TY - JOUR AB - Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide. AU - Bartomeus, I. AU - Ascher, J. S. AU - Gibbs, J. AU - Danforth, B. N. AU - Wagner, D. L. AU - Hedtke, S. M. AU - Winfree, R. C2 - 3606985 DA - Mar 19 DB - DO - 10.1073/pnas.1218503110 ET - 2013/03/15 IS - 12 KW - Adaptation, Physiological Animals Bees/ physiology Biodiversity Humans Pollination Population Dynamics United States LA - eng PY - 2013 SN - 1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) SP - 4656-4660 ST - Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits VL - 110 ID - 4106 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses. AD - Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. diffenbaugh@stanford.edu AU - Diffenbaugh, N. S. AU - Field, C. B. C6 - NIEHS DA - Aug 2 DB - DO - 10.1126/science.1237123 DP - CCII PubMed NLM ET - 2013/08/03 IS - 6145 KW - Climate Change Ecology Ecosystem Forecasting Global Warming Humans Models, Theoretical Temperature LA - eng PY - 2013 SN - 1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking) SP - 486-92 ST - Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions T2 - Science TI - Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions VL - 341 ID - 4324 ER - TY - JOUR AB - As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated. AD - School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. cschloss@u.washington.edu AU - Schloss, C. A. AU - Nunez, T. A. AU - Lawler, J. J. C2 - 3365214 C6 - NIEHS DA - May 29 DB - DO - 10.1073/pnas.1116791109 DP - CCII PubMed NLM ET - 2012/05/16 IS - 22 KW - Algorithms Animals Climate Climate Change Ecosystem Geography Humans Mammals/classification/ growth & development Models, Biological North America Population Dynamics South America Species Specificity LA - eng PY - 2012 SN - 1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) SP - 8606-11 ST - Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere VL - 109 ID - 5137 ER - TY - JOUR AB - By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations. AD - Rothamsted Research, Broom's Barn Research Centre, Higham, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, UK. keith.jaggard@bbsrc.ac.uk AU - Jaggard, K. W. AU - Qi, A. AU - Ober, E. S. C2 - 2935124 C6 - NIEHS DA - Sep 27 DO - 10.1098/rstb.2010.0153 DP - CCII PubMed NLM ET - 2010/08/18 IS - 1554 KW - Agriculture/ methods Carbon Dioxide Climate Change Crops, Agricultural/ growth & development Food Supply Humans Ozone Water LA - eng PY - 2010 SN - 1471-2970 (Electronic) 0962-8436 (Linking) SP - 2835-2851 ST - Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050 T2 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences TI - Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050 VL - 365 ID - 7134 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Melillo, Jerry M. A2 - Richmond, T.C. A2 - Yohe, Gary W. AU - Bennett, T.M. Bull AU - Maynard, Nancy G. AU - Cochran, Patricia AU - Gough, Robert AU - Lynn, Kathy AU - Maldonado, Julie AU - Voggesser, Garrit AU - Wotkyns, Susan AU - Cozzetto, Karen C4 - 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J09G5JR1 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2014 SP - 297-317 ST - Ch. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources T2 - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment TI - Ch. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources ID - 8656 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Melillo, Jerry M. AU - Richmond, T.C. AU - Yohe, Gary W. CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0Z31WJ2 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2014 RN - http://nca2014.globalchange.gov SN - 9780160924026 SP - 841 ST - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment TI - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment ID - 8675 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Lake Superior summer (July-September) surface water temperatures have increased approximately 2.5°C over the interval 1979-2006, equivalent to a rate of (11 ± 6) × 10^-2°C yr^-1, significantly in excess of regional atmospheric warming. This discrepancy is caused by declining winter ice cover, which is causing the onset of the positively stratified season to occur earlier at a rate of roughly a half day per year. An earlier start of the stratified season significantly increases the period over which the lake warms during the summer months, leading to a stronger trend in mean summer temperatures than would be expected from changes in summer air temperature alone. AU - Austin, Jay A. AU - Colman, Steven M. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1029/2006GL029021 IS - 6 KW - Lake Superior; climate change; ice; 0746 Cryosphere: Lakes; 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change; 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1845 Hydrology: Limnology; 4239 Oceanography: General: Limnology PY - 2007 SN - 0094-8276 SP - L06604 ST - Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback VL - 34 ID - 12523 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Basu, Rupa C6 - NCA C7 - 40 DO - 10.1186/1476-069X-8-40 PY - 2009 SN - 1476-069X SP - 40 ST - High ambient temperature and mortality: A review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008 T2 - Environmental Health TI - High ambient temperature and mortality: A review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008 VL - 8 ID - 12585 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Brook, B. W. AU - Sodhi, N. S. AU - Bradshaw, C. J. A. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.011 IS - 8 PY - 2008 SP - 453-460 ST - Synergies among extinction drivers under global change T2 - Trends in Ecology & Evolution TI - Synergies among extinction drivers under global change VL - 23 ID - 12719 ER - TY - RPRT AU - City of Chicago C6 - NCA PY - 2008 SP - 57 ST - Chicago Climate Action Plan: Our City. Our Future TI - Chicago Climate Action Plan: Our City. Our Future UR - http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/finalreport/CCAPREPORTFINALv2.pdf VL - 2008 ID - 12929 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Grabow, Maggie L. AU - Spak, Scott N. AU - Holloway, Tracey AU - Stone, Brian, Jr. AU - Mednick, Adam C. AU - Patz, Jonathan A. C6 - NCA DA - Jan DO - 10.1289/ehp.1103440 IS - 1 PY - 2012 SN - 0091-6765 SP - 68-76 ST - Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the midwestern United States T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the midwestern United States VL - 120 ID - 13566 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Groffman, P.M. AU - Rustad, L.E. AU - Templer, P.H. AU - Campbell, J.L. AU - Christenson, L.M. AU - Lany, N.K. AU - Socci, A.M. AU - Vadeboncouer, M.A. AU - Schaberg, P.G. AU - Wilson, G.F. AU - Driscoll, C.T. AU - Fahey, Timothy J. AU - Fisk, M.C. AU - Goodale, C.L. AU - Green, M.B. AU - Hamburg, Steven P. AU - Johnson, C.E. AU - Mitchell, M.J. AU - Morse, J. L. AU - Pardo, L.H. AU - Rodenhouse, N.L. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1525/bio.2012.62.12.7 IS - 12 PY - 2012 SN - 0006-3568 SP - 1056-1066 ST - Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in the northern hardwood forest T2 - BioScience TI - Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in the northern hardwood forest VL - 62 ID - 13599 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Changes in temperature, CO(2), and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 yr present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO(2), and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO(2), temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO(2) contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency (WUE); however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO(2), and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population. AD - Hatfield, JL; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Univ Florida, Agron Dep, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; USDA ARS, US Arid Land Agr Res Ctr, Maricopa, AZ 85138 USA; USDA, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA; Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; Univ Illinois, USDA ARS, Photosynth Res Unit, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; Cornell Univ, Dep Hort, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA AU - Hatfield, J. L. AU - Boote, K. J. AU - Kimball, B. A. AU - Ziska, L. H. AU - Izaurralde, R. C. AU - Ort, D. AU - Thomson, A. M. AU - Wolfe, D. C6 - NCA DA - Mar-Apr DO - 10.2134/agronj2010.0303 IS - 2 KW - air co2 enrichment; atmospheric carbon-dioxide; water-use efficiency; phaseolus-vulgaris l.; solanum-tuberosum l.; rottboellia-cochinchinensis interference; endosperm cell-division; high-temperature stress; soybean glycine-max; long-term exposure LA - English PY - 2011 SN - 1435-0645 SP - 351-370 ST - Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production T2 - Agronomy Journal TI - Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production VL - 103 ID - 13698 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hellmann, Jessica J. AU - Byers, James E. AU - Bierwagen, Britta G. AU - Dukes, Jeffrey S. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x IS - 3 KW - Climate change PY - 2008 SN - 1523-1739 SP - 534-543 ST - Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species T2 - Conservation Biology TI - Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species VL - 22 ID - 13726 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jump, Alistair S. AU - Mátyás, Csaba AU - Peñuelas, Josep C6 - NCA DA - Dec DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007 IS - 12 PY - 2009 SN - 0169-5347 SP - 694-701 ST - The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species T2 - Trends in Ecology & Evolution TI - The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species VL - 24 ID - 13982 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. lmportant differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts. AD - Kovats, RS; London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, PEHRU, London WC1E 7HT, England; London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, PEHRU, London WC1E 7HT, England; London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, PEHRU, London WC1E 7HT, England AU - Kovats, R. S. AU - Hajat, S. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843 KW - heat waves; early warning; mortality; august 2003; air-pollution; hospital admissions; united-states; excess mortality; elderly-people; french cities; risk-factors; hot weather; series data LA - English PY - 2008 SN - 0163-7525 SP - 41-55 ST - Heat stress and public health: A critical review T2 - Annual Review of Public Health TI - Heat stress and public health: A critical review VL - 29 ID - 14119 ER - TY - GOVDOC AU - Kunkel, K. E. AU - Stevens, L. E. AU - Stevens, S. E. AU - Sun, L. AU - Janssen, E. AU - Wuebbles, D. AU - Hilberg, S.D. AU - Timlin, M.S. AU - Stoecker, L. AU - Westcott, N.E. AU - Dobson, J.G. CY - Washington, D.C. PB - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service PY - 2013 SP - 103 TI - Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 3. Climate of the Midwest U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-3 UR - http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-3-Climate_of_the_Midwest_U.S.pdf ID - 14154 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lenihan, James M. AU - Bachelet, Dominique AU - Neilson, Ronald P. AU - Drapek, Raymond C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.01.006 IS - 1–2 KW - climate change biogeography carbon CO2 effect fire suppression MC1 DGVM PY - 2008 SN - 0921-8181 SP - 16-25 ST - Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2 T2 - Global and Planetary Change TI - Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2 VL - 64 ID - 14230 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lynn, Kathy AU - Daigle, John AU - Hoffman, Jennie AU - Lake, Frank AU - Michelle, Natalie AU - Ranco, Darren AU - Viles, Carson AU - Voggesser, Garrit AU - Williams, Paul C6 - NCA DA - October 2013 DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0736-1 IS - 3 LA - English PY - 2013 SN - 0165-0009 SP - 545-556 ST - The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods T2 - Climatic Change TI - The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods VL - 120 ID - 14326 ER - TY - JOUR AU - MacKay, M. AU - Seglenieks, F. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1007/s10584-012-0560-z IS - 1-2 PY - 2012 SN - 0165-0009 SP - 55-67 ST - On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change T2 - Climatic Change TI - On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change VL - 117 ID - 14339 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Maizlish, Neil AU - Woodcock, James AU - Co, Sean AU - Ostro, Bart AU - Fanai, Amir AU - Fairley, David C6 - NCA DA - 2013/04/01 DO - 10.2105/ajph.2012.300939 IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 0090-0036 SP - 703-709 ST - Health cobenefits and transportation-related reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the San Francisco Bay area T2 - American Journal of Public Health TI - Health cobenefits and transportation-related reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the San Francisco Bay area VL - 103 Y2 - 2013/08/06 ID - 14360 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Millerd, Frank C6 - NCA DO - 10.1007/s10584-010-9872-z IS - 3-4 KW - Climate change PY - 2011 SN - 0165-0009; 1573-1480 SP - 629-652 ST - The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping T2 - Climatic Change TI - The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping VL - 104 ID - 14541 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Palecki, M.A. AU - Changnon, S.A. AU - Kunkel, K.E. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1353:TNAIOT>2.3.CO;2 PY - 2001 SP - 1353-1368 ST - The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the midwestern United States: Learning from the lessons of 1995 T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the midwestern United States: Learning from the lessons of 1995 VL - 82 ID - 14919 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pan, Z. AU - Andrade, D. AU - Segal, M. AU - Wimberley, J. AU - McKinney, N. AU - Takle, E. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.11.013 IS - 5 PY - 2010 SN - 0304-3800 SP - 876-881 ST - Uncertainty in future soil carbon trends at a central US site under an ensemble of GCM scenario climates T2 - Ecological Modelling TI - Uncertainty in future soil carbon trends at a central US site under an ensemble of GCM scenario climates VL - 221 ID - 14928 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pan, Z. AU - Arritt, R.W. AU - Takle, E.S. AU - Gutowski, W.J., Jr. AU - Anderson, C.J. AU - Segal, M. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1029/2004GL020528 IS - 17 PY - 2004 SN - 0094-8276 SP - L17109 ST - Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole” T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole” VL - 31 ID - 14929 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pruski, F.F. AU - Nearing, M.A. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1029/2001WR000493 IS - 12 PY - 2002 SN - 1944-7973 SP - 34-1 - 34-11 ST - Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations T2 - Water Resources Research TI - Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations VL - 38 ID - 15068 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Pryor, S.C. CY - Bloomington, IN PB - Indiana University Press PY - 2013 SN - 978-0-253-00682-0 SP - 288 ST - Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation TI - Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation ID - 15070 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rosenzweig, C. AU - Tubiello, F.N. AU - Goldberg, R. AU - Mills, E. AU - Bloomfield, J. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0 PY - 2002 SP - 197-202 ST - Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change T2 - Global Environmental Change TI - Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change VL - 12 ID - 15226 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Staudinger, Michelle D. AU - Carter, Shawn L. AU - Cross, Molly S. AU - Dubois, Natalie S. AU - Duffy, J. Emmett AU - Enquist, Carolyn AU - Griffis, Roger AU - Hellmann, Jessica J. AU - Lawler, Joshua J. AU - O'Leary, John AU - Morrison, Scott A. AU - Sneddon, Lesley AU - Stein, Bruce A. AU - Thompson, Laura M. AU - Turner, Woody C6 - NCA DA - 2013/11/01 DO - 10.1890/120272 IS - 9 PY - 2013 SN - 1540-9295 SP - 465-473 ST - Biodiversity in a changing climate: A synthesis of current and projected trends in the US T2 - Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment TI - Biodiversity in a changing climate: A synthesis of current and projected trends in the US VL - 11 Y2 - 2014/03/04 ID - 15489 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Trumpickas, Justin AU - Shuter, Brian J. AU - Minns, Charles K. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1016/j.jglr.2009.04.005 IS - 3 KW - Climate change PY - 2009 SN - 03801330 SP - 454-463 ST - Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures VL - 35 ID - 15666 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Voggesser, Garrit AU - Lynn, Kathy AU - Daigle, John AU - Lake, Frank K. AU - Ranco, Darren C6 - NCA DA - October 2013 DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0733-4 ET - 2013/03/29 IS - 3 LA - English PY - 2013 SN - 0165-0009 SP - 615-626 ST - Cultural impacts to tribes from climate change influences on forests T2 - Climatic Change TI - Cultural impacts to tribes from climate change influences on forests VL - 120 ID - 15832 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Vose, J. M. AU - Peterson, D.L. AU - Patel-Weynand, T. CY - Portland, OR DA - December 2012 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station PY - 2012 SP - 265 ST - Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870 TI - Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870 UR - http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/FS_Climate1114%20opt.pdf ID - 15834 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Walthall, C. AU - Backlund, P. AU - Hatfield, J. AU - Lengnick, L. AU - Marshall, E. AU - Walsh, M. AU - Adkins, S. AU - Aillery, M. AU - Ainsworth, E.A. AU - Amman, C. AU - Anderson, C.J. AU - Bartomeus, I. AU - Baumgard, L.H. AU - Booker, F. AU - Bradley, B. AU - Blumenthal, D.M. AU - Bunce, J. AU - Burkey, K. AU - Dabney, S.M. AU - Delgado, J.A. AU - Dukes, J. AU - Funk, A. AU - Garrett, K. AU - Glenn, M. AU - Grantz, D.A. AU - Goodrich, D. AU - Hu, S. AU - Izaurralde, R.C. AU - Jones, R.A.C. AU - Kim, S-H. AU - Leaky, A.D.B. AU - Lewers, K. AU - Mader, T.L. AU - McClung, A. AU - Morgan, J. AU - Muth, D.J. AU - Nearing, M. AU - Oosterhuis, D.M. AU - Ort, D. AU - Parmesan, C. AU - Pettigrew, W.T. AU - Polley, W. AU - Rader, R. AU - Rice, C. AU - Rivington, M. AU - Rosskopf, E. AU - Salas, W.A. AU - Sollenberger, L.E. AU - Srygley, R. AU - Stöckle, C. AU - Takle, E.S. AU - Timlin, D. AU - White, J.W. AU - Winfree, R. AU - Wright-Morton, L. AU - Ziska, L.H. C6 - NCA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture PY - 2012 SN - USDA Technical Bulletin 1935 SP - 186 ST - Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation TI - Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation UR - http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/CC%20and%20Agriculture%20Report%20(02-04-2013)b.pdf ID - 15861 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Wang, J. AU - Bai, X. AU - Hu, H. AU - Clites, A. AU - Colton, M. AU - Lofgren, B. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1 PY - 2012 SN - 1520-0442 SP - 1318-1329 ST - Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010 T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010 VL - 25 ID - 15863 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Wu, F. AU - Bhatnagar, D. AU - Bui-Klimke, T. AU - Carbone, I. AU - Hellmich, R. AU - Munkvold, G. AU - Paul, P. AU - Payne, G. AU - Takle, E. C6 - NCA DO - 10.3920/WMJ2010.1246 IS - 1 PY - 2011 SN - 1875-0710 SP - 79-93 ST - Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize T2 - World Mycotoxin Journal TI - Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize VL - 4 ID - 16025 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A fundamental aspect of climate change is the potential shifts in flowering phenology and pollen initiation associated with milder winters and warmer seasonal air temperature. Earlier floral anthesis has been suggested, in turn, to have a role in human disease by increasing time of exposure to pollen that causes allergic rhinitis and related asthma. However, earlier floral initiation does not necessarily alter the temporal duration of the pollen season, and, to date, no consistent continental trend in pollen season length has been demonstrated. Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13-27 d at latitudes above similar to 44 degrees N since 1995. This is consistent with recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding enhanced warming as a function of latitude. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on public health. AU - Ziska, L. AU - Knowlton, K. AU - Rogers, C. AU - Dalan, D. AU - Tierney, N. AU - Elder, M. A. AU - Filley, W. AU - Shropshire, J. AU - Ford, L. B. AU - Hedberg, C. AU - Fleetwood, P. AU - Hovanky, K. T. AU - Kavanaugh, T. AU - Fulford, G. AU - Vrtis, R. F. AU - Patz, J. A. AU - Portnoy, J. AU - Coates, F. AU - Bielory, L. AU - Frenz, D. C6 - NCA DA - Mar 8 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1014107108 IS - 10 KW - aerobiology; allergies; global warming; ambrosia-artemisiifolia l.; climate-change; common ragweed; public-health; united-states; aeroallergens; allergy; urbanization; temperatures; counts LA - English PY - 2011 SN - 0027-8424 SP - 4248-4251 ST - Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America VL - 108 ID - 16081 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Fann, Neal AU - Nolte, Christopher G. AU - Dolwick, Patrick AU - Spero, Tanya L. AU - Curry Brown, Amanda AU - Phillips, Sharon AU - Anenberg, Susan DO - 10.1080/10962247.2014.996270 IS - 5 PY - 2015 SN - 1096-2247 2162-2906 SP - 570-580 ST - The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030 T2 - Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association TI - The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030 VL - 65 ID - 16106 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Drayna, Patrick AU - McLellan, Sandra L. AU - Simpson, Pippa AU - Li, Shun-Hwa AU - Gorelick, Marc H. DO - 10.1289/ehp.0901671 IS - 10 PY - 2010 SN - 0091-6765 SP - 1439-1443 ST - Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness VL - 118 ID - 16488 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bobb, Jennifer F. AU - Peng, Roger D. AU - Bell, Michelle L. AU - Dominici, Francesca DO - 10.1289/ehp.1307392 IS - 8 PY - 2014 SN - 0091-6765 SP - 811-816 ST - Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States VL - 122 ID - 17588 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Miraglia, M. AU - Marvin, H. J. P. AU - Kleter, G. A. AU - Battilani, P. AU - Brera, C. AU - Coni, E. AU - Cubadda, F. AU - Croci, L. AU - De Santis, B. AU - Dekkers, S. AU - Filippi, L. AU - Hutjes, R. W. A. AU - Noordam, M. Y. AU - Pisante, M. AU - Piva, G. AU - Prandini, A. AU - Toti, L. AU - van den Born, G. J. AU - Vespermann, A. DO - 10.1016/j.fct.2009.02.005 IS - 5 PY - 2009 SN - 02786915 SP - 1009-1021 ST - Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe T2 - Food and Chemical Toxicology TI - Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe VL - 47 ID - 17927 ER - TY - JOUR AB - An understanding of the spatial distribution of the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is a fundamental component in assessing human risk for Lyme disease in much of the United States. Although a county-level vector distribution map exists for the United States, its accuracy is limited by arbitrary categories of its reported presence. It is unknown whether reported positive areas can support established populations and whether negative areas are suitable for established populations. The steadily increasing range of I. scapularis in the United States suggests that all suitable habitats are not currently occupied. Therefore, we developed a spatially predictive logistic model for I. scapularis in the 48 conterminous states to improve the previous vector distribution map. We used ground-observed environmental data to predict the probability of established I. scapularis populations. The autologistic analysis showed that maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures as well as vapor pressure significantly contribute to population maintenance with an accuracy of 95% (p < 0.0001). A cutoff probability for habitat suitability was assessed by sensitivity analysis and was used to reclassify the previous distribution map. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data provides a robust suitability model that reveals essential environmental determinants of habitat suitability, predicts emerging areas of Lyme disease risk, and generates the future pattern of I. scapularis across the United States. AU - Brownstein, John S. AU - Holford, Theodore R. AU - Fish, Durland DB - PMC IS - 9 PY - 2003 SN - 0091-6765 SP - 1152-1157 ST - A climate-based model predicts the spatial distribution of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in the United States T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - A climate-based model predicts the spatial distribution of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in the United States UR - https://www.jstor.org/stable/3435502 VL - 111 ID - 18337 ER - TY - BOOK A3 - Crimmins, Allison A2 - Balbus, John A2 - Gamble, Janet L. A2 - Beard, Charles B. A2 - Bell, Jesse E. A2 - Dodgen, Daniel A2 - Eisen, Rebecca J. A2 - Fann, Neal A2 - Hawkins, Michelle D. A2 - Herring, Stephanie C. A2 - Jantarasami, Lesley A2 - Mills, David M. A2 - Saha, Shubhayu A2 - Sarofim, Marcus C. A2 - Trtanj, Juli A2 - Ziska, Lewis AU - USGCRP C4 - f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0R49NQX PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2016 SP - 312 ST - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment TI - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment ID - 19368 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Sarofim, Marcus C. AU - Saha, Shubhayu AU - Hawkins, Michelle D. AU - Mills, David M. AU - Hess, Jeremy AU - Horton, Radley AU - Kinney, Patrick AU - Schwartz, Joel AU - St. Juliana, Alexis C4 - 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0MG7MDX PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2016 SP - 43–68 ST - Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness T2 - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment TI - Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness ID - 19374 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Fann, Neal AU - Brennan, Terry AU - Dolwick, Patrick AU - Gamble, Janet L. AU - Ilacqua, Vito AU - Kolb, Laura AU - Nolte, Christopher G. AU - Spero, Tanya L. AU - Ziska, Lewis C4 - 5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0GQ6VP6 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2016 SP - 69–98 ST - Ch. 3: Air quality impacts T2 - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment TI - Ch. 3: Air quality impacts ID - 19375 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mallakpour, Iman AU - Villarini, Gabriele DA - 03//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2516 IS - 3 M3 - Letter PY - 2015 SN - 1758-678X SP - 250-254 ST - The changing nature of flooding across the central United States T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - The changing nature of flooding across the central United States VL - 5 ID - 19562 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency PY - 2016 SN - EPA 430-R-16-004 SP - 96 ST - Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. 4th edition TI - Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. 4th edition UR - https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/climate_indicators_2016.pdf ID - 20357 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence. AU - Vavrus, Steve AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Zarrin, Azar DO - 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1 IS - 1 KW - Inland seas/lakes,Lake effects,Snowfall,Regional models PY - 2013 SP - 148-165 ST - The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4 T2 - Monthly Weather Review TI - The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4 VL - 141 ID - 20862 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Feng, Zhe AU - Leung, L. Ruby AU - Hagos, Samson AU - Houze, Robert A. AU - Burleyson, Casey D. AU - Balaguru, Karthik DA - 11/11/online DO - 10.1038/ncomms13429 M3 - Article PY - 2016 SP - 13429 ST - More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall T2 - Nature Communications TI - More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall VL - 7 ID - 20864 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Frans, Chris AU - Istanbulluoglu, Erkan AU - Mishra, Vimal AU - Munoz-Arriola, Francisco AU - Lettenmaier, Dennis P. DO - 10.1002/grl.50262 IS - 6 KW - Climate Streamflow LULC 1632 Land cover change 1637 Regional climate change 1807 Climate impacts 1834 Human impacts 1833 Hydroclimatology PY - 2013 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 1104-1110 ST - Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin? T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin? VL - 40 ID - 20918 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change. AU - Ryberg, Karen R. AU - Lin, Wei AU - Vecchia, Aldo V. DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000775 IS - 1 PY - 2014 SP - 148-158 ST - Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States T2 - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering TI - Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States VL - 19 ID - 20935 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Slater, Louise J. AU - Singer, Michael Bliss AU - Kirchner, James W. DO - 10.1002/2014GL062482 IS - 2 KW - flood frequency morphodynamics climate change flood hazard trends streamflow hazards 1821 Floods 1825 Geomorphology: fluvial 1860 Streamflow 1872 Time series analysis 4321 Climate impact PY - 2015 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 370-376 ST - Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard VL - 42 ID - 20971 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Harding, Keith J. AU - Snyder, Peter K. AU - Liess, Stefan DO - 10.1002/2013JD019994 IS - 22 KW - dynamical downscaling CMIP5 Great Plains WRF extreme rainfall events model evaluation 0550 Model verification and validation 1626 Global climate models 1817 Extreme events 1854 Precipitation 3355 Regional modeling PY - 2013 SN - 2169-8996 SP - 12,522-12,536 ST - Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres TI - Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models VL - 118 ID - 21105 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bryan, A. M. AU - Steiner, A. L. AU - Posselt, D. J. DO - 10.1002/2014JD022316 IS - 3 KW - land-atmosphere interactions lake feedbacks regional climate modeling Great Lakes hydroclimate 1818 Evapotranspiration 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions 3355 Regional modeling PY - 2015 SN - 2169-8996 SP - 1044-1064 ST - Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres TI - Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate VL - 120 ID - 21106 ER - TY - JOUR AU - O'Reilly, Catherine M. AU - Sharma, Sapna AU - Gray, Derek K. AU - Hampton, Stephanie E. AU - Read, Jordan S. AU - Rowley, Rex J. AU - Schneider, Philipp AU - Lenters, John D. AU - McIntyre, Peter B. AU - Kraemer, Benjamin M. AU - Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A. AU - Straile, Dietmar AU - Dong, Bo AU - Adrian, Rita AU - Allan, Mathew G. AU - Anneville, Orlane AU - Arvola, Lauri AU - Austin, Jay AU - Bailey, John L. AU - Baron, Jill S. AU - Brookes, Justin D. AU - de Eyto, Elvira AU - Dokulil, Martin T. AU - Hamilton, David P. AU - Havens, Karl AU - Hetherington, Amy L. AU - Higgins, Scott N. AU - Hook, Simon AU - Izmest'eva, Lyubov R. AU - Joehnk, Klaus D. AU - Kangur, Kulli AU - Kasprzak, Peter AU - Kumagai, Michio AU - Kuusisto, Esko AU - Leshkevich, George AU - Livingstone, David M. AU - MacIntyre, Sally AU - May, Linda AU - Melack, John M. AU - Mueller-Navarra, Doerthe C. AU - Naumenko, Mikhail AU - Noges, Peeter AU - Noges, Tiina AU - North, Ryan P. AU - Plisnier, Pierre-Denis AU - Rigosi, Anna AU - Rimmer, Alon AU - Rogora, Michela AU - Rudstam, Lars G. AU - Rusak, James A. AU - Salmaso, Nico AU - Samal, Nihar R. AU - Schindler, Daniel E. AU - Schladow, S. Geoffrey AU - Schmid, Martin AU - Schmidt, Silke R. AU - Silow, Eugene AU - Soylu, M. Evren AU - Teubner, Katrin AU - Verburg, Piet AU - Voutilainen, Ari AU - Watkinson, Andrew AU - Williamson, Craig E. AU - Zhang, Guoqing DO - 10.1002/2015GL066235 IS - 24 KW - lakes climate change temperature 0746 Lakes 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change 1807 Climate impacts 4942 Limnology PY - 2015 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 10,773-10,781 ST - Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe VL - 42 ID - 21107 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Magnuson, J. J. AU - Webster, K. E. AU - Assel, R. A. AU - Bowser, C. J. AU - Dillon, P. J. AU - Eaton, J. G. AU - Evans, H. E. AU - Fee, E. J. AU - Hall, R. I. AU - Mortsch, L. R. AU - Schindler, D. W. AU - Quinn, F. H. DO - 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19970630)11:8<825::AID-HYP509>3.0.CO;2-G IS - 8 KW - Laurentian Great Lakes Precambrian Shield climate change aquatic systems north temperate glacial lakes hydrology paleoclimates lake ice water level physical limnology chemical limnology phytoplankton zooplankton fish terrestrial-aquatic linkages interaction with other stresses heterogeneity in response biogeochemistry PY - 1997 SN - 1099-1085 SP - 825-871 ST - Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian shield region T2 - Hydrological Processes TI - Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian shield region VL - 11 ID - 21108 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mishra, Vimal AU - Cherkauer, Keith A. AU - Niyogi, Dev AU - Lei, Ming AU - Pijanowski, Bryan C. AU - Ray, Deepak K. AU - Bowling, Laura C. AU - Yang, Guoxiang DO - 10.1002/joc.2095 IS - 13 KW - Land cover change land-use change climate change land surface response sensitivity analysis water and energy cycle deforestation/reforestation urbanization VIC IPCC PY - 2010 SN - 1097-0088 SP - 2025-2044 ST - A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States T2 - International Journal of Climatology TI - A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States VL - 30 ID - 21109 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Zhong, Yafang AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Vavrus, Stephen J. AU - Foster, Michael J. DO - 10.1002/lno.10331 IS - 5 PY - 2016 SN - 1939-5590 SP - 1762-1786 ST - Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers T2 - Limnology and Oceanography TI - Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers VL - 61 ID - 21110 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cai, Ximing AU - Zhang, Xiao AU - Noël, Paul H. AU - Shafiee-Jood, Majid DO - 10.1002/wat2.1089 IS - 5 PY - 2015 SN - 2049-1948 SP - 439-455 ST - Impacts of climate change on agricultural water management: A review T2 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water TI - Impacts of climate change on agricultural water management: A review VL - 2 ID - 21111 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers’ experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers. AU - Anhalt-Depies, Christine M. AU - Knoot, Tricia Gorby AU - Rissman, Adena R. AU - Sharp, Anthony K. AU - Martin, Karl J. DA - May 01 DO - 10.1007/s00267-016-0673-7 IS - 5 M3 - journal article PY - 2016 SN - 1432-1009 SP - 987-997 ST - Understanding climate adaptation on public lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for monitoring and tracking progress T2 - Environmental Management TI - Understanding climate adaptation on public lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for monitoring and tracking progress VL - 57 ID - 21112 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Downscaled