspectives on Resilience to Climate Variability in Pacific Island Countries, Apia, Samoa, December 2001 TI - Conclusions on resilience to climate variability in Pacific Island countries ID - 22386 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Resettlement of people living on islands in anticipation of climate impacts risks maladaptation, but some forms of population movement carry fewer risks and larger rewards in terms of adapting to climate change. AU - Barnett, Jon AU - O'Neill, Saffron J. DA - 2012/01// DO - 10.1038/nclimate1334 DP - www.nature.com IS - 1 KW - Climate-change adaptation Climate-change impacts LA - en PY - 2012 SN - 1758-678X SP - 8-10 ST - Islands, resettlement and adaptation T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Islands, resettlement and adaptation VL - 2 Y2 - 2017/09/22/21:26:41 ID - 22387 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes. AU - Le Bars, Dewi AU - Drijfhout, Sybren AU - de Vries, Hylke DA - 2017 DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512 DP - Institute of Physics IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 044013 ST - A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss VL - 12 ID - 22388 ER - TY - NEWS AU - Bartlett, Tony DA - 1995/09/07/ PY - 1995 SP - 1-3 ST - Three Years Later, Kauai Tourism Still Feels the Effect of Iniki’s Blow T2 - Travel Weekly TI - Three Years Later, Kauai Tourism Still Feels the Effect of Iniki’s Blow VL - 54 ID - 22389 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Bassiouni, Maoya DA - 2016/11// M3 - Pacific Islands Climate Science Center - Final Report PB - USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center PY - 2016 ST - Development of Statistical Methods to Estimate Baseline and Future Low-Flow Characteristics of Ungaged Streams in Hawai‘i TI - Development of Statistical Methods to Estimate Baseline and Future Low-Flow Characteristics of Ungaged Streams in Hawai‘i UR - https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/58502aaee4b0f17c5d2512d1 Y2 - 2017/09/25/ ID - 22390 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate. AU - Bassiouni, Maoya AU - Vogel, Richard M. AU - Archfield, Stacey A. DA - 2016/12/01/ DO - 10.1002/2016WR018718 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 12 KW - Hawaii freshwater climate change water elasticity 1833 Hydroclimatology 1860 Streamflow 1874 Ungaged basins low flows panel regression regional hydrology LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 1944-7973 SP - 9470-9494 ST - Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins T2 - Water Resources Research TI - Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins VL - 52 Y2 - 2017/02/03/18:31:34 ID - 22391 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Bell, Johann AU - Taylor, Mary CY - Penang, Malaysia DA - 2015 KW - Adaptation policy marine ecosystems terrestrial ecosystems impact fisheries agriculture NV - Program Report 2015-15 PB - WorldFish PY - 2015 SN - 2015-15 ST - Building Climate-Resilient Food Systems for Pacific Islands TI - Building Climate-Resilient Food Systems for Pacific Islands UR - http://pubs.iclarm.net/resource_centre/2015-15.pdf ID - 22392 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Pacific Island countries have an extraordinary dependence on fisheries and aquaculture. Maintaining the benefits from the sector is a difficult task, now made more complex by climate change. Here we report how changes to the atmosphere–ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region. We found winners and losers—tuna are expected to be more abundant in the east and freshwater aquaculture and fisheries are likely to be more productive. Conversely, coral reef fisheries could decrease by 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture may be less efficient. We demonstrate how the economic and social implications can be addressed within the sector—tuna and freshwater aquaculture can help support growing populations as coral reefs, coastal fisheries and mariculture decline. AU - Bell, Johann D. AU - Ganachaud, Alexandre AU - Gehrke, Peter C. AU - Griffiths, Shane P. AU - Hobday, Alistair J. AU - Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove AU - Johnson, Johanna E. AU - Le Borgne, Robert AU - Lehodey, Patrick AU - Lough, Janice M. AU - Matear, Richard J. AU - Pickering, Timothy D. AU - Pratchett, Morgan S. AU - Gupta, Alex Sen AU - Senina, Inna AU - Waycott, Michelle DA - 2013/06// DO - 10.1038/nclimate1838 DP - www.nature.com IS - 6 KW - Ecosystems coral reefs Adaptation marine ecosystems fisheries Resilience freshwater ecosystems ocean and marine resources Freshwater ecology LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 1758-678X SP - 591-599 ST - Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change VL - 3 Y2 - 2016/08/05/21:24:11 ID - 22393 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Blondel, Alice CY - New York, NY DA - 2012 NV - Asia-Pacific Human Development Report Background Papers Series 2012/12 PB - United Nations Development Program PY - 2012 SP - 96 ST - Climate Change Fuelling Resource-Based Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific TI - Climate Change Fuelling Resource-Based Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific UR - https://www.uncclearn.org/sites/default/files/inventory/undp304.pdf ID - 22394 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Brainard, Russell E. AU - Oliver, Thomas AU - McPhaden, Michael J. AU - Cohen, Anne AU - Venegas, Roberto AU - Heenan, A. AU - Vargas-Angel, Bernardo AU - Rotjan, Randi AU - Mangubhai, Sangeeta AU - Flint, Elizabeth AU - Hunter, Susan A. DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0128.1 IS - 1 PY - 2018 SP - S21-S26 ST - Ecological impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective] T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - Ecological impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective] VL - 99 ID - 22395 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Brown and Caldwell DA - 2016/09// PY - 2016 SP - 53 ST - Technical Memorandum #1: Impacts of Climate Change on Honolulu Water Supplies and Planning Strategies for Mitigation—Understanding Future Climate, Demand, and Land Use Projections for the Island of Oahu TI - Technical Memorandum #1: Impacts of Climate Change on Honolulu Water Supplies and Planning Strategies for Mitigation—Understanding Future Climate, Demand, and Land Use Projections for the Island of Oahu ID - 22396 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A decade of systematic research on climate change and armed conflict has revealed a number of interesting patterns but few results that are robust across studies. This essay takes stock of the quantitative empirical literature, identifies central limitations, and presents five priorities for future research in the field. While these priorities refer to technical and operational aspects of statistical analysis, their underlying motivation, and objective, is to develop a better and more refined theoretical understanding of possible indirect and conditional connections between climatic changes and violent conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:269–275. doi: 10.1002/wcc.336 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article. AU - Buhaug, Halvard DA - 2015/05/01/ DO - 10.1002/wcc.336 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 1757-7799 SP - 269-275 ST - Climate–conflict research: Some reflections on the way forward T2 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change TI - Climate–conflict research: Some reflections on the way forward VL - 6 ID - 22397 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Hixson, Lindsay AU - Hepler, Bradford B. AU - Kim, Myoung Ouk CY - Washington, DC DA - 2012 NV - 2010 Census Briefs: C2010BR-12 PB - U.S. Census Bureau PY - 2012 SP - 22 ST - The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Population: 2010 TI - The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Population: 2010 UR - https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-12.pdf ID - 22398 ER - TY - WEB AU - U.S. Census Bureau CY - Washington, DC DA - 2016 PB - U.S. Census Bureau PY - 2016 ST - Data: State Population Totals Tables: 2010-2016 TI - Data: State Population Totals Tables: 2010-2016 UR - https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk ID - 22399 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. AU - Burrows, Kate AU - Kinney, Patrick L. DA - 2016/04/22/ DO - 10.3390/ijerph13040443 DP - PubMed IS - 4 KW - climate change Climate Humans migration conflict Emigration and Immigration Refugees Warfare LA - eng PY - 2016 SN - 1660-4601 SP - 443 ST - Exploring the climate change, migration and conflict nexus T2 - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health TI - Exploring the climate change, migration and conflict nexus VL - 13 ID - 22400 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere/'s most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones—experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Nino events and southward during La Nina events. During strong El Nino events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing—by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator—and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events. AU - Cai, Wenju AU - Lengaigne, Matthieu AU - Borlace, Simon AU - Collins, Matthew AU - Cowan, Tim AU - McPhaden, Michael J. AU - Timmermann, Axel AU - Power, Scott AU - Brown, Josephine AU - Menkes, Christophe AU - Ngari, Arona AU - Vincent, Emmanuel M. AU - Widlansky, Matthew J. DA - 2012/08/16/ DO - 10.1038/nature11358 DP - www.nature.com IS - 7411 KW - drought flood extreme events ENSO Rainfall climate projections Climate science Earth sciences South Pacific Convergence Zone American Samoa Environmental science LA - en PY - 2012 SN - 0028-0836 SP - 365-369 ST - More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming T2 - Nature TI - More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming VL - 488 Y2 - 2016/01/29/02:42:07 ID - 22401 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Camp, Richard J. AU - Berkowitz, S. Paul AU - Brinck, Kevin AU - Jacobi, James D. AU - Price, Jonathan P. AU - Fortini, Lucas B. CY - Manoa, HI DO - 10.3133/sir20185012 PB - USGS Pacific Islands Climate Science Center PY - 2018 SN - Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5012 SP - 151 ST - Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Vegetation-Management Strategies in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park TI - Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Vegetation-Management Strategies in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park UR - https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5362af3ee4b0c409c6289bc7 ID - 22402 ER - TY - JOUR AB - While islands have been identified in numerous discourses as being highly vulnerable, food security was a cornerstone of many traditional Pacific Island societies from inland and coastal communities in large islands with considerable natural assets to those that occupied extremely small, low-lying atolls with little or no soil and limited water resources. This was sustained through agro-ecological biodiversity, the production of surpluses which enabled food preservation and storage to be practiced and underpinned networks of exchange and mutual support that were particularly important during times of hardship such as disruptive extreme natural events, the use of resilient crops and using ‘famine’ foods. Colonisation, the introduction of new religions, the spread of capitalism, most recently in the context of globalisation, has seen many of these practices decline (some have disappeared altogether) as crop diversity has been reduced (making way for export products such as copra), food storage and preservation are now rarely practised, resilient crops have been replaced, famine foods have lost their importance in the face of disaster relief, and many traditional networks have declined. Food imports have become critical, not only in the growing urban areas, but also in rural communities. The paper concludes by addressing key challenges facing Pacific Island countries in order to revitalise those traditional elements of food security in ways that are likely to find acceptance in contemporary society and enable them to adapt to the effects of climate change. AU - Campbell, John DA - 2014/10/07/ DO - 10.1007/s10113-014-0697-6 DP - ResearchGate PY - 2014 SP - 1313-1324 ST - Development, global change and traditional food security in Pacific Island countries T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Development, global change and traditional food security in Pacific Island countries VL - 15 ID - 22403 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Campbell, John AU - Warrick, Olivia CY - Fiji DA - 2014 N1 - ISBN 978-982-91410-3-3 PB - UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Pacific Office PY - 2014 RP - ISBN 978-982-91410-3-3 SP - 54 ST - Climate Change and Migration Issues in the Pacific TI - Climate Change and Migration Issues in the Pacific UR - http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Climate-Change-and-Migration-Issues-in-the-Pacific.pdf ID - 22404 ER - TY - EBOOK AU - CIA C4 - 49bc0ec5-1c4c-4a8a-8351-acf1c30dd2df CY - Washington, DC DA - 2017 PB - U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) PY - 2017 TI - The World Factbook UR - https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ ID - 22405 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure. AU - Cheriton, Olivia M. AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Rosenberger, Kurt J. DA - 2016/05/01/ DO - 10.1002/2015JC011231 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 5 KW - 4560 Surface waves and tides 4220 Coral reef systems 4546 Nearshore processes flooding 4321 Climate impact overwash coral reef sea level rise 4217 Coastal processes infragravity waves runup LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 2169-9291 SP - 3121-3140 ST - Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans TI - Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding VL - 121 Y2 - 2017/09/23/01:19:11 ID - 22406 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Chowdhury, Md Rashed AU - Barnston, Anthony G. AU - Guard, Charles ‘Chip’ AU - Duncan, Sarah AU - Schroeder, Thomas A. AU - Chu, P. S. DA - 2010/10/01/ DO - 10.1002/wea.468 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 10 LA - en PY - 2010 SN - 1477-8696 SP - 263-268 ST - Sea-level variability and change in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006–2008 T2 - Weather TI - Sea-level variability and change in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006–2008 VL - 65 Y2 - 2017/05/03/20:25:32 ID - 22407 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We updated and expanded a model of the pelagic ecosystem for the area of the central North Pacific occupied by the Hawaii-based longline fishery. Specifically, results from the most recent diet studies were used to expand the representation of the lesser-known non-target fish species (e.g. lancetfish, opah, snake mackerel) and 9 mid-trophic micronekton functional groups. The model framework Ecopath with Ecosim was used to construct an ecosystem energy budget and to examine how changes in the various micronekton groups impact apex predator biomass. Model results indicate that while micronekton fishes represented approximately 54% of micronekton biomass, they accounted for only 28% of the micronekton production. By contrast, crustaceans represented 24% of the biomass and accounted for 44% of production. Simulated ecosystem changes resulting from changes to micronekton groups demonstrated that crustaceans and mollusks are the most important direct trophic pathways to the top of the food web. Other groups appear to comprise relatively inefficient pathways or ‘trophic dead-ends’ that are loosely coupled to the top of the food web (e.g. gelatinous animals), such that biomass declines in these functional groups resulted in increased biomass at the highest trophic levels by increasing energy flow through more efficient pathways. Overall, simulated declines in the micronekton groups resulted in small changes in biomass at the very top of the food web, suggesting that this ecosystem is relatively ecologically resilient with diverse food web pathways. However, further understanding of how sensitive micronekton are to changes in ocean chemistry and temperature resulting from climate change is needed to fully evaluate and predict potential ecosystem changes. AU - Choy, Anela AU - Wabnitz, Colette AU - Weijerman, Mariska AU - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe AU - Polovina, Jeffrey DA - 2016/05/10/ DO - 10.3354/meps11680 DP - ResearchGate PY - 2016 SP - 9-25 ST - Finding the way to the top: How the composition of oceanic mid-trophic micronekton groups determines apex predator biomass in the central North Pacific T2 - Marine Ecology Progress Series TI - Finding the way to the top: How the composition of oceanic mid-trophic micronekton groups determines apex predator biomass in the central North Pacific VL - 549 ID - 22408 ER - TY - JOUR AB - For the first time, trends of five climate change indices related to extreme precipitation events in the Hawaiian Islands are investigated using daily observational records from the 1950s to 2007. Four indices [simple daily intensity index (SDII), total number of day with precipitation ≥25.4 mm (R25), annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount (R5d), and the fraction of annual total precipitation from events exceeding the 1961–90 95th percentile (R95p)] describe the intensity (SDII), frequency (R25), and magnitude (R5d and R95p) of precipitation extremes, and the fifth index [consecutive dry days (CDD)] describes drought conditions. The annual probability density functions (PDFs) of precipitation indices for two epochs (i.e., 1950–79 and 1980–2007) are analyzed. Since the 1980s, there has been a change in the types of precipitation intensity, resulting in more frequent light precipitation and less frequent moderate and heavy precipitation intensity. The other three precipitation-related indices (R25, R5d, and R95p) demonstrate a shift toward the left of the distribution over time, suggesting shorter annual number of days with intense precipitation and smaller consecutive 5-day precipitation amounts and smaller fraction of annual precipitation due to events exceeding the 1961–90 95th percentile in the recent epoch relative to the first epoch. The changes of PDF distribution for SDII, R25, R5d, and CDD are significant at the 5% level according to a two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. A nonparametric trend analysis is then performed for four periods, with different starting years (e.g., the 1950s, the 1960s) but the same ending year (2007). Long-term downward trends are evident for four precipitation-related indices, and long-term upward trends are observed for CDD. Geographically, Kauai and Oahu are dominated by long-term decreasing trends for four precipitation-related indices, while increasing trends play the major role over the island of Hawaii. The upward trends of drought conditions in the long run are predominant on all the major Hawaiian Islands. To investigate whether the trends are stable throughout the time, the derivatives of trends for each of the 30-yr running series are calculated (e.g., 1950–79, 1951–80, … , 1978–2007) for four precipitation-related indices at each station. For Kauai and Oahu, positive derivatives prevail for all indices in the presence of long-term negative trends, suggestive of a phase change in precipitation extremes and such extremes showing an upswing recently. For the island of Hawaii, there is also an indication of phase reversal over the last 60 yr, with negative derivatives occurring in the presence of the background positive trends. A positive relationship is found between the precipitation indices and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), implying more precipitation extremes during La Niña years and vice versa for El Niño years. Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies of indices are presented for the La Niña/−PDO minus El Niño/+PDO composites. AU - Chu, Pao-Shin AU - Chen, Ying Ruan AU - Schroeder, Thomas A. DA - 2010/05/20/ DO - 10.1175/2010JCLI3484.1 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) IS - 18 PY - 2010 SN - 0894-8755 SP - 4881-4900 ST - Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate VL - 23 ID - 22409 ER - TY - CPAPER AB - We use time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR GRACE mission using a mascon approach to estimate the ice mass balance of the Earth’s Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps (GICs), excluding the Antarctic and the Greenland peripheral glaciers, between January 2003 and October 2014. We estimate a total ice mass loss equal to -217 ± 33 Gt/yr, equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.6±0.09 mm/yr. The global signal is driven by a few regions, contributing to almost of 75% of the total ice mass loss. Among these areas, the main contributor is the Canadian Arctic Archipelago with a total mass loss of -75 ± 9 Gt/yr, followed by Alaska (-51 ± 10 Gt/yr), Patagonia (-26 ± 10 Gt/yr) and the High Mountains of Asia (-25 ± 13 Gt/yr). The mass loss for most of the arctic regions is not constant, but accelerates with time. The Canadian Archipelago, in particular, undergoes a strong acceleration in mass waste (-7±1 Gt/yr2). The signal acceleration is mainly driven by the northern located Queen Elisabeth Islands (-4.5 ± 0.6 Gt/yr2). A similar behavior is observed for Svalbard and the Russian Arctic. In this second case, however, we observe an enhanced mass loss starting from the second decade of the 21st century after a period of nearly stable mass balance. The observed acceleration helps reconcile regional ice mass estimates obtained for different time periods. AU - Ciraci, Enrico AU - Velicogna, Isabella AU - Wahr, John M. AU - Swenson, Sean C. CY - San Francisco, CA DA - December 2015 PB - American Geophysical Union PY - 2015 T2 - 2015 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting TI - Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps from GRACE during 2002-2015 UR - https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/74083 Y2 - 2017/09/22/20:50:55 ID - 22410 ER - TY - JOUR AB - As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades. AU - Constable, Amy Louise DA - 2017/04/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10113-016-1004-5 DP - link.springer.com IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X SP - 1029-1038 ST - Climate change and migration in the Pacific: Options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Climate change and migration in the Pacific: Options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands VL - 17 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:04:52 ID - 22411 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Corendea, Cosmin AU - Bello, Valeria AU - Bryar, Timothy CY - Tokyo, Japan DA - 2015/09// N1 - ISBN: 9789822020 PB - Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat; UN University GCM and EHS PY - 2015 RP - ISBN: 9789822020 SP - 33 ST - Promoting Human Security and Minimizing Conflict Associated with Forced-Migration in the Pacific Region T2 - Pacific Policy Brief TI - Promoting Human Security and Minimizing Conflict Associated with Forced-Migration in the Pacific Region UR - https://gcm.unu.edu/publications/policy-reports/pacific-prejudice-and-conflict-in-forced-migration-issues.html ID - 22412 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Corlew, Laura Kate AU - Keener, Victoria AU - Finucane, Melissa AU - Brewington, Laura AU - Nunn-Crichton, Rachel DA - 2015/12// DO - 10.1016/j.psi.2015.07.004 DP - CrossRef IS - 3 KW - Vulnerability Adaptation networks policy LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 11320559 SP - 133-146 ST - Using social network analysis to assess communications and develop networking tools among climate change professionals across the Pacific Islands region T2 - Psychosocial Intervention TI - Using social network analysis to assess communications and develop networking tools among climate change professionals across the Pacific Islands region VL - 24 Y2 - 2016/01/15/01:28:49 ID - 22413 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is a major threat to food security in Pacific Island countries, with declines in food production and increasing variability in food supplies already evident across the region. Such impacts have already led to observed consequences for human health, safety and economic prosperity. Enhancing the adaptive capacity of Pacific Island communities is one way to reduce vulnerability and is underpinned by the extent to which people can access, understand and use new knowledge to inform their decision-making processes. However, effective engagement of Pacific Island communities in climate adaption remains variable and is an ongoing and significant challenge. Here, we use a qualitative research approach to identify the impediments to engaging Pacific Island communities in the adaptations needed to safeguard food security. The main barriers include cultural differences between western science and cultural knowledge, a lack of trust among local communities and external scientists, inappropriate governance structures, and a lack of political and technical support. We identify the importance of adaptation science, local social networks, key actors (i.e., influential and trusted individuals), and relevant forms of knowledge exchange as being critical to overcoming these barriers. We also identify the importance of co-ordination with existing on-ground activities to effectively leverage, as opposed to duplicating, capacity. AU - Cvitanovic, C. AU - Crimp, S. AU - Fleming, A. AU - Bell, J. AU - Howden, M. AU - Hobday, A. J. AU - Taylor, M. AU - Cunningham, R. DA - 2016/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2016.01.003 DP - ScienceDirect KW - Adaptive capacity Climate adaptation Participation Engagement Knowledge exchange Trust PY - 2016 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 53-62 ST - Linking adaptation science to action to build food secure Pacific Island communities T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Linking adaptation science to action to build food secure Pacific Island communities VL - 11 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:06:39 ID - 22414 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. AU - Dangendorf, Sönke AU - Marcos, Marta AU - Wöppelmann, Guy AU - Conrad, Clinton P. AU - Frederikse, Thomas AU - Riva, Riccardo DA - 2017/06/06/ DO - 10.1073/pnas.1616007114 DP - www.pnas.org.eres.library.manoa.hawaii.edu IS - 23 KW - tide gauges fingerprints global mean sea level vertical land motion LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490 SP - 5946-5951 ST - Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise VL - 114 Y2 - 2017/09/22/20:57:45 ID - 22415 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. AU - Deser, Clara AU - Alexander, Michael A. AU - Xie, Shang-Ping AU - Phillips, Adam S. DA - 2010 DO - 10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453 DP - Annual Reviews IS - 1 PY - 2010 SP - 115-143 ST - Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms T2 - Annual Review of Marine Science TI - Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms VL - 2 ID - 22416 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We revisit the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget during the whole altimetry era (January 1993 to December 2015) using a large number of data sets. The budget approach allows quantifying the TOPEX A altimeter drift (amounting 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr over 1993–1998). Accounting for this correction and using ensemble means for the GMSL and components lead to closure of the sea level budget (trend of the residual time series being 0.0 ± 0.22 mm/yr). The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget. AU - Dieng, H. B. AU - Cazenave, A. AU - Meyssignac, B. AU - Ablain, M. DA - 2017/04/28/ DO - 10.1002/2017GL073308 IS - 8 KW - Sea level 1641 Sea level change 4556 Sea level: variations and mean satellite altimetry sea level budget PY - 2017 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 3744–3751 ST - New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach VL - 44 ID - 22417 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Management of forest carbon (C) stocks is an increasingly prominent land-use issue. Knowledge of carbon storage in tropical forests is improving, but regional variations are still poorly understood, and this constrains forest management and conservation efforts associated with carbon valuation mechanisms (e.g., carbon markets). This deficiency is especially pronounced in tropical islands and low-lying coastal areas where climate change impacts are expected to be among the most severe. This study presents the first field estimate of island-wide carbon storage in ecosystems of Oceania, with special attention to the regional role of coastal mangroves, which occur on islands and coastal zones throughout the tropics. On two island groups of Micronesia (Yap and Palau), we sampled all above- and belowground C pools, including soil and vegetation, in 24 sites distributed evenly among the three major vegetation structural types: mangroves, upland forests, and open savannas (generally on degraded lands formerly forested). Total C stocks were estimated to be 3.9 and 15.2 Tg C on Yap and Palau, respectively. Mangroves contained by far the largest per-hectare C pools (830–1218 Mg C ha−1), with deep organic-rich soils alone storing more C (631–754 Mg C ha−1) than all pools combined in upland systems. Despite covering just 12–13% of land area, mangroves accounted for 24–34% of total island C stocks. Savannas (156–203 Mg C ha−1) contained significantly lower C stocks than upland forests (375–437 Mg C ha−1), suggesting that reforesting savannas where appropriate has high potential for carbon-based funding to aid restoration objectives. For mangroves, these results demonstrate the key role of these systems within the broader context of C storage in island and coastal landscapes. Sustainable management of mangrove forests and their large C stocks is of high importance at the regional scale, and climate change mitigation programs such as REDD+ could play a large role in avoiding deforestation of mangroves where this is a management objective. AU - Donato, D. C. AU - Kauffman, J. B. AU - Mackenzie, R. A. AU - Ainsworth, A. AU - Pfleeger, A. Z. DA - 2012/04/30/ DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.12.004 DP - ScienceDirect KW - Forest Deforestation Land use REDD+ Soil carbon PY - 2012 SN - 0301-4797 SP - 89-96 ST - Whole-island carbon stocks in the tropical Pacific: Implications for mangrove conservation and upland restoration T2 - Journal of Environmental Management TI - Whole-island carbon stocks in the tropical Pacific: Implications for mangrove conservation and upland restoration VL - 97 (Suppl. C) Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:48:36 ID - 22418 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Eakin, C. Mark AU - Liu, Gang AU - Gomez, Andrea M. AU - De La Cour, Jacqueline L. AU - Heron, Scott F. AU - Skirving, William J. AU - Geiger, Erick F. AU - Tirak, Kyle V. AU - Strong, Alan E. DA - 2016/04// IS - 1 PY - 2016 SP - 20-26 ST - Global coral bleaching 2014-2017: Status and an appeal for observations T2 - Reef Encounter TI - Global coral bleaching 2014-2017: Status and an appeal for observations UR - http://coralreefs.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Reef-Encounter-43-April-2016-HR.pdf VL - 31 ID - 22420 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Regional climate change scenarios are important for understanding their impacts on environments of oceanic islands. This study presents a statistical method that estimates elevation-dependent warming rates for the Hawaiian Islands. The downscaling is facilitated by two important aspects found in the climate change scenarios produced by general circulation models. First, climate model simulations show a strong relationship between height and amplitude of the temperature change over the northern subtropical Pacific. Second, the ratio between the upper air temperature and the surface temperature change is independent of the global warming rate. This information is exploited to produce high-resolution maps with the expected range of future temperature changes for the Hawaiian Islands by the mid and late 21st century. The expected surface warming and its uncertainty is analysed with an ensemble of global climate scenarios for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). It is found that the highest mountain elevations warm by a factor 1.5 ± 0.2 compared with the ambient surface temperature anomalies at the sea level. In scenario RCP8.5, high elevations above 3000 m reach up to 4–5 °C warmer temperatures by the late 21st century. The uncertainty due to multi-model ensemble spread is overall larger than the statistical downscaling uncertainty, except for the highest elevations where both contribute equally to the uncertainty range. For the late 21st century, however, the largest uncertainty stems from the choice of emission scenarios. AU - Elison Timm, Oliver DA - 2017/08/01/ DO - 10.1002/joc.5065 DP - Wiley Online Library KW - Subtropics Hawaii Temperature Statistical Downscaling elevation-dependent warming LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1097-0088 SP - 1093-1104 ST - Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors T2 - International Journal of Climatology TI - Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors VL - 37 ID - 22421 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Field, Michael E. AU - Cochran, Susan A. AU - Logan, Joshua B. AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. CY - Reston, VA M1 - USGS Scientific Investigation Report 2007-5101 PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2008 SN - 9781411322882 1411322886 SP - 180 ST - The Coral Reef of South Moloka`i, Hawai`i; Portrait of a Sediment-Threatened Fringing Reef TI - The Coral Reef of South Moloka`i, Hawai`i; Portrait of a Sediment-Threatened Fringing Reef UR - https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5101/ Y2 - 2017/09/22/21:43:11 ID - 22422 ER - TY - EJOUR AU - Fletcher, Charles H. C4 - 7b5fe2d1-69d1-4bf4-a562-c61808cb43ac CY - Honolulu, HI. DA - 2016/09/06/ PY - 2016 SE - 6 Sep 2016 ST - IUCN: We need public service announcements about climate change T2 - Honolulu Civil Beat TI - IUCN: We need public service announcements about climate change UR - http://www.civilbeat.org/2016/09/iucn-we-need-public-service-announcements-about-climate-change/ ID - 22423 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Fletcher, Charles H. AU - Richmond, Bruce M. CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2010 M3 - A Report to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service NV - Report of Findings 2010 PB - Hawaii Sea Grant College Program PY - 2010 SP - 29 ST - Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Food and Water Security, Climate Risk Management, and Adaptive Strategies TI - Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Food and Water Security, Climate Risk Management, and Adaptive Strategies UR - http://national.doe.fm/Climate%20Change/Climate%20change%20in%20the%20FSM.pdf ID - 22424 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Forest Peoples Programme AU - International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity AU - Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity CY - Moreton-in-Marsh, England DA - 2016 N1 - (FPP) PY - 2016 RP - (FPP) SP - 79 ST - Local Biodiversity Outlooks: Indigenous Peoples’ and Local Communities’ Contributions to the Implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020. A complement to the fourth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook T2 - Local Biodiversity Outlooks TI - Local Biodiversity Outlooks: Indigenous Peoples’ and Local Communities’ Contributions to the Implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020. A complement to the fourth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook UR - https://www.cbd.int/gbo/gbo4/publication/lbo-en.pdf ID - 22425 ER - TY - RPRT AB - In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation. AU - Fortini, Lucas AU - Price, Jonathan AU - Jacobi, James AU - Vorsino, Adam AU - Burgett, Jeff AU - Brinck, Kevin AU - ‘Ohukani‘ohi‘a Gon III, Sam AU - Koob, Gregory AU - Paxton, Eben CY - Hilo, HI DA - 2013/11// KW - Hawaii Vulnerability Ecosystems migration NV - Technical Report HCSU-044 PB - University of Hawai‘i at Hilo, Hawai‘i Cooperative Studies Unit PY - 2013 SP - 134 ST - A Landscape-Based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for All Native Hawaiian Plants TI - A Landscape-Based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for All Native Hawaiian Plants UR - http://hilo.hawaii.edu/hcsu/documents/TR44_Fortini_plant_vulnerability_assessment.pdf ID - 22426 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations. AU - Fortini, Lucas B. AU - Vorsino, Adam E. AU - Amidon, Fred A. AU - Paxton, Eben H. AU - Jacobi, James D. DA - 2015 DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0140389 DP - pubs.er.usgs.gov PY - 2015 SP - e0144311 ST - Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options VL - 10 ID - 22427 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Fortini, Lucas B. CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2016/11// PY - 2016 ST - Final Project Report for "Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai`i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems" TI - Final Project Report for "Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai`i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems" UR - https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pierc/science/expanding-dynamic-model-species-vulnerability-climate-change-hawai-i-and-other?qt-science_center_objects=4#qt-science_center_objects ID - 22428 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Spatial patterns of rainfall in Hawai‘i are among the most diverse in the world. As the global climate warms, it is important to understand observed rainfall variations to provide context for future changes. This is especially important for isolated oceanic islands where freshwater resources are limited, and understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the supply of freshwater is critical. Utilizing a high-resolution gridded data set of monthly and annual rainfall for Hawai‘i from January 1920 to December 2012, seasonal and annual trends were calculated for every 250-m pixel across the state and mapped to produce spatially continuous trend maps. To assess the stability of these trends, a running trend analysis was performed on 34 selected stations. From 1920 to 2012, over 90% of the state experienced drying trends, with Hawai‘i Island, and in particular the western part of the island, experiencing the largest significant long-term declines in annual and dry season rainfall. The running trend analysis highlighted the multi-decadal variability present in these trends, and revealed that the only region in the state with persistent annual and dry season trends through the study period is the western part of Hawai‘i Island; for most other regions, the drying trends were not significant until the most recent part of the record was included. These results support previous studies that indicate drying across the state over recent decades, and reveal the timing of upward and downward trends as well as important spatial details for natural resource management in Hawai‘i. AU - Frazier, Abby G. AU - Giambelluca, Thomas W. DA - 2017/04/01/ DO - 10.1002/joc.4862 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 5 KW - Rainfall trends Hawai‘i Mann–Kendall running trend analysis LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1097-0088 SP - 2522-2531 ST - Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012 T2 - International Journal of Climatology TI - Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012 VL - 37 Y2 - 2017/05/31/00:47:29 ID - 22429 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Freshwater, Alan AU - Talagi, Deveraux CY - Suva, Fiji DA - 2010 NV - SOPAC Technical Report 437 PB - South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) PY - 2010 SP - 49 ST - Desalination in Pacific Island Countries. A Preliminary Overview TI - Desalination in Pacific Island Countries. A Preliminary Overview UR - https://gsd.spc.int/sopac/docs/SOPAC%20Technical%20Report%20437%20Desalination%20for%20Pacific%20Island%20Countries.pdf ID - 22430 ER - TY - WEB AU - Friday, Kathleen AU - Garcia, Victor, Jr. AU - Haws, Maria AU - Manner, Harley AU - Marra, John AU - Potemra, James T. AU - Rufus, Lajkit DA - 2017 KW - ENSO Republic of the Marshall Islands agriculture tools PY - 2017 ST - Agroforestry in the Climate of the Marshall Islands TI - Agroforestry in the Climate of the Marshall Islands UR - http://oos.soest.hawaii.edu/pacific-rcc/Marshalls%20Agroforestry/site/ ID - 22432 ER - TY - CPAPER A2 - Moosa, M.K. A2 - Soemodihardjo, S. A2 - Soegiarto, A. A2 - Romimohtarto, K. A2 - Nontji, A. A2 - Soekarno A2 - Suharsono AB - The community in the Ho‘olehu Hawaiian Homesteads on the island of Moloka‘i is strengthening community influence and accountability for the health and long-term sustainability of their marine resources through revitalization of local traditions and resource knowledge. The traditional system in Hawai‘i emphasized social and cultural controls on fishing with acode of conduct that was strictly enforced. Local resource monitors, in conjunction with visiting scientists, are creating a predictive management tool based loosely on the Hawaiian moon calendar to guide responsible fishing practices. Community-sanctioned norms for fishing conduct are being reinforced through continual feedback based on local resource monitoring, education, and peer pressure. Hawaiian community building and proper cultural protocols are essential to understand and revitalize marine conservation traditions. AU - Friedlander, Alan AU - Poepoe, K. AU - Helm, K. AU - Bartram, P. AU - Maragos, J. AU - Abbott, I. PY - 2000 SP - 813-818 T2 - Proceedings of the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, Bali, 23-27 Oct. 2000. Vol. 2 TI - Application of Hawaiian traditions to community-based fishery management UR - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.603.5269&rep=rep1&type=pdf VL - 2 ID - 22433 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Changes in the frequency and intensity of the prevailing northeast and east trade winds from 1973-2009 are analyzed from four land stations in the Hawaiian Islands. A nonparametric robust trend analysis indicates a downward trend in northeast trade wind frequency since 1973. At the Honolulu International Airport, northeast trade wind days usually occurred 291 days per year 37 years ago are observed to occur only 210 days per year in 2009. In contrast, the frequency of the east trade winds has increased over the past 37 years. Comparison of observations from four ocean buoys with land stations for the last 26 years (1984–2009) is presented. The northeast trade frequency is found to decrease for all eight stations while the east trade winds are found to increase in frequency. These results are similar to the longer (1973–2009) data set. Most buoys revealed an increase in trade wind speeds since 1984. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II data are used to analyze surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) over the north Pacific. A northeast to east shifting of winds and an increase in SLP is found to occur from the 1980s to the 2000s epoch. Linear trends in reanalysis II from 1980 to 2009 indicated a strengthening of northeast trade winds over the Hawaiian Islands and in the subtropical eastern North Pacific with an extension of increased northerlies off the California coast. Meanwhile, southeast trades in the eastern North Pacific reduced their strength. Changes in trades in the western Pacific are relatively small. AU - Garza, Jessica A. AU - Chu, Pao-Shin AU - Norton, Chase W. AU - Schroeder, Thomas A. DA - 2012/06/16/ DO - 10.1029/2011JD016888 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - D11 KW - Pacific Ocean Hawaii winds and waves 3309 Climatology 1704 Atmospheric sciences 1872 Time series analysis 1984 Statistical methods: Descriptive 5445 Meteorology Hawaii climate non-parametric test trade winds LA - en PY - 2012 SN - 2156-2202 SP - D11109 ST - Changes of the prevailing trade winds over the islands of Hawaii and the North Pacific T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research TI - Changes of the prevailing trade winds over the islands of Hawaii and the North Pacific VL - 117 Y2 - 2016/01/15/23:04:41 ID - 22434 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Giambelluca, Thomas W. AU - Chen, Qi AU - Frazier, Abby G. AU - Price, Jonathan P. AU - Chen, Yi-Leng AU - Chu, Pao-Shin AU - Eischeid, Jon K. AU - Delparte, Donna M. DA - 2013/03/01/ DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00228.1 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) IS - 3 KW - Rainfall Hawaii freshwater PY - 2013 SN - 0003-0007 SP - 313-316 ST - Online rainfall atlas of Hawai‘i T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - Online rainfall atlas of Hawai‘i VL - 94 Y2 - 2016/01/15/23:12:08 ID - 22435 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region. AU - Gilman, Eric AU - Ellison, Joanna AU - Coleman, Richard DA - 2006/12/14/ DO - 10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y DP - link.springer.com IS - 1-3 KW - sea-level rise Mangrove terrestrial ecosystems American Samoa coastal Ecology Environmental Management Wetland erosion Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Monitoring/Environmental Analysis/Environmental Ecotoxicology LA - en PY - 2006 SN - 0167-6369, 1573-2959 SP - 105-130 ST - Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position T2 - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment TI - Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position VL - 124 Y2 - 2016/08/11/03:27:33 ID - 22436 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Gingerich, Stephen B. AU - Keener, Victoria AU - Finucane, Melissa L. CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2015 PB - East-West Center and USGS PY - 2015 SP - 2 ST - Climate Trends and Projections for Guam TI - Climate Trends and Projections for Guam UR - http://www.pacificrisa.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Pacific-RISA-Guam-flyer.pdf ID - 22437 ER - TY - JOUR AB - An unprecedented set of hydrologic observations was collected after the Dec 2008 seawater-flooding event on Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. By two days after the seawater flooding that occurred at the beginning of dry season, the observed salinity of water withdrawn by the island’s main skimming well increased to 100% seawater concentration, but by ten days later already decreased to only 10–20% of seawater fraction. However, the damaging impact on the potability of the groundwater supply (when pumped water had concentrations above 1% seawater fraction) lasted 22 months longer. The data collected make possible analyses of the hydrologic factors that control recovery and management of the groundwater-supply quality on Roi-Namur and on similar low-lying islands.With the observed data as a guide, three-dimensional numerical-model simulation analyses reveal how recovery is controlled by the island’s hydrology. These also allow evaluation of the efficacy of basic water-quality management/mitigation alternatives and elucidate how groundwater withdrawal and timing of the seawater-flooding event affect the length of recovery. Simulations show that, as might be expected, by adding surplus captured rainwater as artificial recharge, the freshwater-lens recovery period (after which potable groundwater may again be produced) can be shortened, with groundwater salinity remaining lower even during the dry season, a period during which no artificial recharge is applied. Simulations also show that the recovery period is not lengthened appreciably by groundwater withdrawals during recovery. Simulations further show that had the flooding event occurred at the start of the wet season, the recovery period would have been about 25% (5.5 months) shorter than actually occurred during the monitored flood that occurred at the dry-season start. Finally, analyses show that artificial recharge improves freshwater-lens water quality, making possible longer use of groundwater as a water supply throughout each year, even when no seawater flooding has occurred. AU - Gingerich, Stephen B. AU - Voss, Clifford I. AU - Johnson, Adam G. DA - 2017 DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.001 DP - pubs.er.usgs.gov PY - 2017 SP - 676688 ST - Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation T2 - Journal of Hydrology TI - Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation VL - 551 ID - 22438 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Gombos, M. AU - Atkinson, S. AU - Wongbusarakum, Supin CY - Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia PB - Micronesia Conservation Trust PY - 2013 SP - 118 ST - Adapting to a Changing Climate: Guide to Local Early Action Planning (LEAP) and Management Planning TI - Adapting to a Changing Climate: Guide to Local Early Action Planning (LEAP) and Management Planning UR - https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/climate-adaptation-training/adapting-to-a-changing-climate-guide-to-local-early-action-planning-leap-and-management-planning ID - 22439 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Government of Palau CY - Koror, Palau PB - Office of the President PY - 2015 SP - 30 ST - Palau Climate Change Policy: For Climate and Disaster Resilient Low Emissions Development TI - Palau Climate Change Policy: For Climate and Disaster Resilient Low Emissions Development UR - http://ccprojects.gsd.spc.int/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2.-Palau-Climate-Change-Policy.pdf ID - 22440 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Governor’s Economic Recovery Committee CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 1993/01// PY - 1993 SP - 50 ST - Imua: Kauai Beyond Hurricane Iniki TI - Imua: Kauai Beyond Hurricane Iniki ID - 22441 ER - TY - WEB AB - The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) is a regional entity based in Samoa focused on climate change and environmental issues affecting SIDS in the Pacific. SPREP... AU - Green Climate Fund CY - Incheon, Republic of Korea PB - Green Climate Fund PY - 2015 ST - Accredited Entity: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) TI - Accredited Entity: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) UR - http://www.greenclimate.fund/-/secretariat-of-the-pacific-regional-environment-programme ID - 22442 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Many of the world's largest cities face risk of sea-level rise (SLR) induced flooding owing to their limited elevations and proximities to the coastline. Within this century, global mean sea level is expected to reach magnitudes that will exceed the ground elevation of some built infrastructure. The concurrent rise of coastal groundwater will produce additional sources of inundation resulting from narrowing and loss of the vertical unsaturated subsurface space. This has implications for the dense network of buried and low-lying infrastructure that exists across urban coastal zones. Here, we describe a modeling approach that simulates narrowing of the unsaturated space and groundwater inundation (GWI) generated by SLR-induced lifting of coastal groundwater. The methodology combines terrain modeling, groundwater monitoring, estimation of tidal influence, and numerical groundwater-flow modeling to simulate future flood scenarios considering user-specified tide stages and magnitudes of SLR. We illustrate the value of the methodology by applying it to the heavily urbanized and low-lying Waikiki area of Honolulu, Hawaii. Results indicate that SLR of nearly 1 m generates GWI across 23% of the 13 km2 study area, threatening $5 billion of taxable real estate and 48 km of roadway. Analysis of current conditions reveals that 86% of 259 active cesspool sites in the study area are likely inundated. This suggests that cesspool effluent is currently entering coastal groundwater, which not only leads to degradation of coastal environments, but also presents a future threat to public health as GWI would introduce effluent at the ground surface. AU - Habel, Shellie AU - Fletcher, Charles H. AU - Rotzoll, Kolja AU - El-Kadi, Aly I. DA - 2017/05/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.watres.2017.02.035 DP - ScienceDirect KW - sea-level rise Groundwater inundation Groundwater modeling Hazard assessment Tidal flooding PY - 2017 SN - 0043-1354 SP - 122-134 ST - Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii T2 - Water Research TI - Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii VL - 114 ID - 22443 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The Pacific region presents some of the lowest water and sanitation coverage figures globally, with some countries showing stagnating or even declining access to improved water and sanitation. In addition, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries on the globe to extreme and variable climatic events and sea-level rise caused by climate change. By exploring the state of water and sanitation coverage in PICs and projected climatic variations, we add to the growing case for conserving water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions within a holistic integrated water resource management (IWRM) framework. PICs face unique challenges of increasing variability in rainfall (leading to drought and flooding), increasing temperatures, and likely higher than average sea-level rise, all of which impact on freshwater security. Add to this geographic and economic isolation, and limited human and physical resources, and the challenge of WASH provision increases dramatically. In this setting, there is a stronger case than ever for adopting a holistic systems understanding, as promoted by IWRM frameworks, to WASH interventions so that they consider past and current challenges as well as future scenarios. AU - Hadwen, Wade L. AU - Powell, Bronwyn AU - MacDonald, Morgan C. AU - Elliott, Mark AU - Chan, Terence AU - Gernjak, Wolfgang AU - Aalbersberg, William G. L. DA - 2015/06/01/ DO - 10.2166/washdev.2015.133 DP - washdev.iwaponline.com IS - 2 LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 2043-9083, 2408-9362 SP - 183-191 ST - Putting WASH in the water cycle: Climate change, water resources and the future of water, sanitation and hygiene challenges in Pacific Island Countries T2 - Journal of Water Sanitation and Hygiene for Development TI - Putting WASH in the water cycle: Climate change, water resources and the future of water, sanitation and hygiene challenges in Pacific Island Countries VL - 5 Y2 - 2017/09/26/20:15:14 ID - 22444 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Hawai‘i Fresh Water Initiative CY - Honolulu, HI PB - Hawai‘i Community Foundation PY - 2015 SP - 23 ST - A Blueprint for Action: Water Security for an Uncertain Future 2016-2018 TI - A Blueprint for Action: Water Security for an Uncertain Future 2016-2018 UR - http://issuu.com/hcfhawaii/docs/fresh_water_blueprint_final_062215__46c6615e6e60a5?e=1137810/33103441 ID - 22445 ER - TY - WEB AU - Hawai‘i Toursim Authority CY - Honolulu, HI KW - Hawaii grey literature PB - Hawai‘i Toursim Authority PY - 2016 SP - 180 ST - 2015 Annual Visitor Research Report TI - 2015 Annual Visitor Research Report UR - http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-research/2015-annual-visitor.pdf ID - 22446 ER - TY - RPRT AB - In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report. AU - Helweg, David A. AU - Keener, Victoria AU - Burgett, Jeff M. CY - Reston, VA DP - pubs.er.usgs.gov NV - USGS Open-File report 2016-1102 PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2016 SP - 25 ST - Report from the Workshop on Climate Downscaling and Its Application in High Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015 TI - Report from the Workshop on Climate Downscaling and Its Application in High Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015 UR - http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20161102 ID - 22447 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Henson, Stephanie A. AU - Beaulieu, Claudie AU - Ilyina, Tatiana AU - John, Jasmin G. AU - Long, Matthew AU - Séférian, Roland AU - Tjiputra, Jerry AU - Sarmiento, Jorge L. DA - 2017 DO - 10.1038/ncomms14682 DP - opensky.ucar.edu PY - 2017 SN - 2041-1723 SP - 14682 ST - Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems T2 - Nature Communications TI - Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems VL - 8 Y2 - 2017/09/23/01:38:20 ID - 22449 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful. AU - Hernández-Delgado, E. A. DA - 2015/12/15/ DO - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.09.018 DP - PubMed IS - 1 KW - Vulnerability Humans Islands Public Health Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Climate change adaptation Community livelihood Environmental decline Food Supply Quality of Life LA - eng PY - 2015 SN - 1879-3363 SP - 5-28 ST - The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies T2 - Marine Pollution Bulletin TI - The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies VL - 101 ID - 22450 ER - TY - RPRT AU - CDM Smith CY - Honolulu, HI PB - Honolulu Board of Water Supply PY - 2016 SP - various ST - 2016 Water Master Plan TI - 2016 Water Master Plan UR - http://www.boardofwatersupply.com/bws/media/files/water-master-plan-final-2016-10.pdf ID - 22451 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. AU - van Hooidonk, Ruben AU - Maynard, Jeffrey AU - Tamelander, Jerker AU - Gove, Jamison AU - Ahmadia, Gabby AU - Raymundo, Laurie AU - Williams, Gareth AU - Heron, Scott F. AU - Planes, Serge DA - 2016/12/21/ DO - 10.1038/srep39666 DP - www.nature.com LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 2045-2322 SP - 39666 ST - Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement VL - 6 Y2 - 2017/05/31/02:01:12 ID - 22452 ER - TY - JOUR AB - During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs. AU - Hughes, Terry P. AU - Kerry, James T. AU - Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana AU - Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G. AU - Anderson, Kristen D. AU - Baird, Andrew H. AU - Babcock, Russell C. AU - Beger, Maria AU - Bellwood, David R. AU - Berkelmans, Ray AU - Bridge, Tom C. AU - Butler, Ian R. AU - Byrne, Maria AU - Cantin, Neal E. AU - Comeau, Steeve AU - Connolly, Sean R. AU - Cumming, Graeme S. AU - Dalton, Steven J. AU - Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo AU - Eakin, C. Mark AU - Figueira, Will F. AU - Gilmour, James P. AU - Harrison, Hugo B. AU - Heron, Scott F. AU - Hoey, Andrew S. AU - Hobbs, Jean-Paul A. AU - Hoogenboom, Mia O. AU - Kennedy, Emma V. AU - Kuo, Chao-Yang AU - Lough, Janice M. AU - Lowe, Ryan J. AU - Liu, Gang AU - McCulloch, Malcolm T. AU - Malcolm, Hamish A. AU - McWilliam, Michael J. AU - Pandolfi, John M. AU - Pears, Rachel J. AU - Pratchett, Morgan S. AU - Schoepf, Verena AU - Simpson, Tristan AU - Skirving, William J. AU - Sommer, Brigitte AU - Torda, Gergely AU - Wachenfeld, David R. AU - Willis, Bette L. AU - Wilson, Shaun K. DA - 2017//03/15 DO - 10.1038/nature21707 DP - PubMed IS - 7645 KW - Temperature Animals global warming Conservation of Natural Resources Australia Anthozoa Chlorophyll Seawater LA - eng PY - 2017 SN - 1476-4687 SP - 373-377 ST - Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals T2 - Nature TI - Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals VL - 543 ID - 22453 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Republic of Palau and describes the burden due to selected NCD (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease); and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 7.1% increase in the population between 2000 and 2010. Significant shifts in the age groups show declines among children and young adults under 34 years of age and increases among adult residents over 45 years of age. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that play a significant role in the morbidity and mortality of the population. The leading causes of death include heart disease and cancer. A 2003 community household survey was conducted and 22.4% of them reported a history of diabetes in the household. A survey among Ministry of Health employees showed that 44% of the men and 47% of the women were overweight and 46% of the men and 42% of the women were obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, and support services to address these NCD. Priority issues and needs for the administrative and clinical systems were identified. AU - Ichiho, Henry M. AU - Demei, Yorah AU - Kuartei, Stevenson AU - Aitaoto, Nia DA - 2013/05// DP - PubMed Central IS - 5 Suppl 1 PY - 2013 SN - 2165-8218 SP - 98-105 ST - An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Republic of Palau: A systems perspective T2 - Hawaiʻi Journal of Medicine & Public Health TI - An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Republic of Palau: A systems perspective UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3689453/ VL - 72 ID - 22454 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Selmants, Paul C. A2 - Giardina, Christian P. A2 - Jacobi, James D. A2 - Zhu, Zhiliang AB - This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007 through 2012) and future (projections from 2012 through 2061). The assessment incorporated observed data, remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models. The national assessment has been completed for the conterminous United States, using methodology described in SIR 2010-5233, with results provided in three regional reports (PP 1804, PP 1797, and PP 1897), and for Alaska, with results provided in PP 1826. AU - Jacobi, James D. AU - Price, Jonathan P. AU - Fortini, Lucas B. AU - Gon, Samuel M., III AU - Berkowitz, Paul C4 - 6d97a138-7d5d-4df5-aa37-452e57b87544 CY - Reston, VA DP - pubs.er.usgs.gov PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2017 SP - 9-20 ST - Baseline land cover SV - USGS Professional paper 1834 T2 - Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Carbon Fluxes in Ecosystems of Hawai‘i T3 - Professional Paper TI - Baseline land cover UR - http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:36:30 ID - 22456 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of water-related hazards on human populations. This has generated security concerns and calls for urgent policy action. However, the simplified narrative that links climate change to security via water and violent conflict is wanting. First, it is not confirmed by empirical evidence. Second, it ignores the varied character and implications of hydro-climatic hazards, the multi-faceted nature of conflict and adaptive action, and crucial intricacies of security. Integrating for the first time research and findings from diverse disciplines, we provide a more nuanced picture of the climate-water-security nexus. We consider findings from the transboundary waters, armed conflict, vulnerability, and political ecology literatures and specify the implications and priorities for policy relevant research. Although the social effects of future hydro-climatic change cannot be safely predicted, there is a good understanding of the factors that aggravate risks to social wellbeing. To reduce vulnerability, pertinent democratic and social/civil security institutions should be strengthened where they exist, and promoted where they are still absent. AU - Kallis, Giorgos AU - Zografos, Christos DA - 2014/03/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0893-2 DP - link.springer.com IS - 1 LA - en PY - 2014 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 SP - 69-82 ST - Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security T2 - Climatic Change TI - Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security VL - 123 Y2 - 2017/09/26/01:09:04 ID - 22457 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) is one of the largest biomes on Earth. It has a semi-enclosed surface area of about 2 × 107 km2 and mean depth of nearly 5 km and includes a broad range of habitats from warm, light-saturated, nutrient-starved surface waters to the cold, nutrient-rich abyss. Microorganisms are found throughout the water column and are vertically stratified by their genetically determined metabolic capabilities that establish physiological tolerances to temperature, light, pressure, as well as organic and inorganic growth substrates. Despite the global significance of the NPSG for energy and matter transformations and its role in the oceanic carbon cycle, it is grossly undersampled and not well characterized with respect to ecosystem structure and dynamics. Since October 1988, interdisciplinary teams of scientists from the University of Hawaii and around the world have been investigating the NPSG ecosystem at Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment), a site chosen to be representative of this expansive oligotrophic habitat, with a focus on microbial processes and biogeochemistry. At the start of this comprehensive field study, the NPSG was thought to be a “Climax” community with a relatively stable plankton community structure and relatively low variability in key microbiological rates and processes. Now, after nearly three decades of observations and experimentation we present a new view of this old ocean, one that highlights temporal variability in ecosystem processes across a broad range of scales from diel to decadal and beyond. Our revised paradigm is built on the strength of high-quality time-series observations, on insights from the application of state-of-the-art –omics techniques (genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics) and, more recently, the discoveries of novel microorganisms and metabolic processes. Collectively, these efforts have led to a new understanding of trophic dynamics and population interactions in the NPSG. A comprehensive understanding of the environmental controls on microbial rates and processes, from genomes to biomes, will be required to inform the scientific community and the public at large about the potential impacts of human-induced climate change. The pace of new discovery, and the importance of integrating this new knowledge into conceptual paradigms and predictive models, is an enormous contemporary challenge with great scientific and societal relevance. AU - Karl, David M. AU - Church, Matthew J. DA - 2017/04/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10021-017-0117-0 DP - link.springer.com IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1432-9840, 1435-0629 SP - 433-457 ST - Ecosystem structure and dynamics in the North Pacific subtropical gyre: New views of an old ocean T2 - Ecosystems TI - Ecosystem structure and dynamics in the North Pacific subtropical gyre: New views of an old ocean VL - 20 Y2 - 2017/09/26/00:27:44 ID - 22458 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system. AU - Kelley, Colin P. AU - Mohtadi, Shahrzad AU - Cane, Mark A. AU - Seager, Richard AU - Kushnir, Yochanan DA - 2015/03/17/ DO - 10.1073/pnas.1421533112 DP - www.pnas.org IS - 11 KW - climate change Drought conflict Syria unrest LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490 SP - 3241-3246 ST - Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought VL - 112 Y2 - 2017/09/26/01:04:08 ID - 22459 ER - TY - RPRT AB - Most of ADB’s Pacific developing member countries (DMCs)1 are small and remote, with fragile biodiversity, and among the nations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Pacific DMCs are unable to absorb the economic shocks attributed to climate impacts, and are constrained by low human, financial, and technical capacity; limited availability of scientific information; and poor coordination between the numerous donors. The regional capacity development TA aimed to assist the Pacific DMCs to build resilience to climate change, climate variability, and extreme weather events through adaptation and, where possible, mitigation, taking into account local country-specific issues and needs, and complementing existing climate change activities in the region. AU - Kellogg Brown and Root Pty. Ltd AU - KBR.com, Now: DA - 2012 M3 - Final Regional Synthesis Report PY - 2012 SN - 7394-REG ST - Strengthening the Capacity of Pacific Developing Member Countries to Respond to Climate Change (Phase 1) TI - Strengthening the Capacity of Pacific Developing Member Countries to Respond to Climate Change (Phase 1) UR - https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-document/81228/43071-012-tcr.pdf ID - 22460 ER - TY - JOUR AB -

Ice-shelf bottom melting is thought to cause mass loss in West Antarctica. Here, the authors analyse radar observations of the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves to directly quantify grounding zone unbalanced melting of up to 70 m per year, and illustrate its relation with be…

AU - Khazendar, Ala AU - Rignot, Eric AU - Schroeder, Dustin M. AU - Seroussi, Helene AU - Schodlok, Michael P. AU - Scheuchl, Bernd AU - Mouginot, Jeremie AU - Sutterley, Tyler C. AU - Velicogna, Isabella DA - 2016/10/25/ DO - 10.1038/ncomms13243 DP - www.nature.com LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 2041-1723 SP - 13243 ST - Rapid submarine ice melting in the grounding zones of ice shelves in West Antarctica T2 - Nature Communications TI - Rapid submarine ice melting in the grounding zones of ice shelves in West Antarctica VL - 7 Y2 - 2017/09/22/20:44:25 ID - 22461 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe. Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly. We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia, reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate. AU - Kleinbauer, I. AU - Dullinger, S. AU - Peterseil, J. AU - Essl, F. DA - 2010/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.10.024 DP - ScienceDirect IS - 2 KW - Austria Endangered habitats Invasion risk Natura 2000 Reserve networks Species distribution models PY - 2010 SN - 0006-3207 SP - 382-390 ST - Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats T2 - Biological Conservation TI - Climate change might drive the invasive tree Robinia pseudacacia into nature reserves and endangered habitats VL - 143 ID - 22462 ER - TY - CPAPER A2 - Charles, Birkeland A2 - Coles, Steve L. A2 - Spies, Narrissa P. AU - Kramer, K. L. AU - Cotton, S. P. AU - Lamson, M. R. AU - Walsh, W. J. CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2016 PY - 2016 SP - 219-230 T2 - Bridging Science to Policy: Proceedings of the 13th International Coral Reef Symposium TI - Bleaching and catastrophic mortality of reef-building corals along west Hawai‘i island: Findings and future directions UR - http://coralreefs.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Session-30-Kramer_etal_ICRS_Final-1-2.pdf ID - 22463 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100. AU - Krauss, Ken W. AU - Cormier, Nicole AU - Osland, Michael J. AU - Kirwan, Matthew L. AU - Stagg, Camille L. AU - Nestlerode, Janet A. AU - Russell, Marc J. AU - From, Andrew S. AU - Spivak, Amanda C. AU - Dantin, Darrin D. AU - Harvey, James E. AU - Almario, Alejandro E. DA - 2017/04/21/ DO - 10.1038/s41598-017-01224-2 DP - www.nature.com IS - 1 LA - En PY - 2017 SN - 2045-2322 SP - 1030 ST - Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise VL - 7 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:57:06 ID - 22464 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The relevant literature on extreme rainfall events in the Pacific remains relatively sparse compared to other regions (e.g. the coterminous United States, Europe, etc.). Moreover, several recent reports on climate in the Pacific mention the paucity of extremes information and often list ‘trends in historical climate’ as a necessary next step. This scientific assessment meets this need by examining historical trends in and drivers of extreme rainfall events across the entire Pacific Basin, inclusive from Alaska southward to Australia, and longitudinally from the Philippines eastward to North America, with an emphasis on island and coastal locations (within 200 km of the coastline). There is evidence of a general decrease in the frequency of annual extreme rainfall events, yet the amount of extreme precipitation contributing to annual and seasonal totals appears to be on the rise. Region-wide, the number of consecutive dry days is increasing for those locations that are already dry, while the number of consecutive wet days is increasing for the already wet locales. The data for extreme rainfall statistics are considered to be relatively high quality for trend detection, while the level of understanding of the physical causes behind extreme rainfall is positively high. Since the ability to analyze the changes in historical rainfall extremes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future with the advancement of new datasets and ‘climate reanalysis’ projects. AU - Kruk, Michael C. AU - Lorrey, Andrew M. AU - Griffiths, Georgina M. AU - Lander, Mark AU - Gibney, Ethan J. AU - Diamond, Howard J. AU - Marra, John J. DA - 2015/03/01/ DO - 10.1002/joc.3990 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 3 KW - extreme events Rainfall Pacific Islands Climatology Extremes trends assessment ETCCDI ITCZ precipitation PSCP SPCZ LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 1097-0088 SP - 321-336 ST - On the state of the knowledge of rainfall extremes in the western and northern Pacific basin T2 - International Journal of Climatology TI - On the state of the knowledge of rainfall extremes in the western and northern Pacific basin VL - 35 Y2 - 2016/03/17/02:34:58 ID - 22465 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Island communities stand to be among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Rising sea levels, changing precipitation and storm patterns, and increasing air and sea-surface temperatures stress already limited island resources while climate change policies circumscribe local decision making. Anthropologists make important contributions to understanding island-based knowledge, global causes of vulnerability, local perceptions of risk, and islander agency channeled into adaptive capacity and resilience. A conceptual framework that recognizes both the complexity of the causes of island vulnerability and the constraints and opportunities available to islanders offers an analytical approach to understanding islander responses to climate change, including migration. The framework is used to show that island communities are not merely isolated, small, and impoverished but that they are often deeply globally connected in ways that reject such simple descriptions and will be essential to just and equitable climate solutions. AU - Lazrus, Heather DA - 2012 DO - 10.1146/annurev-anthro-092611-145730 DP - Annual Reviews IS - 1 PY - 2012 SP - 285-301 ST - Sea change: Island communities and climate change T2 - Annual Review of Anthropology TI - Sea change: Island communities and climate change VL - 41 ID - 22466 ER - TY - JOUR AB - IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning. AU - Lehodey, Patrick AU - Senina, Inna AU - Calmettes, Beatriz AU - Hampton, John AU - Nicol, Simon DA - 2012/10/02/ DO - 10.1007/s10584-012-0595-1 DP - link.springer.com IS - 1 KW - climate projections Model evaluation/performance Ecosystems marine ecosystems fisheries climate scenarios ocean and marine resources LA - en PY - 2012 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 SP - 95-109 ST - Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries T2 - Climatic Change TI - Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries VL - 119 Y2 - 2016/08/05/21:36:08 ID - 22467 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Leung, Ping Sun AU - Loke, Matthew CY - Manoa, HI DA - 2008 NV - Economic Impacts, EI-16 PB - University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources PY - 2008 SN - EI-16 SP - 7 ST - Economic Impacts of Improving Hawaii's Food Self-sufficiency TI - Economic Impacts of Improving Hawaii's Food Self-sufficiency UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10125/12200 ID - 22468 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously. AU - Liao, Wei AU - Atkinson, Carter T. AU - LaPointe, Dennis A. AU - Samuel, Michael D. DA - 2017/01/06/ DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0168880 DP - PLoS Journals IS - 1 KW - Malaria avian malaria Birds Death rates Forests Infectious disease control Mosquitoes Swine PY - 2017 SN - 1932-6203 SP - e0168880 ST - Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change VL - 12 Y2 - 2017/09/25/21:35:06 ID - 22469 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There are over 2000 islands across Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), where fresh water resources are heavily dependent upon rainfall. Many of the islands experience dramatic variations in precipitation during the different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Traditionally, forecasters in the region relied on ENSO climatologies based on spatially-limited in situ data to inform their seasonal precipitation outlooks. To address this gap, a unique NOAA/NASA collaborative project updated the ENSO-based rainfall climatology for the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) encompassing Hawaii and the USAPI using NOAA’s PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR). The PERSIANN-CDR provides a 30-year record of global daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution (~750 km2 near the equator). This project took place over a 10-week NASA DEVELOP National Program term, and resulted in a 478-page climatic reference atlas. This atlas is based on a 30-year period from 1 January 1985 through 31 December 2014 and complements station data by offering an enhanced spatial representation of rainfall averages.Regional and EEZ-specific maps throughout the atlas illustrate the percent departure from average for each season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for different ENSO phases. To facilitate inter-comparisons across locations, this percentage-based climatology was provided to regional climatologists, forecasters, and outreach experts within the region. Anomalous wet and dry maps for each ENSO phase are used by the regional constituents to better understand precipitation patterns across their regions and to produce more accurate forecasts to inform adaptation, conservation, and mitigation options for drought and flooding events. AU - Luchetti, Nicholas T. AU - Sutton, Jessica R. P. AU - Wright, Ethan E. AU - Kruk, Michael C. AU - Marra, John J. DA - 2016/02/22/ DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00219.1 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) KW - drought ENSO Rainfall Hawaii Seasonal forecasting freshwater Climatology Federated States of Micronesia Palau Republic of the Marshall Islands Guam American Samoa Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands PY - 2016 SN - 0003-0007 SP - 2249-2255 ST - When El Niño rages: How satellite data can help water-stressed islands T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - When El Niño rages: How satellite data can help water-stressed islands VL - 97 Y2 - 2016/03/17/02:27:24 ID - 22470 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Two of the key drivers of biodiversity loss today are climate change and invasive species. Climate change is already having a measurable impact on species distributions, reproduction and behavior, and all evidence suggests that things will get worse even if we act tomorrow to mitigate any future increases in greenhouse gas emissions: temperature will increase, precipitation will change, sea level will rise and ocean chemistry will change. At the same time, biological invasions remain an important threat to biodiversity, causing species loss, changes in distribution and habitat degradation. Acting together, the impacts of each of these drivers of change are compounded and interactions between these two threats present even greater challenges to field conservationists as well as policymakers. Similarly, the social and economic impacts of climate change and invasive species, already substantial, will be magnified. Awareness of the links between the two should underpin all biodiversity management planning and policy. AU - Mainka, Susan A. AU - Howard, Geoffrey W. DA - 2010/06// DO - 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00193.x DP - PubMed IS - 2 KW - climate change Conservation of Natural Resources Biodiversity Introduced Species Public Policy LA - eng PY - 2010 SN - 1749-4877 SP - 102-111 ST - Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy T2 - Integrative Zoology TI - Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy VL - 5 ID - 22471 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Matear, Richard J. AU - Chamberlain, M. A. AU - Sun, C. AU - Feng, Ming DA - 2015 DO - 10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.07.003 DP - Google Scholar KW - Pacific Ocean climate projections marine ecosystems impact fisheries circulation PY - 2015 SP - 22-46 ST - Climate change projection for the western tropical Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution ocean model: Implications for tuna fisheries T2 - Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography TI - Climate change projection for the western tropical Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution ocean model: Implications for tuna fisheries VL - 113 Y2 - 2016/02/26/00:39:40 ID - 22472 ER - TY - RPRT AU - McGarth, Chantel CY - Munich, Germany PB - ProDes Project and Aquamarine Power Ltd PY - 2010 SP - 91 ST - Renewable Desalination Market Analysis: Oceania, South Africa, Middle East & North Africa T2 - ProDes Project TI - Renewable Desalination Market Analysis: Oceania, South Africa, Middle East & North Africa UR - http://www.prodes-project.org/fileadmin/Files/Export_Market_Analysis.pdf ID - 22473 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Rainfall records for 23 countries and territories in the western Pacific have been collated for the purpose of examining trends in total and extreme rainfall since 1951. For some countries this is the first time that their data have been included in this type of analysis and for others the number of stations examined is more than twice that available in the current literature. Station trends in annual total and extreme rainfall for 1961–2011 are spatially heterogeneous and largely not statistically significant. This differs with the results of earlier studies that show spatially coherent trends that tended to reverse in the vicinity of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). We infer that the difference is due to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation switching to a negative phase from about 1999, largely reversing earlier rainfall changes. Trend analyses for 1981–2011 show wetter conditions in the West Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region and southwest of the mean SPCZ position. In the tropical North Pacific it has become wetter west of 160°E with the Intertropical Convergence Zone/WPM expanding northwards west of 140°E. Northeast of the SPCZ and in the central tropical Pacific east of about 160°E it has become drier. Our findings for the South Pacific subtropics are consistent with broader trends seen in parts of southern and eastern Australia towards reduced rainfall. The relationship between total and extreme rainfall and Pacific basin sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been investigated with a focus on the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We substantiate a strong relationship between ENSO and total rainfall and establish similar relationships for the threshold extreme indices. The percentile-based and absolute extreme indices are influenced by ENSO to a lesser extent and in some cases the influence is marginal. Undoubtedly, larger-scale SST variability is not the only influence on these indices. AU - McGree, S. AU - Whan, K. AU - Jones, D. AU - Alexander, L. V. AU - Imielska, A. AU - Diamond, H. AU - Ene, E. AU - Finaulahi, S. AU - Inape, K. AU - Jacklick, L. AU - Kumar, R. AU - Laurent, V. AU - Malala, H. AU - Malsale, P. AU - Moniz, T. AU - Ngemaes, M. AU - Peltier, A. AU - Porteous, A. AU - Pulehetoa-Mitiepo, R. AU - Seuseu, S. AU - Skilling, E. AU - Tahani, L. AU - Teimitsi, F. AU - Toorua, U. AU - Vaiimene, M. DA - 2014/06/01/ DO - 10.1002/joc.3874 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 8 KW - Pacific Islands ETCCDI SPCZ extreme climate indices IPO LA - en PY - 2014 SN - 1097-0088 SP - 2775-2791 ST - An updated assessment of trends and variability in total and extreme rainfall in the western Pacific T2 - International Journal of Climatology TI - An updated assessment of trends and variability in total and extreme rainfall in the western Pacific VL - 34 Y2 - 2017/09/23/01:33:54 ID - 22474 ER - TY - THES A3 - Giambelluca, Tom W. AU - McKenzie, Marie M. CY - Mānoa, HI M3 - Master's PB - University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa PY - 2016 ST - Regional temperature trends in Hawaiʻi: A century of change, 1916–2015 T2 - Department of Geography TI - Regional temperature trends in Hawaiʻi: A century of change, 1916–2015 UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10125/51292 VL - M.A. ID - 22475 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change adaptation. Our results show the relative contributions of some strategies to cope with social–ecological change have decreased (e.g., forecasting, storage, and mobility), while others have maintained but adapted (e.g., livelihood diversification, knowledge transmission and storage, communal pooling, and cultural identity), underscoring the importance of considering multiple strategies together to promote community resilience. The article argues that understanding how people responded in the past can suggest relevant and culturally appropriate ways—through specific language, values, reference points, and indicators expressed in narratives, proverbs, and songs—of situating climate change and framing adaptation planning. This research also shows that TEK is vital for adaptation to environmental change broadly and climate change in particular, for subsistence-based, indigenous, rural communities, as well as place-based communities living in mixed economies. Thus, it is relevant for the larger Pacific Islands region and other areas that represent a continuum from rural-to-urban and traditional-to-global economies and lifeways. AU - McMillen, Heather AU - Ticktin, Tamara AU - Springer, Hannah Kihalani DA - 2017/02/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10113-016-1032-1 DP - link.springer.com IS - 2 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X SP - 579-592 ST - The future is behind us: Traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai‘i Island T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - The future is behind us: Traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai‘i Island VL - 17 Y2 - 2017/09/26/00:40:44 ID - 22476 ER - TY - JOUR AU - McNamara, Karen Elizabeth DA - 2013/12// DO - 10.1111/apv.12033 DP - CrossRef IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 13607456 SP - 398-405 ST - Taking stock of community-based climate-change adaptation projects in the Pacific: Climate change adaptation in the Pacific T2 - Asia Pacific Viewpoint TI - Taking stock of community-based climate-change adaptation projects in the Pacific: Climate change adaptation in the Pacific VL - 54 Y2 - 2016/10/27/23:38:06 ID - 22477 ER - TY - JOUR AU - McNaught, Rebecca AU - Warrick, Olivia AU - Cooper, Andrew DA - 2014/08// DO - 10.1007/s10113-014-0592-1 DP - CrossRef IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2014 SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X SP - 1491-1503 ST - Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: A Pacific study T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: A Pacific study VL - 14 Y2 - 2016/10/27/23:38:06 ID - 22478 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels. AU - Merrifield, M. A. AU - Becker, J. M. AU - Ford, M. AU - Yao, Y. DA - 2014/10/28/ DO - 10.1002/2014GL061005 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 20 KW - extreme events winds and waves Sea level coastal inundation Republic of the Marshall Islands 4560 Surface waves and tides 4220 Coral reef systems 4313 Extreme events 4556 Sea level: variations and mean coastal effects extreme water levels LA - en PY - 2014 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 7245-7253 ST - Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands VL - 41 Y2 - 2016/08/26/01:33:51 ID - 22479 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The tropical coastal “seascape” often includes a patchwork of mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral reefs that produces a variety of natural resources and ecosystem services. By looking into a limited number of attempts at substitution and restoration of ecosystem services (e.g. artificial reefs, aquaculture in mangroves, artificial seawalls), we address the questions: (1) To what degree can technologies substitute for ecosystem services in the seascape? (2) How can ecosystem restoration reestablish not only the functions of direct value to humans, but also the ability of the systems to cope with future disturbance? Substitutions often imply the replacement of a function provided free by a solar powered, self-repairing resilient ecosystem, with a fossil-fuel-powered, expensive, artificial substitute that needs maintenance. Further, restoration usually does not focus on large-scale processes such as the physical, biological and biogeochemical interactions between mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs. Nonetheless, restoration might be the only viable management alternative when the system is essentially locked into an undesired community state (stability domain) after a phase-shift. We conclude that ecosystem services cannot be readily replaced, restored or sustained without extensive knowledge of the dynamics, multifunctionality and interconnectedness of ecosystems. AU - Moberg, Fredrik AU - Rönnbäck, Patrik DA - 2003/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/S0964-5691(02)00119-9 DP - ScienceDirect IS - 1 PY - 2003 SN - 0964-5691 SP - 27-46 ST - Ecosystem services of the tropical seascape: Interactions, substitutions and restoration T2 - Ocean & Coastal Management TI - Ecosystem services of the tropical seascape: Interactions, substitutions and restoration VL - 46 ID - 22480 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Small-island developing states (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather events. Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion. Adaptation measures in response to this in SIDS have the potential to reduce some of the adverse impacts, yet they have limitations. This article addresses the degree to which households on the island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), are affected by coastal erosion, the autonomous adaptation measures they have implemented, the limitations thereof, and the loss and damage incurred as a result. This analysis is based on quantitative and qualitative data. We found that 70% of the 363 households we interviewed experienced adverse effects of coastal erosion. Of those suffering from impacts, 60% carried out adaptation measures. Yet, 92% of those respondents who carried out adaptation measures indicated that these measures were insufficient, resulting in loss and damage to livelihoods, housing and culture. This empirical case study contributes to the critical debate on the impacts of climate change beyond adaptation. AU - Monnereau, Iris AU - Abraham, Simpson DA - 2013/01/01/ DO - 10.1504/IJGW.2013.057283 DP - inderscienceonline.com (Atypon) IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 1758-2083 SP - 416-432 ST - Limits to autonomous adaptation in response to coastal erosion in Kosrae, Micronesia T2 - International Journal of Global Warming TI - Limits to autonomous adaptation in response to coastal erosion in Kosrae, Micronesia VL - 5 Y2 - 2016/06/23/22:00:37 ID - 22481 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Mangrove forests are one of the world's most threatened tropical ecosystems with global loss exceeding 35% (ref. 1). Juvenile coral reef fish often inhabit mangroves, but the importance of these nurseries to reef fish population dynamics has not been quantified. Indeed, mangroves might be expected to have negligible influence on reef fish communities: juvenile fish can inhabit alternative habitats and fish populations may be regulated by other limiting factors such as larval supply or fishing. Here we show that mangroves are unexpectedly important, serving as an intermediate nursery habitat that may increase the survivorship of young fish. Mangroves in the Caribbean strongly influence the community structure of fish on neighbouring coral reefs. In addition, the biomass of several commercially important species is more than doubled when adult habitat is connected to mangroves. The largest herbivorous fish in the Atlantic, Scarus guacamaia, has a functional dependency on mangroves and has suffered local extinction after mangrove removal. Current rates of mangrove deforestation are likely to have severe deleterious consequences for the ecosystem function, fisheries productivity and resilience of reefs. Conservation efforts should protect connected corridors of mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs. AU - Mumby, Peter J. AU - Edwards, Alasdair J. AU - Arias-González, J. Ernesto AU - Lindeman, Kenyon C. AU - Blackwell, Paul G. AU - Gall, Angela AU - Gorczynska, Malgosia I. AU - Harborne, Alastair R. AU - Pescod, Claire L. AU - Renken, Henk AU - Wabnitz, Colette C. C. AU - Llewellyn, Ghislane DA - 2004/02/05/ DO - 10.1038/nature02286 DP - PubMed IS - 6974 KW - Environment Animals Mexico Angiosperms Population Density Anthozoa Belize Biomass Caribbean Region Fishes Trees LA - eng PY - 2004 SN - 1476-4687 SP - 533-536 ST - Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean T2 - Nature TI - Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean VL - 427 ID - 22482 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional tropical cyclone activity are challenging owing to multiple sources of uncertainty in model physical schemes and different assumptions for future sea surface temperatures. A key factor in projecting climate change is to derive robust signals of future changes in tropical cyclone activity across different model physical schemes and different future patterns in sea surface temperature. A suite of future warming experiments (2075–2099), using a state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate model, robustly predicts an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence around the Hawaiian Islands. A physically based empirical model analysis reveals that the substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency is primarily associated with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track in the open ocean southeast of the islands. Moreover, significant and robust changes in large-scale environmental conditions strengthen in situ tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical central Pacific. These results highlight possible future increases in storm-related socio-economic and ecosystem damage for the Hawaiian Islands. AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki AU - Wang, Bin AU - Li, Tim AU - Kitoh, Akio DA - 2013/08// DO - 10.1038/nclimate1890 DP - www.nature.com IS - 8 KW - Climate sciences LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 1758-678X SP - 749-754 ST - Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii VL - 3 Y2 - 2016/06/23/00:54:33 ID - 22483 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘future worlds’), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost–benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues. AU - Nicholls, Robert J. AU - Tol, Richard S. J. DA - 2006/04/15/ DO - 10.1098/rsta.2006.1754 DP - rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org IS - 1841 LA - en PY - 2006 SN - 1364-503X, 1471-2962 SP - 1073-1095 ST - Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century T2 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences TI - Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century VL - 364 Y2 - 2017/09/26/00:50:13 ID - 22484 ER - TY - JOUR AB -

The characterization of Pacific Islands as especially vulnerable to climate change often undervalues the cultural resilience of their inhabitants. On many Micronesian islands, coastal stone-built structures are the most visible type of tangible cultural resilience and have endured for perhaps 1000 years or more. A distinction is recognized between older structures, likely built in response to sea-level rise during the Medieval Warm Period (AD 750–1250), and more recent structures that likely took advantage of the lowered sea level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1350–1800). Detailed studies of Micronesian responses to recent coastal change were undertaken in the islands of Yap (Proper). The positioning and maintenance of coastal men’s houses (faluw) reflect either pragmatic responses to unmanageable coastal change or a cultural determination to resist this. The long history of traditional responses to climate variability and coastal change for terrestrial food production on Yap is also discussed. Future adaptation pathways on Yap and other higher islands in Micronesia need to combine scientific knowledge of climate change with traditional responses to historical change, including the stonework tradition and the cultural determination to resist undesired coastal change.

AU - Nunn, Patrick D. AU - Runman, John AU - Falanruw, Margie AU - Kumar, Roselyn DA - 2016/04/19/ DO - 10.1007/s10113-016-0950-2 DP - www.infona.pl IS - 17 LA - English PY - 2016 SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X SP - 959-971 ST - Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean VL - 4 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:51:45 ID - 22485 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Nuuhiwa, Kalei AU - Lilly, Olani AU - Nobrega-Olivera, Malia AU - Huihui, Micky CY - [Honolulu, HI] DA - 2016 PB - LAMA & Kama‘aha Education Initiative PY - 2016 SP - 15 ST - ʻAimalama: E Mauliauhonua—Readapting to Ancestral Knowledge for Survival TI - ʻAimalama: E Mauliauhonua—Readapting to Ancestral Knowledge for Survival UR - http://www.aimalama.org/wp-content/uploads/%CA%BBAimalama-%E2%80%93-E-Mauliauhonua.pdf ID - 22486 ER - TY - PRESS AU - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center CY - Honolulu, HI M1 - 4 PB - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center PY - 2015 ST - Historic Hurricane Season—2015 Summary for the Central Pacific Basin [Media advisory] TI - Historic Hurricane Season—2015 Summary for the Central Pacific Basin [Media advisory] UR - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/examples/2015_HurricaneSeasonSummary_MediaAdvisory.pdf ID - 22487 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Oki, Delwyn S. CY - Reston, VA DA - 2004 NV - USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5080 PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2004 SN - 2004-5080 SP - 116 ST - Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii TI - Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii UR - https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2004/5080/ ID - 22488 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Miller, James A. A2 - Whitehead, R. L. A2 - Gingerich, Stephen B. A2 - Oki, Delwyn S. A2 - Olcott, Perry G. AU - Oki, Delwyn S. AU - Gingerich, Stephen B. AU - Whitehead, R. L. C4 - 7a27d346-7b51-4cf4-987c-32fa1c0b4677 CY - Reston, VA PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 1999 SP - N12-N22, N36 ST - Hawaii SV - Hydrologic Atlas 730-N T2 - Ground Water Atlas of the United States, Segment 13, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands TI - Hawaii UR - https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ha730N ID - 22489 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The intensity and frequency of climate-driven disturbances are increasing in coastal marine ecosystems. Understanding the factors that enhance or inhibit ecosystem resilience to climatic disturbance is essential. We surveyed 97 experts in six major coastal biogenic ecosystem types to identify “bright spots” of resilience in the face of climate change. We also evaluated literature that was recommended by the experts that addresses the responses of habitat-forming species to climatic disturbance. Resilience was commonly reported in the expert surveys (80% of experts). Resilience was observed in all ecosystem types and at multiple locations worldwide. The experts and literature cited remaining biogenic habitat, recruitment/connectivity, physical setting, and management of local-scale stressors as most important for resilience. These findings suggest that coastal ecosystems may still hold great potential to persist in the face of climate change and that local- to regional-scale management can help buffer global climatic impacts. AU - O'Leary, Jennifer K. AU - Micheli, Fiorenza AU - Airoldi, Laura AU - Boch, Charles AU - De Leo, Giulio AU - Elahi, Robin AU - Ferretti, Francesco AU - Graham, Nicholas A. J. AU - Litvin, Steven Y. AU - Low, Natalie H. AU - Lummis, Sarah AU - Nickols, Kerry J. AU - Wong, Joanne DA - 2017/03/01/ DO - 10.1093/biosci/biw161 DP - academic.oup.com IS - 3 PY - 2017 SN - 0006-3568 SP - 208-220 ST - The resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic disturbances T2 - BioScience TI - The resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic disturbances VL - 67 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:17:17 ID - 22490 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate–mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range-limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west-central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semiarid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate–mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests. AU - Osland, Michael J. AU - Feher, Laura C. AU - Griffith, Kereen T. AU - Cavanaugh, Kyle C. AU - Enwright, Nicholas M. AU - Day, Richard H. AU - Stagg, Camille L. AU - Krauss, Ken W. AU - Howard, Rebecca J. AU - Grace, James B. AU - Rogers, Kerrylee DA - 2017/05/01/ DO - 10.1002/ecm.1248 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 2 KW - Rainfall Temperature climate change distribution abundance climate gradients climatic drivers climatic thresholds ecological thresholds mangrove forests range limit species richness LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1557-7015 SP - 341-359 ST - Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests T2 - Ecological Monographs TI - Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests VL - 87 ID - 22491 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Pacific Islands Forum CY - Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands PB - Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat PY - 2013 SP - 12 ST - Majuro Declaration for Climate Leadership [Annex 1 and 2 of the 44th Forum Communiqué] TI - Majuro Declaration for Climate Leadership [Annex 1 and 2 of the 44th Forum Communiqué] UR - http://www.daghammarskjold.se/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/44th-PIFS-Majuro-Outcome.pdf ID - 22492 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) DA - 2016/12// M3 - Technical Input for 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment N1 - (Pacific RISA) PY - 2016 RP - (Pacific RISA) ST - Survey Report: User Input for Next Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment TI - Survey Report: User Input for Next Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment ID - 22493 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Padgett, Gary CY - [Sydney, Australia] PB - Australian Severe Weather PY - 2005 ST - Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary: February 2005 TI - Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary: February 2005 UR - http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2005/summ0502.htm ID - 22494 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Page, Christina AU - Bony, Lionel AU - Schewel, Laura PB - Rocky Mountain Institute PY - 2007 SP - 84 ST - Island of Hawaii Whole System Project: Phase I Report TI - Island of Hawaii Whole System Project: Phase I Report UR - http://www.kohalacenter.org/pdf/hi_wsp_2.pdf ID - 22495 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation. AU - Pandolfi, John M. AU - Connolly, Sean R. AU - Marshall, Dustin J. AU - Cohen, Anne L. DA - 2011/07/22/ DO - 10.1126/science.1204794 DP - PubMed IS - 6041 KW - carbon dioxide Animals Biological Evolution global warming Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Biodiversity Anthozoa Seawater Oceans and Seas Calcification, Physiologic Forecasting Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Symbiosis LA - eng PY - 2011 SN - 1095-9203 SP - 418-422 ST - Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification T2 - Science TI - Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification VL - 333 ID - 22496 ER - TY - JOUR AB - It is traditional for Hawaiians to “consult nature” so that fishing is practiced at times and places, and with gear that