climate data are available at fine spatial scales making them desirable to local climate change practitioners. However, without a description of their uncertainty, practitioners cannot know if they provide quality information. We pose that part of the foundation for the description of uncertainty is an assessment of the ability of the underlying climate model to represent the meteorological or weather-scale processes. Here, we demonstrate an assessment of precipitation processes for the Great Lakes region using the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) projections. A major weakness of the underlying models is their inability to simulate the effects of the Great Lakes, which is an important issue for most global climate models. There is also uncertainty among the models in the timing of transition between dominant precipitation processes going from the warm to cool season and vice versa. In addition, warm-season convective precipitation processes very greatly among the models. From the assessment, we discuss how process-based uncertainties in the models are inherited by the downscaled projections and how bias correction increases uncertainty in cases where precipitation processes are not well represented. Implications of these findings are presented for three regional examples: lake-effect snow, the spring seasonal transition, and summertime lake-effect precipitation. AU - Briley, Laura J. AU - Ashley, Walker S. AU - Rood, Richard B. AU - Krmenec, Andrew DA - February 01 DO - 10.1007/s00704-015-1652-2 IS - 3 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1434-4483 SP - 643-654 ST - The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology TI - The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making VL - 127 ID - 21113 ER - TY - JOUR AB - This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%). AU - Uejio, Christopher K. AU - Christenson, Megan AU - Moran, Colleen AU - Gorelick, Mark DA - June 01 DO - 10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9 IS - 4 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1435-0157 SP - 969-979 ST - Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater T2 - Hydrogeology Journal TI - Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater VL - 25 ID - 21114 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Excess nitrogen (N) impairs inland water quality and creates hypoxia in coastal ecosystems. Agriculture is the primary source of N; agricultural management and hydrology together control aquatic ecosystem N loading. Future N loading will be determined by how agriculture and hydrology intersect with climate change, yet the interactions between changing climate and water quality remain poorly understood. Here, we show that changing precipitation patterns, resulting from climate change, interact with agricultural land use to deteriorate water quality. We focus on the 2012–2013 Midwestern U.S. drought as a “natural experiment”. The transition from drought conditions in 2012 to a wet spring in 2013 was abrupt; the media dubbed this “weather whiplash”. We use recent (2010–2015) and historical data (1950–2015) to connect weather whiplash (drought-to-flood transitions) to increases in riverine N loads and concentrations. The drought likely created highly N-enriched soils; this excess N mobilized during heavy spring rains (2013), resulting in a 34% increase (10.5 vs. 7.8 mg N L−1) in the flow-weighted mean annual nitrate concentration compared to recent years. Furthermore, we show that climate change will likely intensify weather whiplash. Increased weather whiplash will, in part, increase the frequency of riverine N exceeding E.P.A. drinking water standards. Thus, our observations suggest increased climatic variation will amplify negative trends in water quality in a region already grappling with severe impairments. AU - Loecke, Terrance D. AU - Burgin, Amy J. AU - Riveros-Iregui, Diego A. AU - Ward, Adam S. AU - Thomas, Steven A. AU - Davis, Caroline A. AU - Clair, Martin A. St. DA - March 01 DO - 10.1007/s10533-017-0315-z IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1573-515X SP - 7-15 ST - Weather whiplash in agricultural regions drives deterioration of water quality T2 - Biogeochemistry TI - Weather whiplash in agricultural regions drives deterioration of water quality VL - 133 ID - 21115 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The Yakima River Basin (Basin) in south-central Washington is a prime example of a place where competing water uses, coupled with over-allocation of water resources, have presented water managers with the challenge of meeting current demand, anticipating future demand, and preparing for potential impacts of climate change. We took a decision analysis approach that gathered diverse stakeholders to discuss their concerns pertaining to climate change effects on the Basin and future goals that were collectively important. One main focus was centered on how climate change may influence future salmon populations. Salmon have played a prominent role in the cultures of Basin communities, especially for tribal communities that have social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic ties to them. Stakeholders identified the need for a better understanding on how the cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic aspects of the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation could be affected by changes in salmon populations. In an attempt to understand the complexities of these potential effects, this paper proposes a conceptual model which 1) identifies cultural values and components and the interactions between those components that could influence tribal well-being, and 2) shows how federal natural resource managers could incorporate intangible tribal cultural components into decision-making processes by understanding important components of tribal well-being. Future work includes defining the parameterization of the cultural components in order for the conceptual model to be incorporated with biophysical resource models for scenario simulations. AU - Montag, J. M. AU - Swan, K. AU - Jenni, K. AU - Nieman, T. AU - Hatten, J. AU - Mesa, M. AU - Graves, D. AU - Voss, F. AU - Mastin, M. AU - Hardiman, J. AU - Maule, A. DA - May 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-1001-3 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2014 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 385-398 ST - Climate change and Yakama Nation tribal well-being T2 - Climatic Change TI - Climate change and Yakama Nation tribal well-being VL - 124 ID - 21116 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems. AU - Mason, Lacey A. AU - Riseng, Catherine M. AU - Gronewold, Andrew D. AU - Rutherford, Edward S. AU - Wang, Jia AU - Clites, Anne AU - Smith, Sigrid D. P. AU - McIntyre, Peter B. DA - September 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2016 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 71-83 ST - Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes T2 - Climatic Change TI - Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes VL - 138 ID - 21117 ER - TY - JOUR AB - While there has been considerable focus on understanding barriers to climate information use associated with the character of climate knowledge, individuals’ negative perception of its usability and constraints of decision-contexts, less attention has been paid to understanding how different scales of decision-making influence information use. In this study, we explore how water and resource managers’ scales of decision-making and scope of decision responsibilities influence climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information remains low. Reasons include (a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky, (b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, (c) problems with the information itself, and (d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that (1) scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have willingness and authority to use climate information; (2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g., state), it is unlikely that climate information use will accelerate significantly; and (3) the trend towards characterizing climate specific actions within a broader concept of sustainability practices, or “adaptation by stealth,” should be supported as a component of the climate adaptation repertoire. AU - Rasmussen, Laura Vang AU - Kirchhoff, Christine J. AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen DA - February 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-016-1857-0 IS - 3 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 451-465 ST - Adaptation by stealth: Climate information use in the Great Lakes region across scales T2 - Climatic Change TI - Adaptation by stealth: Climate information use in the Great Lakes region across scales VL - 140 ID - 21118 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating project-level adaptation plans from a suite of forest management projects developed through the Climate Change Response Framework. We used quantitative content analysis to evaluate 44 adaptation-planning documents developed through the Framework’s Adaptation Workbook within two ecoregional provinces of the Midwest. This approach was used to assess the components of adaptation planning, including the resources that adaptation actions targeted within planning documents, the climate changes and impacts of concern, and the adaptation strategies managers identified. Analyses of adaptation plans show that the most frequent climate changes and impacts of concern included alterations in the amount and timing of precipitation, increased vegetation moisture stress, and forest pest and pathogen impacts. Individual projects identified a diversity of adaptation options, rather than focusing singly on actions that aimed to resist climate impacts, enhance resilience, or transition systems. Multivariate analyses indicate that ecoregion and land ownership influenced adaptation planning, while the type of resources and the climate change impacts managers were concerned with were significantly correlated with the adaptation strategies selected during planning. This finding reinforces the idea that one-size-fits-all guidance on adaptation will be insufficient for land managers. Perceptions of relevant climate impacts differ based on regional and ownership contexts, which naturally leads to differences in preferred adaptation actions. AU - Ontl, Todd A. AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Brandt, Leslie A. AU - Butler, Patricia R. AU - D’Amato, Anthony W. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Janowiak, Maria K. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle DO - 10.1007/s10584-017-1983-3 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2018 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 75-88 ST - Adaptation pathways: Ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management T2 - Climatic Change TI - Adaptation pathways: Ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management VL - 146 ID - 21119 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States. AU - Iverson, Louis R. AU - Thompson, Frank R. AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Dijak, William D. AU - Fraser, Jacob AU - Wang, Wen J. AU - Hanberry, Brice AU - He, Hong AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Butler, Patricia AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Swanston, Christopher DA - July 01 DO - 10.1007/s10980-016-0404-8 IS - 7 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1572-9761 SP - 1327-1346 ST - Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: Results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models T2 - Landscape Ecology TI - Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: Results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models VL - 32 ID - 21120 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus (Linnaeus) is both an invasive non-native species in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America and an imperiled species in much of its native range in North America and Europe. To compare and contrast how understanding of population ecology is useful for control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in Europe, we review current understanding of the population ecology of the sea lamprey in its native and introduced range. Some attributes of sea lamprey population ecology are particularly useful for both control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in the native range. First, traps within fish ladders are beneficial for removing sea lampreys in Great Lakes streams and passing sea lampreys in the native range. Second, attractants and repellants are suitable for luring sea lampreys into traps for control in the Great Lakes and guiding sea lamprey passage for conservation in the native range. Third, assessment methods used for targeting sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes are useful for targeting habitat protection in the native range. Last, assessment methods used to quantify numbers of all life stages of sea lampreys would be appropriate for measuring success of control in the Great Lakes and success of conservation in the native range. AU - Hansen, Michael J. AU - Madenjian, Charles P. AU - Slade, Jeffrey W. AU - Steeves, Todd B. AU - Almeida, Pedro R. AU - Quintella, Bernardo R. DA - September 01 DO - 10.1007/s11160-016-9440-3 IS - 3 M3 - journal article PY - 2016 SN - 1573-5184 SP - 509-535 ST - Population ecology of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) as an invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and an imperiled species in Europe T2 - Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries TI - Population ecology of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) as an invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and an imperiled species in Europe VL - 26 ID - 21121 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes. AU - Collingsworth, Paris D. AU - Bunnell, David B. AU - Murray, Michael W. AU - Kao, Yu-Chun AU - Feiner, Zachary S. AU - Claramunt, Randall M. AU - Lofgren, Brent M. AU - Höök, Tomas O. AU - Ludsin, Stuart A. DA - June 01 DO - 10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 IS - 2 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1573-5184 SP - 363-391 ST - Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America T2 - Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries TI - Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America VL - 27 ID - 21122 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Sparks, Donald L. AU - Delgado, Jorge A. AU - Nearing, Mark A. AU - Rice, Charles W. C4 - 675ce62c-a460-4f53-9e1f-47d1fa5c7a10 DO - 10.1016/B978-0-12-407685-3.00002-5 KW - Adaptation Climate change Drought Extreme events Conservation practices Mitigation Soil quality Water quality PB - Academic Press PY - 2013 SN - 0065-2113 SP - 47-115 ST - Conservation practices for climate change adaptation T2 - Advances in Agronomy TI - Conservation practices for climate change adaptation VL - 121 ID - 21123 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sheridan, Scott C. AU - Dixon, P. Grady DO - 10.1016/j.ancene.2016.10.001 KW - Heat mortality Climate change Heat wave Distributed lag nonlinear model PY - 2017 SN - 2213-3054 SP - 61-73 ST - Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability and adaptation to heat across the United States T2 - Anthropocene TI - Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability and adaptation to heat across the United States VL - 20 ID - 21125 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Forrest, Jessica R. K. DA - 2016/10/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.002 PY - 2016 SN - 2214-5745 SP - 49-54 ST - Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change T2 - Current Opinion in Insect Science TI - Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change VL - 17 ID - 21126 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hellmann, Jessica J. AU - Grundel, Ralph AU - Hoving, Chris AU - Schuurman, Gregor W. DA - 2016/10/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.cois.2016.08.005 PY - 2016 SN - 2214-5745 SP - 92-97 ST - A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change T2 - Current Opinion in Insect Science TI - A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change VL - 17 ID - 21127 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Haigh, Tonya AU - Takle, Eugene AU - Andresen, Jeffrey AU - Widhalm, Melissa AU - Carlton, J. Stuart AU - Angel, Jim DA - 2015/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2015.01.004 KW - Decision calendar Maps Agriculture Climate tools PY - 2015 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 20-30 ST - Mapping the decision points and climate information use of agricultural producers across the U.S. corn belt T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Mapping the decision points and climate information use of agricultural producers across the U.S. corn belt VL - 7 ID - 21128 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kalafatis, Scott E. AU - Grace, Ashlee AU - Gibbons, Elizabeth DA - 2015/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2015.04.003 KW - Boundary organizations Boundary chains Usable science Mainstreaming climate change adaptation Policy entrepreneurs PY - 2015 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 30-40 ST - Making climate science accessible in Toledo: The linked boundary chain approach T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Making climate science accessible in Toledo: The linked boundary chain approach VL - 9 ID - 21129 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Briley, Laura AU - Brown, Daniel AU - Kalafatis, Scott E. DA - 2015/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2015.04.004 KW - Climate change adaptation Boundary organization Information usability Decision support PY - 2015 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 41-49 ST - Overcoming barriers during the co-production of climate information for decision-making T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Overcoming barriers during the co-production of climate information for decision-making VL - 9 ID - 21130 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Phadke, Roopali AU - Manning, Christie AU - Burlager, Samantha DA - 2015/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.005 KW - Boundary organizations Citizen participation Climate adaptation Environmental justice Public Engagement Community-based research PY - 2015 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 62-76 ST - Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning VL - 9 ID - 21131 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ma, Wu AU - Liang, Jingjing AU - Cumming, Jonathan R. AU - Lee, Eungul AU - Welsh, Amy B. AU - Watson, James V. AU - Zhou, Mo DA - 7/24/ DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.03.021 KW - Climate change Fire regime Matrix growth model Forest dynamics Monte Carlo simulations Appalachians PY - 2016 SN - 0304-3800 SP - 28-41 ST - Fundamental shifts of central hardwood forests under climate change T2 - Ecological Modelling TI - Fundamental shifts of central hardwood forests under climate change VL - 332 ID - 21132 ER - TY - JOUR AB - OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99(th) percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk. AU - Gronlund, Carina J. AU - Berrocal, Veronica J. AU - White-Newsome, Jalonne L. AU - Conlon, Kathryn C. AU - O'Neill, Marie S. DA - 11/25 DB - PMC DO - 10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042 PY - 2015 SN - 0013-9351 1096-0953 SP - 449-461 ST - Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007 T2 - Environmental Research TI - Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007 VL - 136 ID - 21133 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hondula, David M. AU - Davis, Robert E. AU - Saha, Michael V. AU - Wegner, Carleigh R. AU - Veazey, Lindsay M. DA - 2015/04/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.envres.2015.02.033 KW - Heat Mortality Spatial Vulnerability Urban PY - 2015 SN - 0013-9351 SP - 439-452 ST - Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities T2 - Environmental Research TI - Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities VL - 138 ID - 21134 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Derby Lewis, Abigail AU - Fahey, Robert AU - Scott, Lydia AU - Darling, Lindsay AU - Swanston, Chris DA - 2016/12/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.005 KW - Vulnerability Climate change Adaptive capacity Urban forest Inventory Chicago PY - 2016 SN - 1462-9011 SP - 393-402 ST - A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change T2 - Environmental Science & Policy TI - A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change VL - 66 ID - 21135 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Worrall, James J. AU - Rehfeldt, Gerald E. AU - Hamann, Andreas AU - Hogg, Edward H. AU - Marchetti, Suzanne B. AU - Michaelian, Michael AU - Gray, Laura K. DA - 2013/07/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.033 KW - Decline Dieback Die-off Drought Climate envelope Climatic niche PY - 2013 SN - 0378-1127 SP - 35-51 ST - Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate T2 - Forest Ecology and Management TI - Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate VL - 299 ID - 21136 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Fisichelli, Nicholas A. AU - Abella, Scott R. AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Krist, Frank J. DA - 2014/09/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.04.033 KW - Climate change adaptation Eastern United States Forest health Nonnative species Vulnerability Assessment PY - 2014 SN - 0378-1127 SP - 31-39 ST - Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern U.S. national park forests T2 - Forest Ecology and Management TI - Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern U.S. national park forests VL - 327 ID - 21137 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Vose, James M. AU - Miniat, Chelcy Ford AU - Luce, Charles H. AU - Asbjornsen, Heidi AU - Caldwell, Peter V. AU - Campbell, John L. AU - Grant, Gordon E. AU - Isaak, Daniel J. AU - Loheide Ii, Steven P. AU - Sun, Ge DA - 11/15/ DO - 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.03.025 KW - Transpiration Streamflow Water balance Water quality Climate change Management options PY - 2016 SN - 0378-1127 SP - 335-345 ST - Ecohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States T2 - Forest Ecology and Management TI - Ecohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States VL - 380 ID - 21138 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Heltberg, Rasmus AU - Siegel, Paul Bennett AU - Jorgensen, Steen Lau DA - 2009/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.003 IS - 1 KW - Adaptation Climate change Social risk management Vulnerability No-regrets PY - 2009 SN - 0959-3780 SP - 89-99 ST - Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a "no-regrets" approach T2 - Global Environmental Change TI - Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a "no-regrets" approach VL - 19 ID - 21139 ER - TY - JOUR AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P. AU - Riahi, Keywan AU - Moss, Richard AU - Edmonds, Jae AU - Thomson, Allison AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa AU - Kram, Tom AU - Berkhout, Frans AU - Swart, Rob AU - Janetos, Anthony AU - Rose, Steven K. AU - Arnell, Nigel DA - 2012/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002 IS - 1 KW - Climate change Scenario analysis Integrated assessment Mitigation Adaptation Climate impacts PY - 2012 SN - 0959-3780 SP - 21-35 ST - A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities T2 - Global Environmental Change TI - A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities VL - 22 ID - 21140 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mishra, Vimal AU - Cherkauer, Keith A. AU - Bowling, Laura C. DA - 2011/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.11.003 IS - 3 KW - lakes VIC model climate variability climate change heat storage ice cover feedback PY - 2011 SN - 0921-8181 SP - 155-172 ST - Changing thermal dynamics of lakes in the Great Lakes region: Role of ice cover feedbacks T2 - Global and Planetary Change TI - Changing thermal dynamics of lakes in the Great Lakes region: Role of ice cover feedbacks VL - 75 ID - 21141 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rittenhouse, Chadwick D. AU - Rissman, Adena R. DA - 2/1/ DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 KW - Climate change impacts Forestry Adaptation Multiple stressors PY - 2015 SN - 0301-4797 SP - 157-167 ST - Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests T2 - Journal of Environmental Management TI - Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests VL - 149 ID - 21142 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Dolan, David M. AU - Chapra, Steven C. DA - 2012/12/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jglr.2012.10.001 IS - 4 KW - Phosphorus Loadings Eutrophication Tributary Municipal Industrial PY - 2012 SN - 0380-1330 SP - 730-740 ST - Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994–2008) T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994–2008) VL - 38 ID - 21143 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kao, Yu-Chun AU - Madenjian, Charles P. AU - Bunnell, David B. AU - Lofgren, Brent M. AU - Perroud, Marjorie DA - 2015/06/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jglr.2015.03.012 IS - 2 KW - Bioenergetics model Climate change Great Lakes Yellow perch Lake whitefish Thermal guild PY - 2015 SN - 0380-1330 SP - 423-435 ST - Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron VL - 41 ID - 21144 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mao, Dazhi AU - Cherkauer, Keith A. DA - 2009/07/30/ DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.016 IS - 1 KW - Land-use change Hydrologic responses Evapotranspiration Runoff PY - 2009 SN - 0022-1694 SP - 71-82 ST - Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region T2 - Journal of Hydrology TI - Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region VL - 374 ID - 21145 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Whitfield, Geoffrey P. AU - Meehan, Leslie A. AU - Maizlish, Neil AU - Wendel, Arthur M. DA - 2017/06/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jth.2016.06.009 PY - 2017 SN - 2214-1405 SP - 172-181 ST - The integrated transport and health impact modeling tool in Nashville, Tennessee, USA: Implementation steps and lessons learned T2 - Journal of Transport & Health TI - The integrated transport and health impact modeling tool in Nashville, Tennessee, USA: Implementation steps and lessons learned VL - 5 ID - 21146 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hamer, Sarah A. AU - Hickling, Graham J. AU - Walker, Edward D. AU - Tsao, Jean I. DA - 2014/10/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.meegid.2014.06.003 KW - American Midwest PY - 2014 SN - 1567-1348 SP - 531-542 ST - Increased diversity of zoonotic pathogens and Borrelia burgdorferi strains in established versus incipient Ixodes scapularis populations across the Midwestern United States T2 - Infection, Genetics and Evolution TI - Increased diversity of zoonotic pathogens and Borrelia burgdorferi strains in established versus incipient Ixodes scapularis populations across the Midwestern United States VL - 27 ID - 21147 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Anderson, Pamela K. AU - Cunningham, Andrew A. AU - Patel, Nikkita G. AU - Morales, Francisco J. AU - Epstein, Paul R. AU - Daszak, Peter DA - 2004/10/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021 IS - 10 PY - 2004 SN - 0169-5347 SP - 535-544 ST - Emerging infectious diseases of plants: Pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers T2 - Trends in Ecology & Evolution TI - Emerging infectious diseases of plants: Pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers VL - 19 ID - 21148 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Vavrus, Stephen J. AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Lorenz, David J. DA - 2015/12/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.005 IS - Part B KW - Climate Model Uncertainty CMIP Downscaled Extremes PY - 2015 SN - 2212-0947 SP - 10-28 ST - Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events T2 - Weather and Climate Extremes TI - Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events VL - 10 ID - 21149 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Grigal, David F. DA - 2000/11/01/ DO - 10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00395-9 IS - 1 KW - Soil productivity Forest harvest Nutrient depletion Soil physical properties PY - 2000 SN - 0378-1127 SP - 167-185 ST - Effects of extensive forest management on soil productivity T2 - Forest Ecology and Management TI - Effects of extensive forest management on soil productivity VL - 138 ID - 21150 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Scott, Robert W. AU - Huff, Floyd A. DA - 1996/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/S0380-1330(96)71006-7 IS - 4 KW - Great Lakes precipitation temperature clouds vapor pressure climate impacts PY - 1996 SN - 0380-1330 SP - 845-863 ST - Impacts of the Great Lakes on regional climate conditions T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Impacts of the Great Lakes on regional climate conditions VL - 22 ID - 21151 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Petersen, Brian AU - Hall, Kimberly R. AU - Kahl, Katherine AU - Doran, Patrick J. DA - 2013/12/01 DO - 10.1017/S1466046613000446 IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 1466-0466 SP - 377-392 ST - Research articles: In their own words: Perceptions of climate change adaptation from the Great Lakes region's resource management community T2 - Environmental Practice TI - Research articles: In their own words: Perceptions of climate change adaptation from the Great Lakes region's resource management community VL - 15 ID - 21152 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Garbrecht, Jurgen D. AU - Steiner, Jean L. AU - Cox, Craig A. DO - 10.1029/2007EO110016 IS - 11 KW - 9815 Notices and announcements PY - 2007 SN - 2324-9250 SP - 136-136 ST - Climate change impacts on soil and water conservation T2 - Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union TI - Climate change impacts on soil and water conservation VL - 88 ID - 21154 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hanrahan, Janel L. AU - Kravtsov, Sergey V. AU - Roebber, Paul J. DO - 10.1029/2009GL041707 IS - 1 KW - Great Lakes water levels climate variability 1616 Climate variability 1630 Impacts of global change 1807 Climate impacts 1803 Anthropogenic effects 9345 Geographic Location: Large bodies of water (e.g., lakes and inland seas) PY - 2010 SN - 1944-8007 SP - L01701 ST - Connecting past and present climate variability to the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Connecting past and present climate variability to the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron VL - 37 ID - 21155 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gronewold, Andrew D. AU - Clites, Anne H. AU - Bruxer, Jacob AU - Kompoltowicz, Keith W. AU - Smith, Joeseph P. AU - Hunter, Timothy S. AU - Wong, Cary DO - 10.1029/2015EO026023 PY - 2015 SP - 14-17 ST - Water Levels Surge on Great Lakes T2 - Eos, Earth & Space Science News TI - Water Levels Surge on Great Lakes VL - 61 ID - 21156 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bebber, Daniel P. AU - Ramotowski, Mark A. T. AU - Gurr, Sarah J. DA - 11//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate1990 IS - 11 M3 - Letter PY - 2013 SN - 1758-678X SP - 985-988 ST - Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world VL - 3 ID - 21157 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pearson, Richard G. AU - Stanton, Jessica C. AU - Shoemaker, Kevin T. AU - Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E. AU - Ersts, Peter J. AU - Horning, Ned AU - Fordham, Damien A. AU - Raxworthy, Christopher J. AU - Ryu, Hae Yeong AU - McNees, Jason AU - Akcakaya, H. Resit DA - 03//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2113 IS - 3 M3 - Letter PY - 2014 SN - 1758-678X SP - 217-221 ST - Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change VL - 4 ID - 21158 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Deryng, Delphine AU - Elliott, Joshua AU - Folberth, Christian AU - Muller, Christoph AU - Pugh, Thomas A. M. AU - Boote, Kenneth J. AU - Conway, Declan AU - Ruane, Alex C. AU - Gerten, Dieter AU - Jones, James W. AU - Khabarov, Nikolay AU - Olin, Stefan AU - Schaphoff, Sibyll AU - Schmid, Erwin AU - Yang, Hong AU - Rosenzweig, Cynthia DA - 08//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate2995 IS - 8 M3 - Letter PY - 2016 SN - 1758-678X SP - 786-790 ST - Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity VL - 6 ID - 21159 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action. AU - Woodruff, Sierra C. AU - Stults, Missy DA - 08//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate3012 IS - 8 M3 - Article PY - 2016 SN - 1758-678X SP - 796-802 ST - Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans VL - 6 ID - 21160 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. AU - Seidl, Rupert AU - Thom, Dominik AU - Kautz, Markus AU - Martin-Benito, Dario AU - Peltoniemi, Mikko AU - Vacchiano, Giorgio AU - Wild, Jan AU - Ascoli, Davide AU - Petr, Michal AU - Honkaniemi, Juha AU - Lexer, Manfred J. AU - Trotsiuk, Volodymyr AU - Mairota, Paola AU - Svoboda, Miroslav AU - Fabrika, Marek AU - Nagel, Thomas A. AU - Reyer, Christopher P. O. DA - 06//print DO - 10.1038/nclimate3303 IS - 6 M3 - Review PY - 2017 SN - 1758-678X SP - 395-402 ST - Forest disturbances under climate change T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Forest disturbances under climate change VL - 7 ID - 21161 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Schauberger, Bernhard AU - Archontoulis, Sotirios AU - Arneth, Almut AU - Balkovic, Juraj AU - Ciais, Philippe AU - Deryng, Delphine AU - Elliott, Joshua AU - Folberth, Christian AU - Khabarov, Nikolay AU - Müller, Christoph AU - Pugh, Thomas A. M. AU - Rolinski, Susanne AU - Schaphoff, Sibyll AU - Schmid, Erwin AU - Wang, Xuhui AU - Schlenker, Wolfram AU - Frieler, Katja DA - 01/19/online DO - 10.1038/ncomms13931 M3 - Article PY - 2017 SP - 13931 ST - Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models T2 - Nature Communications TI - Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models VL - 8 ID - 21163 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences. AU - Mayor, Stephen J. AU - Guralnick, Robert P. AU - Tingley, Morgan W. AU - Otegui, Javier AU - Withey, John C. AU - Elmendorf, Sarah C. AU - Andrew, Margaret E. AU - Leyk, Stefan AU - Pearse, Ian S. AU - Schneider, David C. DA - 2017/05/15 DO - 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z IS - 1 PY - 2017 SN - 2045-2322 SP - 1902 ST - Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds VL - 7 ID - 21164 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Rising temperatures and increasing drought severity linked to global climate change are negatively impacting forest growth and function at the equatorial range edge of species distributions. Rapid dieback and range retractions are predicted to occur in many areas as temperatures continue to rise. Despite widespread negative impacts at the ecosystem level, equatorial range edges are not well studied, and their responses to climate change are poorly understood. Effective monitoring of tree responses to climate in these regions is of critical importance in order to predict and manage threats to populations. Remote sensing of impacts on forests can be combined with ground-based assessment of environmental and ecological changes to identify populations most at risk. Modelling may be useful as a 'first-filter' to identify populations of concern but, together with many remote sensing methods, often lacks adequate resolution for application at the range edge. A multidisciplinary approach, combining remote observation with targeted ground-based monitoring of local susceptible and resistant populations, is therefore required. Once at-risk regions have been identified, management can be adapted to reduce immediate risks