causes minimum disruption of natural biological and ecological processes. The Ho‘olehua Hawaiian Homestead continues this tradition in and around Mo‘omomi Bay on the northwest coast of the island of Moloka‘i. This community relies heavily on inshore marine resources for subsistence and consequently, has an intimate knowledge of these resources. The shared knowledge, beliefs, and values of the community are culturally channeled to promote proper fishing behavior. This informal system brings more knowledge, experience, and moral commitment to fishery conservation than more centralized government management. AU - Poepoe, Kelson K. AU - Bartram, Paul K. AU - Friedlander, Alan M. DP - ResearchGate IS - 1 PY - 2002 SN - 1198-6727 SP - 328-339 ST - The use of traditional Hawaiian knowledge in the contemporary management of marine resources T2 - Fisheries Centre Research Reports TI - The use of traditional Hawaiian knowledge in the contemporary management of marine resources UR - https://open.library.ubc.ca/media/download/pdf/52383/1.0074793/1 VL - 11 ID - 22497 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Fogarty, Michael J. A2 - McCarthy, James J. A3 - Fogarty, Michael J. A2 - McCarthy, James J. AU - Polovina, Jeffrey AU - Hobday, Alistair J. AU - Koslow, J. Anthony AU - Saba, Vincent S. C4 - 6cf389bc-8e3b-4613-91ee-45cf028a4f42 CY - Cambridge, MA PB - Harvard University Press PY - 2014 SN - 9780674072701 SP - 429-473 ST - Open ocean systems SV - The Sea, volume 16 T2 - Marine Ecosystem-based Management T3 - The Sea TI - Open ocean systems ID - 22498 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We analyzed a 16-year (1996–2011) time series of catch and effort data for 23 species with mean weights ranging from 0.8 kg to 224 kg, recorded by observers in the Hawaii-based deep-set longline fishery. Over this time period, domestic fishing effort, as numbers of hooks set in the core Hawaii-based fishing ground, has increased fourfold. The standardized aggregated annual catch rate for 9 small (<15 kg) species increased about 25% while for 14 large species (>15 kg) it decreased about 50% over the 16-year period. A size-based ecosystem model for the subtropical Pacific captures this pattern well as a response to increased fishing effort. Further, the model projects a decline in the abundance of fishes larger than 15 kg results in an increase in abundance of animals from 0.1 to 15 kg but with minimal subsequent cascade to sizes smaller than 0.1 kg. These results suggest that size-based predation plays a key role in structuring the subtropical ecosystem. These changes in ecosystem size structure show up in the fishery in various ways. The non-commercial species lancetfish (mean weight 7 kg) has now surpassed the target species, bigeye tuna, as the species with the highest annual catch rate. Based on the increase in snake mackerel (mean weight 0.8 kg) and lancetfish catches, the discards in the fishery are estimated to have increased from 30 to 40% of the total catch. AU - Polovina, Jeffrey J. AU - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A. DA - 2013/04/19/ DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0062341 DP - PLoS Journals IS - 4 KW - Ecosystems Ecosystem modeling Fish physiology Fisheries science Predation Sharks Snakes Tuna PY - 2013 SN - 1932-6203 SP - e62341 ST - Fishery-induced changes in the subtropical Pacific pelagic ecosystem size structure: Observations and theory T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Fishery-induced changes in the subtropical Pacific pelagic ecosystem size structure: Observations and theory VL - 8 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:43:39 ID - 22499 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Prouty, Nancy G. AU - Cohen, Anne AU - Yates, Kimberly K. AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Swarzenski, Peter W. AU - White, Darla DO - 10.1002/2017JC013264 IS - 12 PY - 2017 SP - 9319-9331 ST - Vulnerability of coral reefs to bioerosion from land-based source of pollution T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans TI - Vulnerability of coral reefs to bioerosion from land-based source of pollution VL - 122 ID - 22500 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future. AU - Quataert, Ellen AU - Storlazzi, Curt AU - van Rooijen, Arnold AU - Cheriton, Olivia AU - van Dongeren, Ap DA - 2015/08/16/ DO - 10.1002/2015GL064861 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 15 KW - Pacific Ocean winds and waves Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation coral reefs Republic of the Marshall Islands wave runup 4220 Coral reef systems 1641 Sea level change 4534 Hydrodynamic modeling 9355 Pacific Ocean flooding modeling infragravity waves reef morphology coastal effects LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 6407–6415 ST - The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines VL - 42 Y2 - 2016/01/08/01:49:35 ID - 22501 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Ramsay, Doug AU - Webb, Arthur AU - Abraham, Simpson AU - Jackson, Robert AU - Charley, Blair CY - Hamilton, NZ DA - 2000 PB - National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) PY - 2000 SP - 8-9 ST - Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan: Repositioning for Resilience, Executive Summary TI - Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan: Repositioning for Resilience, Executive Summary UR - http://kosraecoast.com/what-kosrae-can-do/ Y2 - 2017/09/25/ ID - 22502 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Anomalously warm sea surface temperature events are increasing in frequency, generating global concern regarding the adaptive and acclimatizing capacities of corals. Staghorn Acropora corals, important ecologically as habitat structurers, are particularly vulnerable to temperature-related bleaching. Here, we report a catastrophic mass mortality event that affected shallow staghorn communities in Guam, Micronesia. Mortality began in conjunction with a mass bleaching event in late 2013, initiated by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures and doldrum winds over a 4 mo period. A second warming event followed less than 8 mo later, concurrent with a period of extreme low tides resulting in repeated periods of subaerial exposure of shallow corals. This combination of stressors acted synergistically to trigger an extended mass mortality event. In 2015, we conducted rapid assessment surveys of 7 species in 21 previously mapped populations to determine mortality extent and pattern. Mortality from these combined environmental stressors resulted in a 53 ± 10% reduction in Guam’s staghorn population, covering an estimated 17.5 ha of coral communities. Greater water circulation appeared to be associated with higher survival during both warm temperature periods and extreme low tides; populations in slightly deeper water, closer to well-flushed reef margins, showed lower mortality. A better understanding of the environmental drivers of the mortality patterns we observed is currently being applied to developing strategies to restore and manage remaining populations. AU - Raymundo, L. J. AU - Burdick, D. AU - Lapacek, V. A. AU - Miller, R. AU - Brown, V. DA - 2017 DO - 10.3354/meps12005 PY - 2017 SP - 47-55 ST - Anomalous temperatures and extreme tides: Guam staghorn Acropora succumb to a double threat T2 - Marine Ecology Progress Series TI - Anomalous temperatures and extreme tides: Guam staghorn Acropora succumb to a double threat VL - 564 ID - 22503 ER - TY - JOUR AB - More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km 2 ). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis ; black-footed albatross, P . nigripes ; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca ). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels. AU - Reynolds, Michelle H. AU - Courtot, Karen N. AU - Berkowitz, Paul AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Moore, Janet AU - Flint, Elizabeth DA - 2015/09/23/ DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0136773 DP - PLoS Journals IS - 9 KW - Hawaii Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation birds marine ecosystems flooding impact atolls storms biodiversity Animal sexual behavior coastal effects Ocean waves Petrels Seabirds PY - 2015 SN - 1932-6203 SP - e0136773 ST - Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific island seabirds? T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific island seabirds? VL - 10 Y2 - 2016/08/27/02:01:21 ID - 22504 ER - TY - PCOMM AU - Lo, Rhonda ST - Personal communication with the Chief of Natural Resource Mangement at Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park National Park Service TI - Personal communication with the Chief of Natural Resource Mangement at Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park National Park Service ID - 22505 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. AU - Ricke, K. L. AU - Orr, J. C. AU - Schneider, K. AU - Caldeira, K. DA - 2013 DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 DP - Institute of Physics IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 034003 ST - Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections VL - 8 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:02:27 ID - 22506 ER - TY - JOUR AB - This study addresses gaps in understanding the relative roles of sea-level change, coastal geomorphology and sediment availability in driving beach erosion at the scale of individual beaches. Patterns of historical shoreline change for spatial relationships to geomorphology and for temporal relationships to late-Holocene and modern sea-level change are examined. The study area shoreline on the north-east coast of Oahu, Hawaii, is characterized by a series of kilometres-long beaches with repeated headland-embayed morphology fronted by a carbonate fringing reef. The beaches are the seaward edge of a carbonate sand-rich coastal strand plain, a common morphological setting in tectonically-stable tropical island coasts. Multiple lines of geological evidence indicate that the strand plain prograded atop a fringing reef platform during a period of late Holocene sea-level fall. Analysis of historical shoreline changes indicates an overall trend of erosion (shoreline recession) along headland sections of beach and an overall trend of stable to accreting beaches along adjoining embayed sections. Eighty eight percent of headland beaches eroded over the past century at an average rate of -0.12 ± 0.03 m/yr. In contrast, 56% of embayed beaches accreted at an average rate of 0.04 ± 0.03 m/yr. Given over a century of global (and local) sea-level rise, the data indicates that embayed beaches are showing remarkable resiliency. The pattern of headland beach erosion and stable to accreting embayments suggests a shift from accretion to erosion particular to the headland beaches with the initiation of modern sea-level rise. These results emphasize the need to account for localized variations in beach erosion related to geomorphology and alongshore sediment transport in attempting to forecast future shoreline change under increasing sea-level rise. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. AU - Romine, Bradley M. AU - Fletcher, Charles H. AU - Frazer, L. Neil AU - Anderson, Tiffany R. DA - 2016/01/01/ DO - 10.1111/sed.12264 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 5 KW - Hawaii Sea level Oahu Adaptation coastal sea-level erosion Beach shoreline LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 1365-3091 SP - 1321-1332 ST - Beach erosion under rising sea-level modulated by coastal geomorphology and sediment availability on carbonate reef-fringed island coasts T2 - Sedimentology TI - Beach erosion under rising sea-level modulated by coastal geomorphology and sediment availability on carbonate reef-fringed island coasts VL - 63 Y2 - 2016/02/27/01:28:33 ID - 22507 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Rosinski, Anne AU - Walsh, William AU - Oliver, Thomas A. AU - Williams, Ivor AU - Gove, Jamison AU - Gorospe, Kelvin AU - Birkeland, Charles AU - White, Darla AU - Conklin, Eric CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2017 M3 - Prepared for State of Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Aquatic Resources PB - University of Hawaii, Coral Bleaching Recovery Steering Committee PY - 2017 SP - 47 ST - Coral Bleaching Recovery Plan: Identifying Management Responses to Promote Coral Recovery in Hawaiʻi TI - Coral Bleaching Recovery Plan: Identifying Management Responses to Promote Coral Recovery in Hawaiʻi UR - http://dlnr.hawaii.gov/reefresponse/current-rapid-responses/coral-bleaching-recovery-plan/ ID - 22508 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate—of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and “business as usual” future Penman–Monteith PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 13 modern global climate models. The percentage change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models.These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET percentage change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor deficit and increasing Clausius–Clapeyron slope). This direct-warming term accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5%–6% °C−1 (related to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the intermodel spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET percentage change fields. AU - Scheff, Jacob AU - Frierson, Dargan M. W. DA - 2013/11/01/ DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00233.1 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 0894-8755 SP - 1539-1558 ST - Scaling potential evapotranspiration with greenhouse warming T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Scaling potential evapotranspiration with greenhouse warming VL - 27 Y2 - 2017/09/26/20:16:31 ID - 22509 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We employ Sentinel-1a C band satellite radar interferometry data in Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans mode to map the grounding line and ice velocity of Pope, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, in West Antarctica, for the years 2014–2016 and compare the results with those obtained using Earth Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS-1/2) in 1992, 1996, and 2011. We observe an ongoing, rapid grounding line retreat of Smith at 2 km/yr (40 km since 1996), an 11 km retreat of Pope (0.5 km/yr), and a 2 km readvance of Kohler since 2011. The variability in glacier retreat is consistent with the distribution of basal slopes, i.e., fast along retrograde beds and slow along prograde beds. We find that several pinning points holding Dotson and Crosson ice shelves disappeared since 1996 due to ice shelf thinning, which signal the ongoing weakening of these ice shelves. Overall, the results indicate that ice shelf and glacier retreat in this sector remain unabated. AU - Scheuchl, B. AU - Mouginot, J. AU - Rignot, E. AU - Morlighem, M. AU - Khazendar, A. DA - 2016/08/28/ DO - 10.1002/2016GL069287 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 16 KW - 0720 Glaciers 0728 Ice shelves 0758 Remote sensing 0762 Mass balance 0774 Dynamics Grounding Line Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 8572–8579 ST - Grounding line retreat of Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, measured with Sentinel-1a radar interferometry data T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Grounding line retreat of Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, measured with Sentinel-1a radar interferometry data VL - 43 ID - 22510 ER - TY - RPRT AU - SPREP CY - Apia, Samoa N1 - 978-982-04-0501-1 (print) 978-982-04-0502-8 (ecopy) PB - Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and United Nations Development Programme PY - 2013 RP - 978-982-04-0501-1 (print) 978-982-04-0502-8 (ecopy) SP - 42 ST - Adapting to Climate Change in the Pacific: The PACC [Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change] Programme TI - Adapting to Climate Change in the Pacific: The PACC [Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change] Programme UR - http://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/8948 ID - 22512 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Senina, Inna AU - Lehodey, Patrick AU - Calmettes, Beatriz AU - Nicol, Simon AU - Caillot, Sylvain AU - Hampton, John AU - Williams, Peter CY - Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia M3 - Twelfth Regualr Session of the Scientific Committee of the WCPFC NV - WCPFC-SC12-2016/EB WP-01 PB - Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) PY - 2016 SN - WCPFC-SC12-2016/EB WP-01 SP - 70 ST - Predicting Skipjack Tuna Dynamics and Effects of Climate Change Using SEAPODYM with Fishing and Tagging Data TI - Predicting Skipjack Tuna Dynamics and Effects of Climate Change Using SEAPODYM with Fishing and Tagging Data UR - https://www.wcpfc.int/node/27443 ID - 22513 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kapua‘ala Sproat, D. IS - 2 PY - 2016 SP - 157-220 ST - An indigenous people's right to environmental self-determination: Native Hawaiians and the struggle against climate change devastation T2 - Stanford Environmental Law Journal TI - An indigenous people's right to environmental self-determination: Native Hawaiians and the struggle against climate change devastation UR - https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/bitstream/10125/46075/1/35StanEnvtlLJ157.pdf VL - 35 ID - 22514 ER - TY - WEB AU - KHON Web Staff CY - Honolulu, HI DA - August 20, 2015 PB - KHON2 (Nexstar Broadcasting) PY - 2015 ST - HECO lifts power conservation amid hot, muggy conditions TI - HECO lifts power conservation amid hot, muggy conditions UR - https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/heco-lifts-power-conservation-amid-hot-muggy-conditions/1025558794 ID - 22515 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Hawaii Office of Planning CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2012 PB - Hawaii Department of Business Economic Development & Tourism, Office of Planning PY - 2012 SP - 47 ST - Increased Food Security and Food Self-Sufficiency Strategy TI - Increased Food Security and Food Self-Sufficiency Strategy UR - http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/op/spb/INCREASED_FOOD_SECURITY_AND_FOOD_SELF_SUFFICIENCY_STRATEGY.pdf ID - 22516 ER - TY - JOUR AB - It is estimated that by 2050 as many as 75 million people in the Asia-Pacific region will be forced to migrate from their homelands due to the negative impacts of climate change. While many representations of Pacific Island communities affected by climate change emphasize helplessness, Pacific Islanders have been negotiating identities of empowerment and resilience in both political and cultural arenas. This essay provides an analysis of the messages that Islander performers have chosen to convey through three performance contexts: the 2011 Water Is Rising concert tour, which featured groups from Kiribati, Tokelau, and Tuvalu; 350 Pacific’s Pacific Warrior Campaign, including both the 2013 Warrior Day of Action and the 2014 Canoe Building Day of Action; and the multimedia dramatic performance Moana: The Rising of the Sea, written and produced by Vilsoni Hereniko. Through these three campaigns, we can see that Islanders are actively shaping their identity in the face of climate change, choosing to be seen not as victims in a far and rising sea but rather as a sea of warriors with the power to rise up, work together, and make their voices heard in order to save the lands and cultures that they cherish.It is estimated that by 2050 as many as 75 million people in the Asia-Pacific region will be forced to migrate from their homelands due to the negative impacts of climate change. While many representations of Pacific Island communities affected by climate change emphasize helplessness, Pacific Islanders have been negotiating identities of empowerment and resilience in both political and cultural arenas. This essay provides an analysis of the messages that Islander performers have chosen to convey through three performance contexts: the 2011 Water Is Rising concert tour, which featured groups from Kiribati, Tokelau, and Tuvalu; 350 Pacific’s Pacific Warrior Campaign, including both the 2013 Warrior Day of Action and the 2014 Canoe Building Day of Action; and the multimedia dramatic performance Moana: The Rising of the Sea, written and produced by Vilsoni Hereniko. Through these three campaigns, we can see that Islanders are actively shaping their identity in the face of climate change, choosing to be seen not as victims in a far and rising sea but rather as a sea of warriors with the power to rise up, work together, and make their voices heard in order to save the lands and cultures that they cherish. AU - Steiner, Candice Elanna DA - 2015 DP - scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu IS - 1 PY - 2015 SN - 1043-898X SP - 147-180 ST - A sea of warriors: Performing an identity of resilience and empowerment in the face of climate change in the Pacific T2 - The Contemporary Pacific TI - A sea of warriors: Performing an identity of resilience and empowerment in the face of climate change in the Pacific UR - http://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/bitstream/10125/38768/1/v27n1-147-180.pdf VL - 27 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:51:08 ID - 22517 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Stevens, Laura E. AU - Frankson, Rebekah AU - Kunkel, Kenneth E. AU - Chu, Pao-Shin AU - Sweet, William CY - [Asheville, NC] DA - 2017 KW - Hawaii assessment NV - NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-HI PB - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information PY - 2017 SP - 5 ST - State Climate Summary: Hawai‘i TI - State Climate Summary: Hawai‘i UR - https://statesummaries.ncics.org/hi ID - 22518 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change. AU - Stock, Charles A. AU - John, Jasmin G. AU - Rykaczewski, Ryan R. AU - Asch, Rebecca G. AU - Cheung, William W. L. AU - Dunne, John P. AU - Friedland, Kevin D. AU - Lam, Vicky W. Y. AU - Sarmiento, Jorge L. AU - Watson, Reg A. DA - 2017/02/21/ DO - 10.1073/pnas.1610238114 DP - PubMed IS - 8 KW - fisheries catch food webs ocean productivity primary production LA - eng PY - 2017 SN - 1091-6490 SP - E1441-E1449 ST - Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity VL - 114 ID - 22519 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Berkowitz, Paul AU - Reynolds, Michelle H. AU - Logan, Joshua B. CY - Reston, VA DA - 2013 KW - Hawaii winds and waves Vulnerability Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation marine ecosystems NV - USGS Open-File Report 2013–1069 PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2013 SP - 78 ST - Forecasting the Impact of Storm Waves and Sea-Level Rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island Within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—A Comparison of Passive Versus Dynamic Inundation Models TI - Forecasting the Impact of Storm Waves and Sea-Level Rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island Within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—A Comparison of Passive Versus Dynamic Inundation Models UR - https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1069/ ID - 22520 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought. AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Elias, Edwin P. L. AU - Berkowitz, Paul DA - 2015/09/25/ DO - 10.1038/srep14546 DP - PubMed Central KW - Sea level coastal inundation impact atolls migration wind and waves coastal effects PY - 2015 SN - 2045-2322 SP - 14546 ST - Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change VL - 5 Y2 - 2016/08/27/02:26:05 ID - 22521 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. AU - Shope, James B. AU - Erikson, Li H. AU - Hergermiller, Christine A. AU - Barnard, Patrick L. DA - 2015 DO - 10.3133/ofr20151001 PY - 2015 SN - USGS Open-File Report 2015–1001 SP - 426 ST - Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands TI - Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands ID - 22522 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is anticipated to affect freshwater resources, but baseline data on the functioning of tropical watersheds is lacking, limiting efforts that seek to predict how watershed processes, water supply, and streamflow respond to anticipated changes in climate and vegetation change, and to management. To address this data gap, we applied the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) across 88 watersheds spanning a highly constrained, 4500 mm mean annual rainfall (MAR) gradient on Hawai‘i Island to quantify stream flow at 3-h time-steps for eight years in response to the independent and interactive effects of (1) large observed decrease in MAR; (2) projected warming and altered precipitation; and (3) four scenarios of forest invasion by the high water-demanding non-native tree species Psidium cattleianum. The model captured 62% of variability in measured flow at daily time scales, 95% at monthly time scales, and 98% at annual time scales. We found that low DHSVM modeled flow (Q90) and storm flow (Q10) responses to observed declines in rainfall dwarfed those of projected temperature increase or invasion, with flow decline positively correlated with MAR. As a percentage of streamflow, temperature and invasion reductions were negatively correlated with MAR. By comparison, warming alone had little effect on Q90 or Q10, but both decreased with increasing P. cattleianum cover, and projected effects of declining MAR were accentuated when combined with P. cattleianum and warming. Restoration mitigated some effects of climate warming by increasing stream base flows, with the relative effects of restoration being larger in drier versus wetter watersheds. We conclude that potential changes in climate in tropical environments are likely to exert significant effects on streamflow, but managing vegetation can provide mitigating benefits. AU - Strauch, Ayron M. AU - Giardina, Christian P. AU - MacKenzie, Richard A. AU - Heider, Chris AU - Giambelluca, Tom W. AU - Salminen, Ed AU - Bruland, Gregory L. DA - 2017/04/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10021-016-0038-3 DP - link.springer.com IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1432-9840, 1435-0629 SP - 583-600 ST - Modeled effects of climate change and plant invasion on watershed function across a steep tropical rainfall gradient T2 - Ecosystems TI - Modeled effects of climate change and plant invasion on watershed function across a steep tropical rainfall gradient VL - 20 Y2 - 2017/09/22/21:23:35 ID - 22523 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Sutton, Jessica AU - Luchetti, Nicholas AU - Wright, Ethan AU - Kruk, Michael C. AU - Marra, John J. CY - Asheville, NC DA - 2015 PB - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information PY - 2015 SP - 478 ST - An El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Based Precipitation Climatology for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) Using the PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR) TI - An El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Based Precipitation Climatology for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) Using the PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR) UR - ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/coastal/ENSO_Rainfall_Atlas.pdf ID - 22524 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A category 5 tropical cyclone swept a storm surge across remote Pukapuka Atoll in the Northern Cook Islands (South Pacific Ocean) in late February 2005. Groundwater salinity (specific conductance) observations are reported for the 2-year post-storm period, with the aim of investigating the effects of saltwater intrusion on thin freshwater lenses within the atoll islets. This is the first article to present field observations of such an event. Specific conductance at shallow depths increased dramatically from potable conditions (approximately 1,000 μS/cm) to brackish levels unsuitable for drinking (up to 10,000 μS/cm) shortly after the cyclone. Subsequently, the freshwater lenses required 11 months to recover. Within the thickest aquifer, a well-defined saline plume formed at 6 m depth, sandwiching a freshwater layer beneath it and the base of the lens. Plume dispersal proceeded only gradually, owing to its formation at the start of the SW Pacific regional dry season and the low tidal range on Pukapuka. Consequently, the remnant of the plume was still present 26 months after the saltwater incursion. An important finding was that the freshwater horizon preserved at depth maintained salinity levels below 1,800 μS/cm (i.e. within usable limits) for at least 5 months after surface overwash. AU - Terry, James P. AU - Falkland, Anthony C. DA - 2010/05/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10040-009-0544-x DP - link.springer.com IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2010 SN - 1431-2174, 1435-0157 SP - 749-759 ST - Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-surge overwash in the Northern Cook Islands T2 - Hydrogeology Journal TI - Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-surge overwash in the Northern Cook Islands VL - 18 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:02:28 ID - 22525 ER - TY - WEB AU - The Nature Conservancy DA - 2017 PB - The Nature Conservancy, Reef Resilience PY - 2017 ST - Coral Reef Module: Overfishing and destructive fishing threats TI - Coral Reef Module: Overfishing and destructive fishing threats UR - http://www.reefresilience.org/coral-reefs/stressors/local-stressors/overfishing-and-destructive-fishing-threats/ ID - 22526 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Seasonal mean rainfall projections for Hawai‘i are given based on statistical downscaling of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global model results for two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The spatial information content of our statistical downscaling method is improved over previous efforts through the inclusion of spatially extensive, high-quality monthly rainfall data set and the use of improved large-scale climate predictor information. Predictor variables include moisture transport in the middle atmosphere (700 hPa), vertical temperature gradients, and geopotential height fields of the 1000 and 500 hPa layers. The results allow for the first time to derive a spatially interpolated map with future rainfall change estimates for the main Hawaiian Islands. The statistical downscaling was applied to project wet (November–April) and dry (May–October) season rainfall anomalies for the middle and late 21st century. Overall, the statistical downscaling gives more reliable results for the wet season than for the dry season. The wet-season results indicate a pronounced dipole structure between windward facing mountain slopes and the leeward side of most of the islands. The climatically wet regions on the windward slopes of the mountain regions are expected to become wetter or remain stable in their seasonal precipitation amounts. On the climatically dry leeward sides of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, future precipitation exhibits the strongest drying trends. The projected future rainfall anomaly pattern is associated with a circulation anomaly that resembles a shift in the position or strength of the subtropical high and the average location of extratropical troughs. These new results suggest that a negative trend dominates the area-averaged changes in the statistical downscaling over the Hawaiian Islands. However, the islands are expected to experience a greater contrast between the wet and dry regions in the future. AU - Elison Timm, Oliver AU - Giambelluca, Thomas W. AU - Diaz, Henry F. DA - 2015/01/16/ DO - 10.1002/2014JD022059 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 1 KW - Rainfall Hawaii freshwater 1626 Global climate models 3305 Climate change and variability 1637 Regional climate change CMIP 3354 Precipitation 4318 Statistical analysis Statistical Downscaling LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 2169-8996 SP - 92–112 ST - Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres TI - Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections VL - 120 Y2 - 2016/02/04/02:00:11 ID - 22527 ER - TY - RPRT AU - UNEP CY - Nairobi, Kenya DA - 2016 N1 - ISBN: 9789280735529 PB - UN Environment Programme (UNEP) PY - 2016 RP - ISBN: 9789280735529 SP - 70 ST - Loss and Damage: The role of Ecosystem Services TI - Loss and Damage: The role of Ecosystem Services UR - http://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:5614 ID - 22528 ER - TY - WEB AU - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 1992 LA - En-us PB - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center PY - 1992 ST - The 1992 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season TI - The 1992 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season UR - http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1992.php ID - 22530 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine-protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014-2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs. AU - van Oppen, Madeleine J. H. AU - Gates, Ruth D. AU - Blackall, Linda L. AU - Cantin, Neal AU - Chakravarti, Leela J. AU - Chan, Wing Y. AU - Cormick, Craig AU - Crean, Angela AU - Damjanovic, Katarina AU - Epstein, Hannah AU - Harrison, Peter L. AU - Jones, Thomas A. AU - Miller, Margaret AU - Pears, Rachel J. AU - Peplow, Lesa M. AU - Raftos, David A. AU - Schaffelke, Britta AU - Stewart, Kristen AU - Torda, Gergely AU - Wachenfeld, David AU - Weeks, Andrew R. AU - Putnam, Hollie M. DA - 2017/09// DO - 10.1111/gcb.13647 DP - PubMed IS - 9 KW - global warming restoration assisted evolution hybrid ecosystems rehabilitation scleractinia LA - eng PY - 2017 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 3437-3448 ST - Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs VL - 23 ID - 22531 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A comparative study was undertaken of the fate of fine sediment in the Ngerikiil and Ngerdorch mangrove-fringed estuaries in Babeldaob Island, Palau, Micronesia, in 2002. The mangroves comprised 3.8% of each catchment area, and in both systems, they trapped about 30% of the riverine sediment. Mangroves are important buffers protecting fringing coral reefs from excessive sedimentation. The sediment yield was significantly higher in the Ngerikiil River catchment (150 tons km−2 yr−1) that has been extensively cleared and farmed, than in Ngerdorch River catchment (1.9 tons km−2 yr−1) that was still relatively pristine during the study period. AU - Victor, S. AU - Golbuu, Y. AU - Wolanski, E. AU - Richmond, R. H. DA - 2004/08/01/ DO - 10.1007/s11273-005-8319-1 DP - link.springer.com IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2004 SN - 0923-4861, 1572-9834 SP - 277-283 ST - Fine sediment trapping in two mangrove-fringed estuaries exposed to contrasting land-use intensity, Palau, Micronesia T2 - Wetlands Ecology and Management TI - Fine sediment trapping in two mangrove-fringed estuaries exposed to contrasting land-use intensity, Palau, Micronesia VL - 12 Y2 - 2017/09/23/02:47:27 ID - 22532 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations. AU - Vitousek, Sean AU - Barnard, Patrick L. AU - Fletcher, Charles H. AU - Frazer, Neil AU - Erikson, Li AU - Storlazzi, Curt D. DA - 2017/05/18/ DO - 10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7 DP - www.nature.com IS - 1 LA - En PY - 2017 SN - 2045-2322 SP - 1399 ST - Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise VL - 7 Y2 - 2017/09/25/22:55:07 ID - 22533 ER - TY - ANCIENT AU - Wagner, Daniel AU - Polhemus, Daniel CY - Silver Spring, MD DA - 2016 NV - Marine Sanctuaries Conservation Series ONMS-16-03 PB - NOAA, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries PY - 2016 SP - 89 ST - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. Marine Sanctuaries Conservation TI - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. Marine Sanctuaries Conservation UR - https://nmssanctuaries.blob.core.windows.net/sanctuaries-prod/media/archive/science/conservation/pdfs/pmnm-climate-change.pdf ID - 22534 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Amphidromous fishes are important members of oceanic island freshwater communities. Although often depauperate, amphidromous fish assemblages on islands are largely composed of endemic species. Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic AU - Walter, R. P. AU - Hogan, J. D. AU - Blum, M. J. AU - Gagne, R. B. AU - Hain, E. F. AU - Gilliam, J. F. AU - McIntyre, P. B. DA - 2012 DO - 10.3354/esr00404 PY - 2012 SN - 1613-4796 SP - 261-272 ST - Climate change and conservation of endemic amphidromous fishes in Hawaiian streams T2 - Endangered Species Research TI - Climate change and conservation of endemic amphidromous fishes in Hawaiian streams VL - 16 ID - 22535 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Up to present, research relating environmental change to human mobility has found out that environmental factors can play a role in migration without being conclusive. Further, in the context of climate change, scholarly literature on migration ranges across a host of climatic stressors and geographies, making it difficult to date to solve the debate whether migration is a form of adaptation or an indicator of limits to adaptation. To address both of these debates, original research was undertaken to answer the question ?under what circumstances do households (HHs) use migration as a risk management strategy when facing rainfall variability and food insecurity??. This research administered a HH survey (n?=?1300) and participatory research (n?=?2000 respondents) in districts in eight countries (Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Vietnam). The findings reveal that the answer to how climatic stressors affect migration decisions and the degree to which migration improves the adaptive capacity of those HHs lie in the vulnerability of the HH and its sensitivity to climatic factors. The data reveal for the first time in a comparable global study distinct HH profiles of ?resilience? and ?vulnerability?. At the same time, the article distinguishes between ?content? migration ? rather associated with resilient HHs ? and ?erosive? migration ? rather associated with vulnerable HHs. However, the article also highlights that there are not always clear cuts but very often grey areas and overlaps among the HHs of the study when applying these typologies. Moreover, the article relates these profiles to an agent-based modelling approach applied in the Tanzania case to explore under what scenarios rainfall variability and food security have the potential to become significant drivers of human mobility in particular regions of the world in the next two to three decades. AU - Warner, Koko AU - Afifi, Tamer DA - 2014/01/02/ DO - 10.1080/17565529.2013.835707 IS - 1 PY - 2014 SN - 1756-5529 SP - 1-17 ST - Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity T2 - Climate and Development TI - Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity VL - 6 ID - 22536 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Warner, Koko AU - Ehrhart, Charles AU - de Sherbinin, Alex AU - Adamo, Susana AU - Chai-Onn, Tricia CY - New York, NY DA - 2009 PB - Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere, Inc. (CARE) PY - 2009 SP - 26 ST - In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement TI - In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement UR - http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/documents/clim-migr-report-june09_media.pdf ID - 22537 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Loss and damage is already a significant consequence of inadequate ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns. This paper reports on the first ever multi-country, evidence-based study on loss and damage from the perspective of affected people in least developed and other vulnerable countries. Researchers in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal conducted household surveys (n=3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and open interviews about loss and damage. The research reveals four loss and damage pathways. Residual impacts of climate stressors occur when: 1) existing coping/adaptation to biophysical impact is not enough; 2) measures have costs (including non-economic) that cannot be regained; 3) despite short-term merits, measures have negative effects in the longer term; or 4) no measures are adopted – or possible – at all. AU - Warner, Koko AU - van der Geest, Kees DA - 2013/01/01/ DO - 10.1504/IJGW.2013.057289 DP - inderscienceonline.com (Atypon) IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 1758-2083 SP - 367-386 ST - Loss and damage from climate change: Local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries T2 - International Journal of Global Warming TI - Loss and damage from climate change: Local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries VL - 5 Y2 - 2017/09/26/08:18:12 ID - 22538 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’ practices to enable communities to adapt and recover from such hazards. Some of these practices have been degraded and some assisted by modernisation. Through their effects on the island environment, these hazards have a range of socio-economic impacts on food (fisheries and crops) and water supply, tourism, and coastal buildings and infrastructure. The varied impacts of climate change not only exacerbate those hazards but also raise new threats, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification, that have no precedent in the past 500 years, and for which there are therefore no traditional adaptations, although Pacific innate ingenuity and resilience remains strong. These issues are particularly acute for the low-lying atoll countries whose continued existence is threatened by sea level rise, but also affect those that live on higher islands in coastal settlements, where most of their population is concentrated. Climate change thus sharpens social and cultural issues of equity (reflecting disparities in location, income, education, gender, health and age), made even more acute by increased levels of voluntary or forced migration within, and even more so beyond, island