in priority populations, and promote long-term adaptation to change. However, management to protect forest ecosystem function may be preferable where the maintenance of historical species assemblages is no longer viable. AU - Jump, Alistair S. AU - Cavin, Liam AU - Hunter, Peter D. DO - 10.1039/B923773A IS - 10 M3 - 10.1039/B923773A PY - 2010 SN - 1464-0325 SP - 1791-1798 ST - Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees T2 - Journal of Environmental Monitoring TI - Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees VL - 12 ID - 21165 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. AU - Maclean, Ilya M. D. AU - Wilson, Robert J. DA - July 26, 2011 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1017352108 IS - 30 PY - 2011 SP - 12337-12342 ST - Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk VL - 108 ID - 21166 ER - TY - JOUR AB - With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments. AU - Allan, J. David AU - McIntyre, Peter B. AU - Smith, Sigrid D. P. AU - Halpern, Benjamin S. AU - Boyer, Gregory L. AU - Buchsbaum, Andy AU - Burton, G. A. AU - Campbell, Linda M. AU - Chadderton, W. Lindsay AU - Ciborowski, Jan J. H. AU - Doran, Patrick J. AU - Eder, Tim AU - Infante, Dana M. AU - Johnson, Lucinda B. AU - Joseph, Christine A. AU - Marino, Adrienne L. AU - Prusevich, Alexander AU - Read, Jennifer G. AU - Rose, Joan B. AU - Rutherford, Edward S. AU - Sowa, Scott P. AU - Steinman, Alan D. DA - January 2, 2013 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1213841110 IS - 1 PY - 2013 SP - 372-377 ST - Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness VL - 110 ID - 21167 ER - TY - JOUR AB - In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie. AU - Michalak, Anna M. AU - Anderson, Eric J. AU - Beletsky, Dmitry AU - Boland, Steven AU - Bosch, Nathan S. AU - Bridgeman, Thomas B. AU - Chaffin, Justin D. AU - Cho, Kyunghwa AU - Confesor, Rem AU - Daloğlu, Irem AU - DePinto, Joseph V. AU - Evans, Mary Anne AU - Fahnenstiel, Gary L. AU - He, Lingli AU - Ho, Jeff C. AU - Jenkins, Liza AU - Johengen, Thomas H. AU - Kuo, Kevin C. AU - LaPorte, Elizabeth AU - Liu, Xiaojian AU - McWilliams, Michael R. AU - Moore, Michael R. AU - Posselt, Derek J. AU - Richards, R. Peter AU - Scavia, Donald AU - Steiner, Allison L. AU - Verhamme, Ed AU - Wright, David M. AU - Zagorski, Melissa A. DA - April 16, 2013 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1216006110 IS - 16 PY - 2013 SP - 6448-6452 ST - Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions VL - 110 ID - 21168 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Changes in tree growth rates can affect tree mortality and forest feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. As air temperature increases, evaporative demand also increases, increasing effective drought in forest ecosystems. Using a spatially comprehensive network of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) chronologies from 122 locations that represent distinct climate environments in the western United States, we show that increased temperature decreases growth via vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across all latitudes. Using an ensemble of global circulation models, we project an increase in both the mean VPD associated with the lowest growth extremes and the probability of exceeding these VPD values. As temperature continues to increase in future decades, we can expect deficit-related stress to increase and consequently Douglas fir growth to decrease throughout its US range. AU - Restaino, Christina M. AU - Peterson, David L. AU - Littell, Jeremy DA - August 23, 2016 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1602384113 IS - 34 PY - 2016 SP - 9557-9562 ST - Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests VL - 113 ID - 21169 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making. AU - Liang, Xin-Zhong AU - Wu, You AU - Chambers, Robert G. AU - Schmoldt, Daniel L. AU - Gao, Wei AU - Liu, Chaoshun AU - Liu, Yan-An AU - Sun, Chao AU - Kennedy, Jennifer A. DA - March 21, 2017 DO - 10.1073/pnas.1615922114 IS - 12 PY - 2017 SP - E2285-E2292 ST - Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity VL - 114 ID - 21170 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Their higher production performance and feed conversion efficiency make today's chickens more susceptible to heat stress than ever before. The increasing proportion of poultry production in tropical and subtropical regions makes it necessary to reconsider the long-term selection strategy of today's commercial breeding programmes. Also, the importance of the potential use of Naked neck and Frizzle genes is accentuated. Nutritional strategies aimed to alleviate the negative effects of heat stress by maintaining feed intake, electrolytic and water balance or by supplementing micronutrients such as Vitamins and minerals to satisfy the special needs during heat stress have been proven advantageous. To enhance the birds' thermotolerance by early heat conditioning or feed restriction seems to be one of the most promising management methods in enhancing the heat resistance of broiler chickens in the short run. AU - Lin, H. AU - Jiao, H. C. AU - Buyse, J. AU - Decuypere, E. DB - Cambridge Core DO - 10.1079/WPS200585 DP - Cambridge University Press ET - 09/01 IS - 1 KW - heat stress heat tolerance naked neck gene major gene Vitamin electrolyte feeding environment PY - 2007 SN - 0043-9339 SP - 71-86 ST - Strategies for preventing heat stress in poultry T2 - World's Poultry Science Journal TI - Strategies for preventing heat stress in poultry VL - 62 ID - 21171 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Trebitz, Anett S. AU - Hoffman, Joel C. DA - 2015/03/04 DO - 10.1080/00028487.2014.982257 IS - 2 PY - 2015 SN - 0002-8487 SP - 352-372 ST - Coastal wetland support of Great Lakes fisheries: Progress from concept to quantification T2 - Transactions of the American Fisheries Society TI - Coastal wetland support of Great Lakes fisheries: Progress from concept to quantification VL - 144 ID - 21172 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Werkheiser, Ian DA - 2016/01/02 DO - 10.1080/02691728.2014.971911 IS - 1 PY - 2016 SN - 0269-1728 SP - 25-44 ST - Community epistemic capacity T2 - Social Epistemology TI - Community epistemic capacity VL - 30 ID - 21173 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Henstra, Daniel DA - 2012/04/01 DO - 10.1080/13876988.2012.665215 IS - 2 PY - 2012 SN - 1387-6988 SP - 175-194 ST - Toward the climate-resilient city: Extreme weather and urban climate adaptation policies in two Canadian provinces T2 - Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice TI - Toward the climate-resilient city: Extreme weather and urban climate adaptation policies in two Canadian provinces VL - 14 ID - 21174 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kousky, Carolyn DA - 2010/10/18 DO - 10.1080/19390459.2010.511451 IS - 4 PY - 2010 SN - 1939-0459 SP - 343-356 ST - Using natural capital to reduce disaster risk T2 - Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research TI - Using natural capital to reduce disaster risk VL - 2 ID - 21175 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Forest management faces an uncertain future with changing climates and disturbance regimes. Multi-aged forest management systems represent a promising approach for increasing resistance and resilience, thereby limiting major disruptions to timber production and other ecosystem services. Multi-aged stands inherently have greater resistance and resilience to disturbances because of the presence of several age classes and more potential pathways for post-disturbance management and recovery. The preponderance of research also indicates few differences in productivity between multi-aged and even-aged management strategies. These factors combined suggest that increased adoption of multi-aged management systems will lead to a reduction in long-term risks. We advocate a disturbance integration management strategy that encourages managers to emulate disturbance effects with management, anticipate disturbances in planning, integrate the management of residual stand structures into salvage operations and build variable treatment intervals or cutting cycles into management regimes. AU - O'Hara, Kevin L. AU - Ramage, Benjamin S. DO - 10.1093/forestry/cpt012 IS - 4 PY - 2013 SN - 0015-752X SP - 401-410 ST - Silviculture in an uncertain world: Utilizing multi-aged management systems to integrate disturbance T2 - Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research TI - Silviculture in an uncertain world: Utilizing multi-aged management systems to integrate disturbance VL - 86 ID - 21176 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate change is already affecting the geographic distribution of host trees and their associated insects and pathogens, with anticipated increases in pest impacts by both native and invasive pests. Although climate change will benefit many forest insects, changes in thermal conditions may disrupt evolved life history traits and cause phenological mismatches. Individually, the threats posed to forest ecosystems by invasive pests and climate change are serious. Although interactions between these two drivers and their outcomes are poorly understood and hence difficult to predict, it is clear that the cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems will be exacerbated. Here we introduce and synthesize the information in this special issue of Forestry with articles that illustrate the impacts of invasions of insects and pathogens, climate change, forest management and their interactions, as well as methods to predict, assess and mitigate these impacts. Most of these contributions were presented at the XXIV IUFRO World Congress in 2014. AU - Ramsfield, T. D. AU - Bentz, B. J. AU - Faccoli, M. AU - Jactel, H. AU - Brockerhoff, E. G. DO - 10.1093/forestry/cpw018 IS - 3 PY - 2016 SN - 0015-752X SP - 245-252 ST - Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts T2 - Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research TI - Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts VL - 89 ID - 21177 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Aedes ( Stegomyia ) aegypti (L.) and Aedes ( Stegomyia ) albopictus (Skuse) transmit arboviruses that are increasing threats to human health in the Americas, particularly dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Epidemics of the associated arboviral diseases have been limited to South and Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean in the Western Hemisphere, with only minor localized outbreaks in the United States. Nevertheless, accurate and up-to-date information for the geographical ranges of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States is urgently needed to guide surveillance and enhance control capacity for these mosquitoes. We compiled county records for presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States from 1995-2016, presented here in map format. Records were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET database, VectorMap, the published literature, and a survey of mosquito control agencies, university researchers, and state and local health departments. Between January 1995 and March 2016, 183 counties from 26 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. aegypti , and 1,241 counties from 40 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. albopictus . During the same time period, Ae. aegypti was collected in 3 or more years from 94 counties from 14 states and the District of Columbia, and Ae. albopictus was collected during 3 or more years from 514 counties in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Our findings underscore the need for systematic surveillance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States and delineate areas with risk for the transmission of these introduced arboviruses. AU - Hahn, Micah B. AU - Eisen, Rebecca J. AU - Eisen, Lars AU - Boegler, Karen A. AU - Moore, Chester G. AU - McAllister, Janet AU - Savage, Harry M. AU - Mutebi, John-Paul DO - 10.1093/jme/tjw072 IS - 5 PY - 2016 SN - 0022-2585 SP - 1169-1175 ST - Reported distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae) T2 - Journal of Medical Entomology TI - Reported distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae) VL - 53 ID - 21178 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Munkvold, G. P. AU - Yang, X. B. DO - 10.1094/PD-79-0095 IS - 1 LA - English PY - 1995 SN - 0191-2917 SP - 95-101 ST - Crop damage and epidemics associated with 1993 floods in Iowa T2 - Plant Disease TI - Crop damage and epidemics associated with 1993 floods in Iowa VL - 79 ID - 21179 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Liu, Qiong AU - Ravanlou, Abbasali AU - Babadoost, Mohammad DA - 2016/12/01 DO - 10.1094/PDIS-01-16-0107-RE IS - 12 PY - 2016 SN - 0191-2917 SP - 2377-2382 ST - Occurrence of bacterial spot on pumpkin and squash fruit in the north central region of the United States and bacteria associated with the spots T2 - Plant Disease TI - Occurrence of bacterial spot on pumpkin and squash fruit in the north central region of the United States and bacteria associated with the spots VL - 100 Y2 - 2017/09/18 ID - 21180 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. AU - Cahill, Abigail E. AU - Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E. AU - Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin AU - Hua, Xia AU - Karanewsky, Caitlin J. AU - Yeong Ryu, Hae AU - Sbeglia, Gena C. AU - Spagnolo, Fabrizio AU - Waldron, John B. AU - Warsi, Omar AU - Wiens, John J. DO - 10.1098/rspb.2012.1890 IS - 1750 PY - 2013 ST - How does climate change cause extinction? T2 - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences TI - How does climate change cause extinction? VL - 280 ID - 21182 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Dey, K. C. AU - Mishra, A. AU - Chowdhury, M. DO - 10.1109/TITS.2014.2371455 IS - 3 KW - innovation management intelligent transportation systems mobile computing roads socio-economic effects weather forecasting ITS innovations ITS-based initiatives RWIS adverse weather conditions adverse weather impacts governmental weather services mobile road weather data collection proactive maintenance activities reactive maintenance activities road mobility road weather events road weather forecasting techniques road weather information system route-specific road weather conditions society economic output surface transportation system system-wide deployments Computer crashes Maintenance engineering Snow Climate change connected vehicles extreme weather events intelligent transportation systems (ITS) road weather winter road maintenance PY - 2015 SN - 1524-9050 SP - 1107-1119 ST - Potential of intelligent transportation systems in mitigating adverse weather impacts on road mobility: A review T2 - IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems TI - Potential of intelligent transportation systems in mitigating adverse weather impacts on road mobility: A review VL - 16 ID - 21183 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ogden, Nicholas H. AU - Lindsay, L. Robbin AU - Leighton, Patrick A. DO - 10.1111/1365-2664.12050 IS - 2 KW - Borrelia burgdorferi emerging infectious disease invasion Ixodes scapularis surveillance PY - 2013 SN - 1365-2664 SP - 510-518 ST - Predicting the rate of invasion of the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi T2 - Journal of Applied Ecology TI - Predicting the rate of invasion of the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi VL - 50 ID - 21184 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Garris, Heath W. AU - Mitchell, Randall J. AU - Fraser, Lauchlan H. AU - Barrett, Linda R. DO - 10.1111/gcb.12748 IS - 2 KW - artificial neural network climate projections isothermality midwest modeling wetlands WorldClim PY - 2015 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 766-776 ST - Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states VL - 21 ID - 21185 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Clark, James S. AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Woodall, Christopher W. AU - Allen, Craig D. AU - Bell, David M. AU - Bragg, Don C. AU - D'Amato, Anthony W. AU - Davis, Frank W. AU - Hersh, Michelle H. AU - Ibanez, Ines AU - Jackson, Stephen T. AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Pederson, Neil AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Schwartz, Mark W. AU - Waring, Kristen M. AU - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. DO - 10.1111/gcb.13160 IS - 7 KW - climate change drought forest dieback forest management PY - 2016 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 2329-2352 ST - The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States T2 - Global Change Biology TI - The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States VL - 22 ID - 21186 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ash, Jeremy D. AU - Givnish, Thomas J. AU - Waller, Donald M. DO - 10.1111/gcb.13429 IS - 3 KW - climate analog forest understory functional traits geographic centroid migratory lag PY - 2017 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 1305-1315 ST - Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change VL - 23 ID - 21187 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Boisvenue, Céline AU - Running, Steven W. DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01134.x IS - 5 KW - climate change climate change impacts forest growth forest productivity forest vegetation review of changes in forests PY - 2006 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 862-882 ST - Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century VL - 12 ID - 21189 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tobin, Patrick C. AU - Nagarkatti, Sudha AU - Loeb, Greg AU - Saunders, Michael C. DO - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x IS - 5 KW - climate change diapause insect population dynamics phenology photoperiod seasonality voltinism PY - 2008 SN - 1365-2486 SP - 951-957 ST - Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species VL - 14 ID - 21190 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sturrock, R. N. AU - Frankel, S. J. AU - Brown, A. V. AU - Hennon, P. E. AU - Kliejunas, J. T. AU - Lewis, K. J. AU - Worrall, J. J. AU - Woods, A. J. DO - 10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02406.x IS - 1 KW - forest management forest pathogens plant disease management plant pathogens sudden aspen decline yellow-cedar decline PY - 2011 SN - 1365-3059 SP - 133-149 ST - Climate change and forest diseases T2 - Plant Pathology TI - Climate change and forest diseases VL - 60 ID - 21191 ER - TY - JOUR AU - McEwan, Ryan W. AU - Dyer, James M. AU - Pederson, Neil DO - 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06390.x IS - 2 PY - 2011 SN - 1600-0587 SP - 244-256 ST - Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America T2 - Ecography TI - Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America VL - 34 ID - 21192 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Will, Rodney E. AU - Wilson, Stuart M. AU - Zou, Chris B. AU - Hennessey, Thomas C. DO - 10.1111/nph.12321 IS - 2 KW - drought mortality seedlings transpiration vapor pressure deficit (VPD) water potential PY - 2013 SN - 1469-8137 SP - 366-374 ST - Increased vapor pressure deficit due to higher temperature leads to greater transpiration and faster mortality during drought for tree seedlings common to the forest–grassland ecotone T2 - New Phytologist TI - Increased vapor pressure deficit due to higher temperature leads to greater transpiration and faster mortality during drought for tree seedlings common to the forest–grassland ecotone VL - 200 ID - 21193 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water. AU - Dawson, Terence P. AU - Jackson, Stephen T. AU - House, Joanna I. AU - Prentice, Iain Colin AU - Mace, Georgina M. DO - 10.1126/science.1200303 IS - 6025 PY - 2011 SP - 53-58 ST - Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate T2 - Science TI - Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate VL - 332 ID - 21195 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services. AU - Millar, Constance I. AU - Stephenson, Nathan L. DO - 10.1126/science.aaa9933 IS - 6250 PY - 2015 SP - 823-826 ST - Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance T2 - Science TI - Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance VL - 349 ID - 21196 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jones, Michael L. AU - Shuter, Brian J. AU - Zhao, Yingming AU - Stockwell, Jason D. DA - 2006/02/01 DO - 10.1139/f05-239 IS - 2 PY - 2006 SN - 0706-652X SP - 457-468 ST - Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: Models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: Models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help VL - 63 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21197 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Trebitz, Anett S. AU - Brazner, John C. AU - Danz, Nicholas P. AU - Pearson, Mark S. AU - Peterson, Gregory S. AU - Tanner, Danny K. AU - Taylor, Debra L. AU - West, Corlis W. AU - Hollenhorst, Thomas P. DA - 2009/08/01 DO - 10.1139/F09-089 IS - 8 PY - 2009 SN - 0706-652X SP - 1328-1342 ST - Geographic, anthropogenic, and habitat influences on Great Lakes coastal wetland fish assemblages T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Geographic, anthropogenic, and habitat influences on Great Lakes coastal wetland fish assemblages VL - 66 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21198 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Auclair, Allan N. D. AU - Heilman, Warren E. AU - Brinkman, Blondel DA - 2010/04/01 DO - 10.1139/X10-023 IS - 4 PY - 2010 SN - 0045-5067 SP - 687-702 ST - Predicting forest dieback in Maine, USA: A simple model based on soil frost and drought T2 - Canadian Journal of Forest Research TI - Predicting forest dieback in Maine, USA: A simple model based on soil frost and drought VL - 40 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21199 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Simulations from 18 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs are analyzed to predict changes in the climatological Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and Midwest U.S. hydrology resulting from greenhouse gas increases during the twenty-first century. To build confidence in the prediction, models are selected for analysis based on their twentieth-century simulations, and their simulations of the future are diagnosed to ensure that the response is reasonable. Confidence in the model projections is also bolstered by agreement among models, in a so-called multimodel ensemble, and by analogy with present-day interannual variability. The GCMs agree that the GPLLJ will be more intense in April, May, and June in the future. The selected models even agree on the reason for this intensification, namely, a westward extension and strengthening of the North Atlantic subtropical high (the Bermuda high) that occurs when greenhouse gas–induced warming over the continental United States exceeds that of the subtropical Atlantic in the spring. Accompanying the changes in the GPLLJ are springtime precipitation increases of 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, which are closely associated with intensified meridional moisture convergence by the jet, with decreases to the south, which results in reduced moist static stability in the region. The simulated differences in the Midwest circulation and hydrology in the spring for the twenty-first century are similar to the observed moisture balance and circulation anomalies for May and, especially, June of 1993, a year of devastating floods throughout the Mississippi Valley. AU - Cook, Kerry H. AU - Vizy, Edward K. AU - Launer, Zachary S. AU - Patricola, Christina M. DO - 10.1175/2008jcli2355.1 IS - 23 KW - Jet,Precipitation,North America,Coupled models PY - 2008 SP - 6321-6340 ST - Springtime intensification of the Great Plains low-level jet and midwest precipitation in GCM simulations of the twenty-first century T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Springtime intensification of the Great Plains low-level jet and midwest precipitation in GCM simulations of the twenty-first century VL - 21 ID - 21200 ER - TY - JOUR AB - U.S. hourly surface observations are examined at 145 stations to identify annual and seasonal changes in temperature, dewpoint, relative humidity, and specific humidity since 1930. Because of numerous systematic instrument changes that have occurred, a homogeneity assessment was performed on temperatures and dewpoints. Dewpoints contained higher breakpoint detection rates associated with instrumentation changes than did temperatures. Temperature trends were tempered by adjusting the data, whereas dewpoints were unaffected. The effects were the same whether the adjustments were based on statistically detected or fixed-year breakpoints. Average long-term trends (1930–2010) indicate that temperature has warmed but that little change has occurred in dewpoint and specific humidity. Warming is strongest in spring. There is evidence of inhomogeneity in the relative humidity record that primarily affects data from prior to 1950. Therefore, long-term decreases in relative humidity, which are strongest in winter, need to be viewed with caution. Trends since 1947 indicate that the warming of temperatures has coincided with increases in dewpoints and a moistening of specific humidity. This moistening is especially pronounced during the summer in the Midwest. For the nation, trends in relative humidity show little change for the period 1947–2010, during which these data are more homogeneous. Moistening has occurred throughout the central United States while other regions have experienced drying. Urban-related warming and drying trends are present in the data, but their effect is minimal. Regional changes in land use and moisture availability are likely influencing trends in atmospheric moisture. AU - Brown, Paula J. AU - DeGaetano, Arthur T. DO - 10.1175/jamc-d-12-035.1 IS - 1 KW - Climate change,Surface temperature,Water vapor PY - 2013 SP - 147-163 ST - Trends in U.S. surface humidity, 1930–2010 T2 - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology TI - Trends in U.S. surface humidity, 1930–2010 VL - 52 ID - 21201 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October–March and decreases during May–August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea level pressure in autumn–winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones. AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Holman, Kathleen AU - Zarrin, Azar AU - Fluck, Elody AU - Vavrus, Steve AU - Bennington, Val DO - 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00140.1 IS - 3 KW - Lake effects,Regional effects,Climate models,Regional models PY - 2013 SP - 789-804 ST - Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on regional climate T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on regional climate VL - 26 ID - 21202 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result in warm summer biases in lake temperatures, excessive ice cover, and an abnormally early peak in lake evaporation. While the downscaling of both GCMs led to consistent projections of increases in annual air temperature, precipitation, and all NBS components (overlake precipitation, basinwide runoff, and lake evaporation), the resulting projected water level trends are opposite in sign. Clearly, it is not sufficient to correctly simulate the signs of the projected change in each NBS component; one must also account for their relative magnitudes. The potential risk of more frequent episodes of lake levels below the low water datum, a critical shipping threshold, is explored. AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Bennington, Val AU - Lofgren, Brent DO - 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00847.1 IS - 24 KW - Geographic location/entity,Inland seas/lakes,Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Freshwater,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Hydrology,Models and modeling,Regional models,Variability,Climate variability PY - 2015 SP - 9721-9745 ST - Dynamical downscaling–based projections of Great Lakes water levels T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Dynamical downscaling–based projections of Great Lakes water levels VL - 28 ID - 21203 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the large basin runoff model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); as in previous published work, it is shown here that the model’s very high sensitivity to temperature causes it to overestimate ET in a way that is greatly at variance with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. The traditional formulation is characterized here as being equivalent to having several suns in the virtual sky created by LBRM. More physically based methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less potential ET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, it is found that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level. The lesson for the larger climate impact community is to use caution about whether an impact is forced directly by air temperature itself or is significantly forced by season or latitude independently of temperature. The results here apply only to the water levels of the Great Lakes and the hydrology of its basin and do not affect larger questions of climate change. AU - Lofgren, Brent M. AU - Rouhana, Jonathan DO - 10.1175/jhm-d-15-0220.1 IS - 8 KW - Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Energy budget/balance,Hydrometeorology,Models and modeling,Hydrologic models,Land surface model PY - 2016 SP - 2209-2223 ST - Physically plausible methods for projecting changes in Great Lakes water levels under climate change scenarios T2 - Journal of Hydrometeorology TI - Physically plausible methods for projecting changes in Great Lakes water levels under climate change scenarios VL - 17 ID - 21205 ER - TY - JOUR AB - High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall (LES) to changes in lake ice cover and surface temperature. A control simulation with observed ice cover is compared with three sensitivity tests: complete ice cover, no lake ice, and warmer lake surface temperatures. The spatial pattern of unfrozen lake surfaces determines the placement of LES, and complete ice cover eliminates it. Removal of ice cover and an increase in lake temperatures result in an expansion of the LES area both along and downwind of the lake shore, as well as an increase in snowfall amount. While lake temperatures and phase determine the amount and spatial coverage of LES, the finescale distribution of LES is strongly affected by the interaction between lake surface fluxes, the large-scale flow, and the local lake shore geography and inland topography. As a consequence, the sensitivity of LES to topography and shore geometry differs for lakes with short versus long overwater fetch. These simulations indicate that coarse-resolution models may be able to realistically reproduce the gross features of LES in future climates, but will miss the important local-scale interactions that determine the location and intensity of LES. AU - Wright, David M. AU - Posselt, Derek J. AU - Steiner, Allison L. DO - 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00038.1 IS - 2 KW - Lake effects,Mesoscale processes,Snowbands,Climate change,Regional effects,Mesoscale models PY - 2013 SP - 670-689 ST - Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region T2 - Monthly Weather Review TI - Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region VL - 141 ID - 21206 ER - TY - JOUR AB - While research focusing on how boundary organizations influence the use of climate information has expanded substantially in the past few decades, there has been relatively less attention to how these organizations innovate and adapt to different environments and users. This paper investigates how one boundary organization, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), has adapted by creating ?boundary chains? to diversify its client base while minimizing transaction costs, increasing scientific knowledge usability, and better meeting client climate information needs. In this approach, boundary organizations connect like links in a chain and together these links span the range between the production of knowledge and its use. Three main chain configurations are identified. In the key chain approach, GLISA has partnered with other organizations in a number of separate projects simultaneously, diversifying its client base without sacrificing customization. In the linked chain approach, GLISA is one of several linked boundary organizations that successively deepen the level of customization to meet particular users' needs. Finally, by partnering with multiple organizations and stakeholder groups in both configurations, GLISA may be laying the groundwork for enhancing their partners' own capacity to make climate-related decisions through a networked chain approach that facilitates cooperation among organizations and groups. Each of these approaches represents an adaptive strategy that both enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of participating boundary organizations' work and improves the provision of climate information that meets users needs. AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen AU - Kirchhoff, Christine J. AU - Kalafatis, Scott E. AU - Scavia, Donald AU - Rood, Richard B. DA - 2014/04/01 DO - 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00044.1 IS - 2 PY - 2014 SN - 1948-8327 SP - 273-285 ST - Moving climate information off the shelf: Boundary chains and the role of RISAs as adaptive organizations T2 - Weather, Climate, and Society TI - Moving climate information off the shelf: Boundary chains and the role of RISAs as adaptive organizations VL - 6 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21208 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The disease burden due to heat-stress illness (HSI), which can result in significant morbidity and mortality, is expected to increase as the climate continues to warm. In the United States (U.S.) much of what is known about HSI epidemiology is from analyses of urban heat waves. There is limited research addressing whether HSI hospitalization risk varies between urban and rural areas, nor is much known about additional diagnoses of patients hospitalized for HSI. AU - Jagai, Jyotsna S. AU - Grossman, Elena AU - Navon, Livia AU - Sambanis, Apostolis AU - Dorevitch, Samuel DA - April 07 DO - 10.1186/s12940-017-0245-1 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1476-069X SP - 38 ST - Hospitalizations for heat-stress illness varies between rural and urban areas: An analysis of Illinois data, 1987–2014 T2 - Environmental Health TI - Hospitalizations for heat-stress illness varies between rural and urban areas: An analysis of Illinois data, 1987–2014 VL - 16 ID - 21209 ER - TY - JOUR AB - After Hurricane Katrina, many New Orleans homes remained flooded for weeks, promoting heavy microbial growth. OBJECTIVES: A small demonstration project was conducted November 2005–January 2006 aiming to recommend safe remediation techniques and safe levels of worker protection, and to characterize airborne mold and endotoxin throughout cleanup. METHODS: Three houses with floodwater lines between 0.3 and 2 m underwent intervention, including disposal of damaged furnishings and drywall, cleaning surfaces, drying remaining structure, and treatment with a biostatic agent. We measured indoor and outdoor bioaerosols before, during, and after intervention. Samples were analyzed for fungi [culture, spore analysis, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)] and endotoxin. In one house, real-time particle counts were also assessed, and respirator-efficiency testing was performed to establish workplace protection factors (WPF). RESULTS: At baseline, culturable mold ranged from 22,000 to 515,000 colony-forming units/m(3), spore counts ranged from 82,000 to 630,000 spores/m(3), and endotoxin ranged from 17 to 139 endotoxin units/m(3). Culture, spore analysis, and PCR indicated that Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Paecilomyces predominated. After intervention, levels of mold and endotoxin were generally lower (sometimes, orders of magnitude). The average WPF against fungal spores for