country boundaries. Consequently, many islanders see climate change as a moral challenge to the richer countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the problem. AU - Weir, Tony AU - Dovey, Liz AU - Orcherton, Dan DA - 2017/04/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10113-016-1012-5 DP - link-springer-com.eres.library.manoa.hawaii.edu IS - 4 LA - en PY - 2017 SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X SP - 1017-1028 ST - Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: An overview T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: An overview VL - 17 Y2 - 2017/09/26/00:11:36 ID - 22539 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Pelagics Plan Team and Council Staff CY - Honolulu, HI DA - 2015 PB - NOAA, NMFS, Western Pacific Regional PY - 2015 SP - 309 ST - Pelagic Fisheries of the Western Pacific Region: 2013 Annual Report TI - Pelagic Fisheries of the Western Pacific Region: 2013 Annual Report UR - http://www.wpcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-Pelagics-Annual-Report_Final.pdf ID - 22540 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. Using climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases, we find a doubling in extreme sea levels in the tropical Pacific. Using climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases, we find a doubling in extreme sea levels in the tropical Pacific. AU - Widlansky, Matthew J. AU - Timmermann, Axel AU - Cai, Wenju DA - 2015/09/01/ DO - 10.1126/sciadv.1500560 DP - advances.sciencemag.org IS - 8 KW - ENSO Pacific Ocean climate projections Sea level LA - en PY - 2015 SN - 2375-2548 SP - e1500560 ST - Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific T2 - Science Advances TI - Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific VL - 1 Y2 - 2016/01/14/00:10:13 ID - 22541 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Traditional knowledge is increasingly recognized as valuable for adaptation to climate change, bringing scientists and indigenous peoples together to collaborate and exchange knowledge. These partnerships can benefit both researchers and indigenous peoples through mutual learning and mutual knowledge generation. Despite these benefits, most descriptions focus on the social contexts of exchange. The implications of the multiple cultural, legal, risk-benefit and governance contexts of knowledge exchange have been less recognized. The failure to consider these contexts of knowledge exchange can result in the promotion of benefits while failing to adequately address adverse consequences. The purpose of this article is to promote awareness of these issues to encourage their wider incorporation into research, policy, measures to implement free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) and the development of equitable adaptation partnerships between indigenous peoples and researchers. AU - Williams, Terry AU - Hardison, Preston DA - 2013/10/01/ DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0850-0 DP - link.springer.com IS - 3 LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 SP - 531-544 ST - Culture, law, risk and governance: Contexts of traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation T2 - Climatic Change TI - Culture, law, risk and governance: Contexts of traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation VL - 120 Y2 - 2017/09/25/23:54:29 ID - 22542 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Wongbusarakum, Supin AU - Pomeroy, Bob CY - Apia, Samoa DA - 2008 M3 - SEM-Pasifika PB - Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme PY - 2008 SP - 137 ST - SEM-Pasifika: Socio-economic Monitoring Guidelines for Coastal Managers in Pacific Island Countries TI - SEM-Pasifika: Socio-economic Monitoring Guidelines for Coastal Managers in Pacific Island Countries UR - https://www.conservationgateway.org/ExternalLinks/Pages/sem-pasifika-socioeconomi.aspx ID - 22543 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.* AU - Woodroffe, C. D. AU - Rogers, K. AU - McKee, K. L. AU - Lovelock, C. E. AU - Mendelssohn, I. A. AU - Saintilan, N. DA - 2016 DO - 10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-034025 DP - Annual Reviews IS - 1 PY - 2016 SP - 243-266 ST - Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise T2 - Annual Review of Marine Science TI - Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise VL - 8 ID - 22544 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2 – 5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries’ economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts in order to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. AU - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A. AU - Polovina, Jeffrey J. AU - Drazen, Jeffrey C. DA - 2016/08/01/ DO - 10.1111/gcb.13471 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 3 KW - CMIP5 Ecosystems CMIP Climate Change Impacts marine ecosystems impact fisheries ocean and marine resources carrying capacity commercial fisheries North Pacific pelagic habitat zooplankton LA - en PY - 2016 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 1000-1008 ST - Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems VL - 23 Y2 - 2016/08/26/20:56:31 ID - 22545 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. AU - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A. AU - Polovina, Jeffrey J. AU - Dunne, John P. AU - Blanchard, Julia L. DA - 2013/03/01/ DO - 10.1111/gcb.12076 DP - Wiley Online Library IS - 3 KW - climate projections Ecosystems marine ecosystems fisheries catch ocean and marine resources North Pacific biomes ecosystem model size structure LA - en PY - 2013 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 724-733 ST - Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: Large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: Large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current VL - 19 Y2 - 2016/08/26/01:46:04 ID - 22546 ER - TY - RPRT AU - World Bank CY - Washington, DC DA - 2016 PB - World Bank-Pacific Possible PY - 2016 SP - 67 ST - Climate and Disaster Resilience TI - Climate and Disaster Resilience UR - http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/720371469614841726/PACIFIC-POSSIBLE-Climate.pdf ID - 22547 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion–base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially (~83% to ~91%). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model’s moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison. AU - Zhang, Chunxi AU - Wang, Yuqing AU - Hamilton, Kevin AU - Lauer, Axel DA - 2016/08/26/ DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) IS - 23 PY - 2016 SN - 0894-8755 SP - 8333-8354 ST - Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century VL - 29 ID - 22548 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The dangers that future climate change poses to physical, biological, and economic systems are accounted for in analyses of risk and increasingly figure in decision-making about responses to climate change. Yet the potential cultural and social impacts of climate change have scarcely been considered. In this article we bring the risks climate change poses to cultures and social systems into consideration through a focus on places—those local material and symbolic contexts that give meaning and value to peoples' lives. By way of examples, the article reviews evidence on the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the Arctic and Pacific island atoll nations. It shows that impacts may result in the loss of many unique natural and cultural components of these places. We then argue that the risk of irreversible loss of places needs to be factored into decision-making on climate change. The article then suggests ways forward in decision-making that recognizes these non-market and non-instrumental metrics of risk, based on principles of justice and recognition of individual and community identity. AU - Adger, W. Neil AU - Barnett, Jon AU - Chapin, F. S., III AU - Ellemor, Heidi DO - 10.1162/GLEP_a_00051 IS - 2 PY - 2011 SP - 1-25 ST - This must be the place: Underrepresentation of identity and meaning in climate change decision-making T2 - Global Environmental Politics TI - This must be the place: Underrepresentation of identity and meaning in climate change decision-making VL - 11 ID - 22549 ER - TY - RPRT AU - One World One Water CY - Honolulu, HI PB - State of Hawaii, Department of Land and Natural Resources PY - 2017 SP - 131 ST - Hawaii Drought Plan: 2017 Update TI - Hawaii Drought Plan: 2017 Update UR - http://files.hawaii.gov/dlnr/cwrm/planning/HDP2017.pdf ID - 22550 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Asch, Rebecca G. AU - Cheung, William W. L. AU - Reygondeau, Gabriel DA - 2018/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.08.015 KW - Climate change Pacific Island countries and territories Marine biogeochemistry Biodiversity Maximum catch potential Marine fisheries PY - 2018 SN - 0308-597X SP - 285-294 ST - Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change T2 - Marine Policy TI - Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change VL - 88 ID - 25859 ER - TY - JOUR AB - As ecosystem service assessments increasingly contribute to decisions about managing Earth’s lands and waters, there is a growing need to understand the diverse ways that people use and value landscapes. However, these assessments rarely incorporate the value of landscapes to communities with strong cultural and generational ties to place, precluding inclusion of these values—alongside others—into planning processes. We developed a process to evaluate trade-offs and synergies in ecosystem services across land-use scenarios and under climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi, a tropical dry ecosystem where water, fire, biodiversity, and cultural values are all critical considerations for land management decisions. Specifically, we combined participatory deliberative methods, ecosystem service models, vegetation surveys, and document analysis to evaluate how cultural services, regulating services (groundwater recharge, landscape flammability reduction), biodiversity, and revenue: (1) vary across four land-use scenarios (pasture, coffee, agroforestry, and native forest restoration) and (2) are expected to vary with climate change (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 mid-century scenario). The native forest restoration scenario provided high cultural, biodiversity, and ecosystem service value, whereas coffee's strongest benefit was monetary return. The agroforestry scenario offered the greatest potential in terms of maximizing multiple services. Pasture had relatively low ecological and economic value but, as with native forest and agroforestry, held high value in terms of local knowledge and cultural connection to place. Climate change amplified existing vulnerabilities for groundwater recharge and landscape flammability, but resulted in few shifts in the ranking of land-use scenarios. Our results demonstrate that cultural services need not be sacrificed at the expense of other management objectives if they are deliberately included in land-use planning from the start. Meaningfully representing what matters most to diverse groups of people, now and under a changing climate, requires greater integration of participatory methods into ecosystem service analyses. AU - Bremer, Leah L. AU - Mandle, Lisa AU - Trauernicht, Clay AU - Pascua, Pua'ala AU - McMillen, Heather L. AU - Burnett, Kimberly AU - Wada, Christopher A. AU - Kurashima, Natalie AU - Quazi, Shimona A. AU - Giambelluca, Thomas AU - Chock, Pia AU - Ticktin, Tamara C7 - 33 DO - 10.5751/ES-09936-230133 IS - 1 KW - agroforestry ahupuaʻ a cultural services ecosystem services forest restoration hydrologic services islands landscape flammability land-use change watershed management PY - 2018 SP - 33 ST - Bringing multiple values to the table: Assessing future land-use and climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi T2 - Ecology and Society TI - Bringing multiple values to the table: Assessing future land-use and climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi VL - 23 ID - 25860 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cheng, Lijing AU - Zhu, Jiang DA - March 01 DO - 10.1007/s00376-018-8011-z IS - 3 M3 - journal article PY - 2018 SN - 1861-9533 SP - 261-263 ST - 2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean T2 - Advances in Atmospheric Sciences TI - 2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean VL - 35 ID - 25861 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Schoeneberger, Michele M. A2 - Bentrup, Gary A2 - Patel-Weynand, Toral AU - Friday, J. B. AU - Friday, Kathleen AU - Elevitch, Craig C4 - 7627ec00-a360-4058-83b6-d56946a8ca96 CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Department of Agricutlure, Forest Service PY - 2017 SP - 147-153 ST - Appendix A: Regional summaries: Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands T2 - Agroforestry: Enhancing Resiliency in U.S. Agricultural Landscapes Under Changing Conditions T3 - Gen. Tech. Report WO-96 TI - Appendix A: Regional summaries: Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands UR - https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55775 ID - 25862 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Erda, Lin A2 - Bolhofer, W.C. A2 - Huq, S. A2 - Lenhart, S. A2 - Mukherjee, S.K. A2 - Smith, J.B. A2 - Wisniewski, J. AU - Meehl, G. A. C4 - 8bc3a3d4-e52d-45d1-adc0-89a5691309ff CY - Netherlands DO - 10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4 PB - Springer PY - 1996 SN - 978-0-7923-4204-5 978-90-481-4745-8 978-94-017-1053-4 SP - 203-213 ST - Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region T2 - Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Manila, Philippines, 15–19 January 1996 TI - Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region ID - 25863 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change–driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2. Coupled with the average climate-change–driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. AU - Nerem, R. S. AU - Beckley, B. D. AU - Fasullo, J. T. AU - Hamlington, B. D. AU - Masters, D. AU - Mitchum, G. T. DO - 10.1073/pnas.1717312115 IS - 9 PY - 2018 SP - 2022-2025 ST - Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era VL - 115 ID - 25864 ER - TY - CONF AU - Piloting Climate Change Adaptation to Protect Human Health (PCCAPHH) CY - Suva, Fiji DA - 10-12 February 2015 PB - World Health Organization and Fiji Ministry of Health & Medical Services PY - 2015 ST - Climate Change and Vector-Borne Disease T2 - Workshop on Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases TI - Climate Change and Vector-Borne Disease UR - http://www.health.gov.fj/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/WHO-CCVBD-Workshop-Book-2015-Pages-1.pdf ID - 25865 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Russell, Lesley CY - Australia PB - Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney PY - 2011 SP - 43 ST - Poverty, Climate Change and Health in Pacific Island Countries: Issues to Consider in Discussion, Debate and Policy Development TI - Poverty, Climate Change and Health in Pacific Island Countries: Issues to Consider in Discussion, Debate and Policy Development UR - https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/9202 ID - 25866 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Rupic, Michael AU - Wetzell, Lauren AU - Marra, John J. AU - Salwani, Seema CY - Honolulu, HI PB - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) PY - 2018 SP - 48 ST - 2014-2016 El Niño Assessment Report: An Overview of the Impacts of the 2014-16 El Niño on the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) TI - 2014-2016 El Niño Assessment Report: An Overview of the Impacts of the 2014-16 El Niño on the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) UR - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/ENSOTT_Report_02.26.2018%20FINAL%20draft.pdf ID - 25867 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Marra, John J. AU - Kruk, Michael C. PB - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) PY - 2017 SP - 82 ST - State of Environmental Conditions in Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Under a Changing Climate: 2017 TI - State of Environmental Conditions in Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Under a Changing Climate: 2017 UR - https://statesummaries.ncics.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/PI_State_of_the_Environment_2017.pdf ID - 25868 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Hawai‘i Climate Commission CY - Honolulu, HI PB - Hawai‘i Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission PY - 2017 SP - 264 ST - Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report TI - Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report UR - https://climateadaptation.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SLR-Report_Dec2017.pdf ID - 25869 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Gregg, Rachel M. CY - Bainbridge, Island, WA PB - EcoAdapt PY - 2018 SP - 278 ST - Hawaiian Islands Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Synthesis TI - Hawaiian Islands Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Synthesis UR - https://www.cakex.org/documents/hawaiian-islands-climate-vulnerability-and-adaptation-synthesis ID - 25870 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Gillett, Robert AU - McCoy, Mike AU - Rodwell, Len AU - Tamate, Josie CY - Manila, Philippines N1 - ISBN: 971-561-335-7 PB - Asian Development Bank PY - 2001 RP - ISBN: 971-561-335-7 SP - 95 ST - Tuna: A Key Economic Resource in the Pacific Islands TI - Tuna: A Key Economic Resource in the Pacific Islands UR - https://www.adb.org/publications/tuna-key-economic-resource-pacific ID - 25871 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Althor, Glenn AU - Watson, James E. M. AU - Fuller, Richard A. DA - 02/05/online DO - 10.1038/srep20281 M3 - Article PY - 2016 SP - 20281 ST - Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change VL - 6 ID - 26411 ER - TY - RPRT AU - ADB CY - Madaluyong City, Philippines N1 - ISBN 978-92-9254-318-1 (Print), 978-92-9254-319-8 (PDF), 978-92-9254-328-0 (CD-ROM) PB - Asian Development Bank (ADB) PY - 2013 RP - ISBN 978-92-9254-318-1 (Print), 978-92-9254-319-8 (PDF), 978-92-9254-328-0 (CD-ROM) SP - 85 ST - The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific TI - The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific UR - https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/31136/economics-climate-change-pacific.pdf ID - 26412 ER - TY - DATA AU - Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M. AU - Poppenga, S.K. AU - Danielson, J.J AU - Tyler, D.J. AU - Gesch, D.B. AU - Kottermair, M. AU - Jalandoni, A. AU - Carlson, E. AU - Thatcher, C. AU - Barbee, M C4 - 507b398a-1bf5-41fe-835f-6f5d953a1c17 DO - 10.5066/F7416VXX PB - U.S. Geological Survey PY - 2017 ST - One meter topobathymetric digital elevation model for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 1944 to 2016 TI - One meter topobathymetric digital elevation model for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 1944 to 2016 ID - 26413 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Stahl, Shaina IS - 1 PY - 2010 SP - 1-52 ST - Unprotected ground: The plight of vanishing island nations T2 - New York International Law Review TI - Unprotected ground: The plight of vanishing island nations VL - 23 ID - 26414 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Pohnpei State CY - Federated States of Micronesia PY - 2015 SP - 87 ST - Pohnpei Joint State Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change TI - Pohnpei Joint State Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change UR - http://bsrp.gsd.spc.int/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/JSAP-report_web-1.pdf ID - 26415 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Greene, R. AU - Skeele, R. CY - Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands PB - Prepared for CNMI Office of the Governor, Division of Coastal Resources Management PY - 2014 SP - 95 ST - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Island of Saipan, CNMI TI - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Island of Saipan, CNMI UR - https://sablan.house.gov/sites/sablan.house.gov/files/documents/Climate%20Change%20Vulnerability%20Assessment%20For%20the%20Island%20of%20Saipan,%20CNMI.pdf ID - 26416 ER - TY - RPRT AU - RMI CY - Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) PY - 2014 SP - 56 ST - Republic of the Marshall Islands Joint National Action Plan For Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Management 2014–2018 TI - Republic of the Marshall Islands Joint National Action Plan For Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Management 2014–2018 UR - https://pafpnet.spc.int/attachments/article/782/RMI-JNAP-CCA-DRM-2014-18.pdf ID - 26417 ER - TY - RPRT AU - RMI CY - Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) PY - 2011 SP - 29 ST - National Climate Change Policy Framework TI - National Climate Change Policy Framework UR - https://www.sprep.org/attachments/Climate_Change/RMI_NCCP.pdf ID - 26418 ER -