elastomeric respirators was higher than for the N-95 respirators. CONCLUSIONS: During baseline and intervention, mold and endotoxin levels were similar to those found in agricultural environments. We strongly recommend that those entering, cleaning, and repairing flood-damaged homes wear respirators at least as protective as elastomeric respirators. Recommendations based on this demonstration will benefit those involved in the current cleanup activities and will inform efforts to respond to future disasters. AU - Chew, Ginger L. AU - Wilson, Jonathan AU - Rabito, Felicia A. AU - Grimsley, Faye AU - Iqbal, Shahed AU - Reponen, Tiina AU - Muilenberg, Michael L. AU - Thorne, Peter S. AU - Dearborn, Dorr G. AU - Morley, Rebecca L. DA - 08/24 04/11/received 08/24/accepted DB - PMC DO - 10.1289/ehp.9258 IS - 12 PY - 2006 SN - 0091-6765 1552-9924 SP - 1883-1889 ST - Mold and endotoxin levels in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: A pilot project of homes in New Orleans undergoing renovation T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Mold and endotoxin levels in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: A pilot project of homes in New Orleans undergoing renovation VL - 114 ID - 21210 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research. AU - Woodcock, James AU - Givoni, Moshe AU - Morgan, Andrei Scott DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0051462 IS - 1 PY - 2013 SP - e51462 ST - Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an integrated transport and health impact modelling tool (ITHIM) T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an integrated transport and health impact modelling tool (ITHIM) VL - 8 ID - 21211 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species. AU - Cline, Timothy J. AU - Bennington, Val AU - Kitchell, James F. DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0062279 IS - 4 PY - 2013 SP - e62279 ST - Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes VL - 8 ID - 21212 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. AU - Carroll, Carlos AU - Lawler, Joshua J. AU - Roberts, David R. AU - Hamann, Andreas DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 IS - 10 PY - 2015 SP - e0140486 ST - Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change VL - 10 ID - 21213 ER - TY - JOUR AB - EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management. AU - Goring, Simon J. AU - Mladenoff, David J. AU - Cogbill, Charles V. AU - Record, Sydne AU - Paciorek, Christopher J. AU - Jackson, Stephen T. AU - Dietze, Michael C. AU - Dawson, Andria AU - Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala AU - McLachlan, Jason S. AU - Williams, John W. DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0151935 IS - 12 PY - 2016 SP - e0151935 ST - Novel and lost forests in the upper midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Novel and lost forests in the upper midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass VL - 11 ID - 21214 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Urban habitats are characterized by impervious surfaces, which increase temperatures and reduce water availability to plants. The effects of these conditions on herbivorous insects are not well understood, but may provide insight into future conditions. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain why multiple herbivorous arthropods are more abundant and damaging in cities, and support has been found for each. First, less complex vegetation may reduce biological control of pests. Second, plant stress can increase plant quality for pests. And third, urban warming can directly increase pest fitness and abundance. These hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, and the effects of temperature and plant stress are particularly related. Thus, we test the hypothesis that urban warming and drought stress combine to increase the fitness and abundance of the scale insect, Melanaspis tenebricosa, an urban tree pest that is more abundant in urban than rural areas of the southeastern U.S. We did this by manipulating drought stress across an existing mosaic of urban warming. We found support for the additive effect of temperature and drought stress such that female embryo production and body size increased with temperature and was greater on drought-stressed than watered trees. This study provides further evidence that drivers of pest insect outbreaks act in concert, rather than independently, and calls for more research that manipulates multiple abiotic factors related to urbanization and climate change to predict their effects on ecological interactions. As cities expand and the climate changes, warmer temperatures and drought conditions may become more widespread in the native range of this pest. These changes have direct physiological benefits for M. tenebricosa, and potentially other pests, that may increase their fitness and abundance in urban and natural forests. AU - Dale, Adam G. AU - Frank, Steven D. DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0173844 IS - 3 PY - 2017 SP - e0173844 ST - Warming and drought combine to increase pest insect fitness on urban trees T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Warming and drought combine to increase pest insect fitness on urban trees VL - 12 ID - 21215 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Whyte, Kyle Powys DO - 10.1504/IER.2014.063658 IS - 2/3 PY - 2014 SP - 114-133 ST - A concern about shifting interactions between indigenous and non-indigenous parties in US climate adaptation contexts T2 - Interdisciplinary Environmental Review TI - A concern about shifting interactions between indigenous and non-indigenous parties in US climate adaptation contexts VL - 15 ID - 21216 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Madenjian, Charles P. AU - O'Gorman, Robert AU - Bunnell, David B. AU - Argyle, Ray L. AU - Roseman, Edward F. AU - Warner, David M. AU - Stockwell, Jason D. AU - Stapanian, Martin A. DA - 2008/02/01 DO - 10.1577/M07-012.1 IS - 1 PY - 2008 SN - 0275-5947 SP - 263-282 ST - Adverse effects of alewives on Laurentian Great Lakes fish communities T2 - North American Journal of Fisheries Management TI - Adverse effects of alewives on Laurentian Great Lakes fish communities VL - 28 ID - 21217 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Higgins, S. N. AU - Zanden, M. J. Vander DO - 10.1890/09-1249.1 IS - 2 KW - benthic–pelagic coupling biological invasion cross-habitat subsidies Dreissena spp. ecosystem engineer exotic species facilitation food web disruption invasive species quagga mussel zebra mussel PY - 2010 SN - 1557-7015 SP - 179-196 ST - What a difference a species makes: A meta–analysis of dreissenid mussel impacts on freshwater ecosystems T2 - Ecological Monographs TI - What a difference a species makes: A meta–analysis of dreissenid mussel impacts on freshwater ecosystems VL - 80 ID - 21218 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Weed, Aaron S. AU - Ayres, Matthew P. AU - Hicke, Jeffrey A. DO - 10.1890/13-0160.1 IS - 4 KW - atmospheric drivers bark beetles defoliators economic impact ecosystem interactions forest health management greenhouses gases outbreak pathogens PY - 2013 SN - 1557-7015 SP - 441-470 ST - Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests T2 - Ecological Monographs TI - Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests VL - 83 ID - 21220 ER - TY - JOUR AU - D'Amato, Anthony W. AU - Bradford, John B. AU - Fraver, Shawn AU - Palik, Brian J. DO - 10.1890/13-0677.1 IS - 8 KW - climate change growth–climate relationships Minnesota, USA Pinus resinosa PY - 2013 SN - 1939-5582 SP - 1735-1742 ST - Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems T2 - Ecological Applications TI - Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems VL - 23 ID - 21221 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ludsin, Stuart A. AU - Kershner, Mark W. AU - Blocksom, Karen A. AU - Knight, Roger L. AU - Stein, Roy A. DO - 10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[0731:LADILE]2.0.CO;2 IS - 3 KW - detrended correspondence analysis eutrophication Great Lakes Lake Erie oligotrophication phosphorus abatement productivity resilience species diversity species richness species turnover succession PY - 2001 SN - 1939-5582 SP - 731-746 ST - Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation T2 - Ecological Applications TI - Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation VL - 11 ID - 21222 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Frelich, Lee E. AU - Reich, Peter B. DO - 10.1890/080191 IS - 7 PY - 2010 SN - 1540-9309 SP - 371-378 ST - Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie–forest border of central North America? T2 - Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment TI - Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie–forest border of central North America? VL - 8 ID - 21223 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Larsen, Larissa DO - 10.1890/150103 IS - 9 PY - 2015 SN - 1540-9309 SP - 486-492 ST - Urban climate and adaptation strategies T2 - Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment TI - Urban climate and adaptation strategies VL - 13 ID - 21224 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Duveneck, Matthew J. AU - Scheller, Robert M. AU - White, Mark A. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Ravenscroft, Catherine C7 - art23 DO - 10.1890/ES13-00370.1 IS - 2 KW - biodiversity climate change forest management forest simulation model LANDIS-II Michigan, USA Minnesota, USA PY - 2014 SN - 2150-8925 SP - 1-26 ST - Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity T2 - Ecosphere TI - Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity VL - 5 ID - 21225 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cline, Timothy J. AU - Kitchell, James F. AU - Bennington, Val AU - McKinley, Galen A. AU - Moody, Eric K. AU - Weidel, Brian C. C7 - art68 DO - 10.1890/ES14-00059.1 IS - 6 KW - adaptive management climate change Great Lakes host invasive species Lake Superior lake trout parasite sea lamprey PY - 2014 SN - 2150-8925 SP - 1-13 ST - Climate impacts on landlocked sea lamprey: Implications for host-parasite interactions and invasive species management T2 - Ecosphere TI - Climate impacts on landlocked sea lamprey: Implications for host-parasite interactions and invasive species management VL - 5 ID - 21226 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Numerous models and indices exist that attempt to characterize the effect of environmental factors on the comfort of animals and humans. Heat and cold indices have been utilized to adjust ambient temperature (Ta) for the effects of relative humidity (RH) or wind speed (WS) or both for the purposes of obtaining a "feels-like" or apparent temperature. However, no model has been found that incorporates adjustments for RH, WS, and radiation (RAD) over conditions that encompass hot and cold environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive climate index (CCI) that has application under a wide range of environmental conditions and provides an adjustment to Ta for RH, WS, and RAD. Environmental data were compiled from 9 separate summer periods in which heat stress events occurred and from 6 different winter periods to develop and validate the CCI. The RH adjustment is derived from an exponential relationship between Ta and RH with temperature being adjusted up or down from an RH value of 30%. At 45°C, the temperature adjustment for increasing RH from 30 to 100% equals approximately 16°C, whereas at -30°C temperature adjustments due to increasing RH from 30 to 100% equal approximately -3.0°C, with greater RH values contributing to a reduced apparent temperature under cold conditions. The relationship between WS and temperature adjustments was also determined to be exponential with a logarithmic adjustment to define appropriate declines in apparent temperature as WS increases. With this index, slower WS results in the greatest change in apparent temperature per unit of WS regardless of whether hot or cold conditions exist. As WS increases, the change in apparent temperature per unit of WS becomes less. Based on existing windchill and heat indices, the effect of WS on apparent temperature is sufficiently similar to allow one equation to be utilized under hot and cold conditions. The RAD component was separated into direct solar radiation and ground surface radiation. Both of these were found to have a linear relationship with Ta. This index will be useful for further development of biological response functions, which are associated with energy exchange, and improving decision-making processes, which are weather-dependent. In addition, the defined thresholds can serve as management and environmental mitigation guidelines to protect and ensure animal comfort. AU - Mader, T. L. AU - Johnson, L. J. AU - Gaughan, J. B. DO - 10.2527/jas.2009-2586 IS - 6 LA - English PY - 2010 SP - 2153-2165 ST - A comprehensive index for assessing environmental stress in animals T2 - Journal of Animal Science TI - A comprehensive index for assessing environmental stress in animals VL - 88 ID - 21227 ER - TY - JOUR AU - St-Pierre, N. R. AU - Cobanov, B. AU - Schnitkey, G. DO - 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)74040-5 PY - 2003 SN - 0022-0302 SP - E52-E77 ST - Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries T2 - Journal of Dairy Science TI - Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries VL - 86 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21228 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Aronson, Myla F. J. AU - Handel, Steven N. DA - 2011/10/01 DO - 10.3375/043.031.0410 IS - 4 PY - 2011 SN - 0885-8608 SP - 400-407 ST - Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration T2 - Natural Areas Journal TI - Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration VL - 31 Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21229 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Samples, Amy DO - 10.3998/mjs.12333712.0003.004 PY - 2015 SP - 65-72 ST - Engaging marina and harbor operators in climate adaptation T2 - Michigan Journal of Sustainability TI - Engaging marina and harbor operators in climate adaptation VL - 3 ID - 21230 ER - TY - JOUR AB - West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season. AU - Hahn, Micah B. AU - Monaghan, Andrew J. AU - Hayden, Mary H. AU - Eisen, Rebecca J. AU - Delorey, Mark J. AU - Lindsey, Nicole P. AU - Nasci, Roger S. AU - Fischer, Marc DA - 11/30/received 02/08/accepted DB - PMC DO - 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0737 IS - 5 PY - 2015 SN - 0002-9637 1476-1645 SP - 1013-1022 ST - Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012 T2 - The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene TI - Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012 VL - 92 ID - 21231 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Austin, Jay AU - Colman, Steve DO - 10.4319/lo.2008.53.6.2724 IS - 6 PY - 2008 SN - 1939-5590 SP - 2724-2730 ST - A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior T2 - Limnology and Oceanography TI - A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior VL - 53 ID - 21232 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Van Cleave, Katherine AU - Lenters, John D. AU - Wang, Jia AU - Verhamme, Edward M. DO - 10.4319/lo.2014.59.6.1889 IS - 6 PY - 2014 SN - 1939-5590 SP - 1889-1898 ST - A regime shift in Lake Superior ice cover, evaporation, and water temperature following the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998 T2 - Limnology and Oceanography TI - A regime shift in Lake Superior ice cover, evaporation, and water temperature following the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998 VL - 59 ID - 21233 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Takle, Eugene S. Takle AU - Gustafson, David AU - Beachy, Roger AU - Nelson, Gerald C. AU - Mason-D’Croz, Daniel AU - Palazzo, Amanda DO - 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34 IS - 2013-34 PY - 2013 SP - 1-41 ST - US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures T2 - Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal TI - US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures VL - 7 ID - 21234 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mallard, M. S. AU - Nolte, C. G. AU - Spero, T. L. AU - Bullock, O. R. AU - Alapaty, K. AU - Herwehe, J. A. AU - Gula, J. AU - Bowden, J. H. DO - 10.5194/gmd-8-1085-2015 IS - 4 PY - 2015 SN - 1991-9603 SP - 1085-1096 ST - Technical challenges and solutions in representing lakes when using WRF in downscaling applications T2 - Geoscientific Model Development TI - Technical challenges and solutions in representing lakes when using WRF in downscaling applications VL - 8 ID - 21235 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Conrad IV, Joseph L. AU - Demchik, Michael C. AU - Vokoun, Melinda M. AU - Evans, Alexander M. AU - Lynch, Michael P. DO - 10.5849/FS-2016-051 PY - 2017 ST - Foresters' perceptions of the frequency, cost, and rationale for seasonal timber harvesting restrictions in Wisconsin T2 - Forest Science TI - Foresters' perceptions of the frequency, cost, and rationale for seasonal timber harvesting restrictions in Wisconsin ID - 21236 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) has been proposed as a basis for enhanced understanding of ecological systems and their management. TEK also can contribute to targeted inventories of resources not included in standard mensuration. We discuss the results of a cooperative effort between the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) and USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA). At the urging of member tribes, GLIFWC staff worked with tribal gatherers to document TEK regarding desired characteristics of birch bark for traditional uses and translated this into an inventory field guide. The guide was provided to FIA, which incorporated the methods into its field manual and trained inventory crews in implementation of the protocol. Birch bark data were collected during three field seasons from 2004 to 2006. Results show birch bark supply has declined. Lessons learned from this multiyear, multistage project provide a model for future targeted inventory efforts. AU - Emery, Marla R. AU - Wrobel, Alexandra AU - Hansen, Mark H. AU - Dockry, Michael AU - Moser, W. Keith AU - Stark, Kekek Jason AU - Gilbert, Jonathan H. DA - // DO - 10.5849/jof.13-023 IS - 2 KW - American Indians Betula papyrifera forest inventory and monitoring nontimber forest products traditional ecological knowledge PY - 2014 SP - 207-214 ST - Using traditional ecological knowledge as a basis for targeted forest inventories: Paper birch (Betula papyrifera) in the US Great Lakes region T2 - Journal of Forestry TI - Using traditional ecological knowledge as a basis for targeted forest inventories: Paper birch (Betula papyrifera) in the US Great Lakes region VL - 112 ID - 21237 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There is an ever-growing body of literature on forest management strategies for climate change adaptation; however, few frameworks have been presented for integrating these strategies with the real-world challenges of forest management. We have developed a structured approach for translating broad adaptation concepts into specific management actions and silvicultural practices for forest adaptation, as well as an associated set of resources to assist managers in using this approach. A variety of public, private, nongovernmental, and tribal natural resource managers are using this approach to develop projects that implement a diversity of adaptation actions while also meeting manager-identified goals. We describe how managers can integrate climate change information into management planning and activities and provide examples of real-world forest management projects that identify actions to help forests adapt to changing conditions. AU - Janowiak, Maria K. AU - Swanston, Christopher W. AU - Nagel, Linda M. AU - Brandt, Leslie A. AU - Butler, Patricia R. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Iverson, Louis R. AU - Matthews, Stephen N. AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Peters, Matthew P. DA - // DO - 10.5849/jof.13-094 IS - 5 KW - adaptation case study climate change forest management PY - 2014 SP - 424-433 ST - A practical approach for translating climate change adaptation principles into forest management actions T2 - Journal of Forestry TI - A practical approach for translating climate change adaptation principles into forest management actions VL - 112 ID - 21238 ER - TY - JOUR AB - This article explores the generation, transmission, and nature of ecological knowledge used by tribal and nontribal natural resource management agency personnel who collectively manage a 666,542-acre forest in northern Minnesota. Using key informant interviews and an adapted grounded theory analysis, we documented the forms of knowledge participants expressed in their descriptions of the forest and forest management, including traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge. We found that study participants across agencies use multiple forms of knowledge, that this knowledge is generated and transferred in distinct ways, and that participants acknowledge several challenges and opportunities to integration of traditional and western scientific knowledge in forest management. Overall, ecological knowledge expressed by study participants revealed multiple ways of knowing the forest. Knowledge varied most distinctly in the influence of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections to the forest on knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Formalizing existing informal knowledge integration efforts with attention to power structures, institutional culture, and knowledge application is recommended.

Management and Policy Implications: Forest values, beliefs, and knowledge can vary dramatically and sometimes clash among natural resource professionals involved in comanaged forests, particularly those managed by tribal and nontribal agencies. Findings from in-depth interviews with tribal and nontribal resource managers reveal both distinct and shared perspectives on a comanaged forest in northern Minnesota; most notable were the unique roles of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections in knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Resource managers interested in the integration of traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge may find success in formalizing ongoing informal activities including mutual learning or training in cross-cultural contexts, relationship building among agency and tribal leaders, cooperation in forest and cultural resource management projects, and collaborative forest planning. Still, attention to existing power structures, institutional cultural differences, and knowledge application practices will be important to these efforts. AU - Bussey, John AU - Davenport, Mae A. AU - Emery, Marla R. AU - Carroll, Clint DA - // DO - 10.5849/jof.14-130 IS - 2 KW - adaptation comanagement forest management traditional ecological knowledge western scientific ecological knowledge PY - 2016 SP - 97-107 ST - "A lot of it comes from the heart": The nature and integration of ecological knowledge in tribal and nontribal forest management T2 - Journal of Forestry TI - "A lot of it comes from the heart": The nature and integration of ecological knowledge in tribal and nontribal forest management VL - 114 ID - 21239 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales.

Management and Policy Implications Forest managers can use vulnerability assessments to help understand which species and ecosystems may be at greatest risk in a changing climate. Vulnerability assessments explain what systems are the most (and least) vulnerable, and, more important, why they are vulnerable. We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) for forest managers and scientists to collaboratively assess forest ecosystem vulnerability. We applied EVAA to eight regions in the Midwest and Northeast totaling 252 million acres. Although we have applied EVAA at the ecoregional scale, it is flexible enough to be used at larger or smaller scales, depending on the needs of managers. Results from assessments using EVAA have been successfully applied to forest management decisions across the Midwest and Northeast by nongovernmental, private, and government forest managers. How this information is applied depends on the specific goals and objectives of different places and ownerships. AU - Brandt, Leslie A. AU - Butler, Patricia R. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Janowiak, Maria K. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Swanston, Christopher W. DA - // DO - 10.5849/jof.15-147 IS - 3 KW - adaptive capacity climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate impact assessment expert elicitation uncertainty PY - 2017 SP - 212-221 ST - Integrating science and management to assess forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change T2 - Journal of Forestry TI - Integrating science and management to assess forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change VL - 115 ID - 21240 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wood, Eric M. A2 - Kellermann, Jherime L. AU - Ewert, DavidN AU - Hall, KimberlyR AU - Smith, RobertJ AU - Rodewald, PaulG C4 - d19382cb-6fd4-47f1-b3e2-a1f93a64bbfb PB - CRC Press PY - 2015 SN - 978-1-4822-4030-6 SP - 17-46 ST - Landbird stopover in the Great Lakes region: Integrating habitat use and climate change in conservation T2 - Phenological Synchrony and Bird Migration T3 - Studies in Avian Biology TI - Landbird stopover in the Great Lakes region: Integrating habitat use and climate change in conservation Y2 - 2017/09/19 ID - 21242 ER - TY - EDBOOK AU - Shifley, Stephen R. AU - Moser, W. Keith CY - Newtown Square, PA PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2016 SN - Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-151 SP - 388 ST - Future Forests of the Northern United States TI - Future Forests of the Northern United States UR - https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/50448 ID - 21243 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Winters, Brad A. AU - Angel, Jim AU - Ballerine, Clayton AU - Byard, Jennifer AU - Flegel, Amanda AU - Gambill, Daniel AU - Jenkins, Emily AU - McConkey, Sally AU - Markus, Momcilo AU - Bender, Bruce A. AU - O’Toole, Molly J. CY - Springfield, IL PB - Illinois Department of Natural Resources PY - 2015 SP - 89 ST - Report for the Urban Flooding Awareness Act TI - Report for the Urban Flooding Awareness Act UR - https://www.dnr.illinois.gov/WaterResources/Documents/Final_UFAA_Report.pdf ID - 21244 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sawant, Abhiman Arjun AU - Patil, S. C. AU - Kalse, S. B. AU - Thakor, N. J. IS - 2 PY - 2012 SP - 110-118 ST - Effect of temperature, relative humidity and moisture content on germination percentage of wheat stored in different storage structures T2 - Agricultural Engineering International: CIGR Journal TI - Effect of temperature, relative humidity and moisture content on germination percentage of wheat stored in different storage structures UR - http://www.cigrjournal.org/index.php/Ejounral/article/view/2019 VL - 14 ID - 21245 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Global warming is expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more total rainfall and more frequent high intensity rainfall events. Rainfall amounts and intensities increased on average in the United States during the 20th century, and according to climate change models they are expected to continue to increase during the 21st century. These rainfall changes, along with expected changes in temperature, solar radiation, and atmospheric C02 concentrations, will have significant impacts on soil erosion rates. The processes involved in the impact of climate change on soil erosion by water are complex, involving changes in rainfall amounts and intensities, number of days of precipitation, ratio of rain to snow, plant biomass production, plant residue decomposition rates, soil microbial activity, evapo-transpiration rates, and shifts in land use necessary to accommodate a new climatic regime. This paper reviews several recent studies conducted by the authors that address the potential effects of climate change on soil erosion rates. The results show cause for concern. Rainfall erosivity levels may be on the rise across much of the United States. Where rainfall amounts increase, erosion and runoff will increase at an even greater rate: the ratio of erosion increase to annual rainfall increase is on the order of 1.7. Even in cases where annual rainfall would decrease, system feedbacks related to decreased biomass production could lead to greater susceptibility of the soil to erode. Results also show how farmers' response to climate change can potentially exacerbate, or ameliorate, the changes in erosion rates expected. AU - Nearing, MA AU - Pruski, F.F. AU - O'Neal, M.R. DA - January 1, 2004 IS - 1 PY - 2004 SP - 43-50 ST - Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review T2 - Journal of Soil and Water Conservation TI - Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review UR - http://www.jswconline.org/content/59/1/43.abstract VL - 59 ID - 21246 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Chhin, S. DB - CABDirect DO - 10.3390/f1040209 IS - 4 LA - English PY - 2010 SN - 1999-4907 SP - 209-229 ST - Influence of climate on the growth of hybrid poplar in Michigan T2 - Forests TI - Influence of climate on the growth of hybrid poplar in Michigan VL - 1 ID - 21247 ER - TY - PRESS AU - U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis CY - Washington, DC DA - 11 May 2017 M1 - 13 PB - U.S. Department of Commerce PY - 2017 ST - Gross Domestic Product by State: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 T2 - BEA 17-22 TI - Gross Domestic Product by State: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 UR - https://apps.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2017/pdf/qgsp0517.pdf ID - 21249 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Andresen, Jeff AU - Hilberg, Steve AU - Kunkel, Ken CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center PY - 2012 SP - 18 ST - Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report TI - Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report UR - http://glisa.umich.edu/media/files/NCA/MTIT_Historical.pdf ID - 21250 ER - TY - WEB AU - Atungulu, G. R. PB - USDA Research, Education & Economics Information System PY - 2017 ST - Management of in-bin grain drying and storage systems for improved grain quality and prevention of mycotoxins TI - Management of in-bin grain drying and storage systems for improved grain quality and prevention of mycotoxins UR - https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1002599-management-of-in-bin-grain-drying-and-storage-systems-for-improved-grain-quality-and-prevention-of-mycotoxins.html ID - 21251 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Babadoost, Mohammad CY - Urbana-Champagne, IL NV - Report on Plant Disease RPD No. 950 PB - University of Illinois Extension PY - 2012 SP - 7 ST - The Fruit Rots of Pumpkin TI - The Fruit Rots of Pumpkin UR - http://extension.cropsciences.illinois.edu/fruitveg/pdfs/950_fruits_rots_pumpkin.pdf ID - 21252 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Blanco, Juan A2 - Kheradmand, Houshang AU - Babinszky, László AU - Halas, Veronika AU - Verstegen, Martin W. A. C4 - 3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a CY - Rijeka, Croatia DO - 10.5772/23840 PB - InTech PY - 2011 SP - Ch. 10 ST - Impacts of climate change on animal production and quality of animal food products T2 - Climate Change—Socioeconomic Effects TI - Impacts of climate change on animal production and quality of animal food products Y2 - 2017-09-20 ID - 21253 ER - TY - WEB AU - Cloud, Harold A. AU - Morey, R. Vance CY - St. Paul, MN PB - University of Minnesota Extension PY - 2017 ST - Management of Stored Grain with Aeration [web site] TI - Management of Stored Grain with Aeration [web site] UR - https://extension.umn.edu/corn-harvest/managing-stored-grain-aeration ID - 21254 ER - TY - RPRT AU - De Lucia, M. AU - Assennato, D. CY - Rome, Italy NV - FAO Agricultural Services Bulletin No. 93 PB - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations PY - 1994 ST - Agricultural engineering in development: Post-harvest operations and management of foodgrains TI - Agricultural engineering in development: Post-harvest operations and management of foodgrains UR - http://www.fao.org/docrep/t0522e/t0522e00.htm ID - 21255 ER - TY - WEB AU - Favis-Mortlock, D. CY - Oxford, UK PY - 2017 ST - The Soil Erosion Site: Soil Erosion by Water TI - The Soil Erosion Site: Soil Erosion by Water UR - http://soilerosion.net/water_erosion.html ID - 21256 ER - TY - WEB AU - Hurburgh, Charles CY - Ames, IA PB - Iowa State University, Extension and Outreach PY - 2016 ST - Wet Weather Creates Challenges for Harvest TI - Wet Weather Creates Challenges for Harvest UR - https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2016/09/wet-weather-creates-challenges-harvest ID - 21257 ER - TY - WEB AU - ISU CY - Ames, IA PB - Iowa State University (ISU) PY - 2017 ST - Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) TI - Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) UR - https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ ID - 21258 ER - TY - CPAPER AU - Lewis, Craig R. G. AU - Bunter, Kim L. DA - October 2010 PY - 2010 SP - 87-96 T2 - AGBU Pig Genetics Workshop TI - Heat stress: The effects of temperature on production and reproduction traits UR - http://agbu.une.edu.au/pig_genetics/pdf/2010/P12-Craig-Heat%20stress.pdf ID - 21259 ER - TY - RPRT AU - MDNR CY - St. Paul, MN PB - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources PY - 2008 SP - 114 ST - Natural Wild Rice in Minnesota TI - Natural Wild Rice in Minnesota UR - http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/fish_wildlife/wildlife/shallowlakes/natural-wild-rice-in-minnesota.pdf ID - 21260 ER - TY - WEB AU - USDA PB - USDA National Resources Conversation Service PY - 2017 ST - Climate Change: Cover Crops and Soil Health TI - Climate Change: Cover Crops and Soil Health UR - https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/national/climatechange/?cid=stelprdb1077238 ID - 21261 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Ballweg, Julie CY - Madison, WI PB - Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources PY - 2016 SP - 1 ST - Forest Economy Wisconsin TI - Forest Economy Wisconsin UR - http://dnr.wi.gov/topic/ForestBusinesses/documents/factSheets/FactSheetWisconsin.pdf ID - 21262 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - He, Hong AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Thompson, Frank R. AU - Butler, Patricia AU - Handler, Stephen AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Albrecht, Matthew AU - Blume-Weaver, Richard AU - Deizman, Paul AU - DePuy, John AU - Dijak, William D. AU - Dinkel, Gary AU - Fei, Songlin AU - Jones-Farrand, D. Todd AU - Leahy, Michael AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Nelson, Paul AU - Oberle, Brad AU - Perez, Judi AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Schneiderman, Jeffrey E. AU - Shuey, John AU - Smith, Adam B. AU - Studyvin, Charles AU - Tirpak, John M. AU - Walk, Jeffery W. AU - Wang, Wen J. AU - Watts, Laura AU - Weigel, Dale AU - Westin, Steve CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-124 PB - USDA Forest Service PY - 2014 SP - 254 ST - Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project TI - Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project UR - https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45430 ID - 21263 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Decision Innovation Solutions PB - Missouri Department of Agriculture PY - 2016 SP - 30 ST - Economic Contributions of Missouri Agriculture and Forestry TI - Economic Contributions of Missouri Agriculture and Forestry UR - http://agriculture.mo.gov/economicimpact/county-pdf/MissouriAgForestryEconomicContributionStudy.pdf ID - 21264 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Deckard, Donald L. AU - Skurla, James A. CY - St. Paul, MN PB - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources PY - 2011 SP - 18 ST - Economic Contributions of Minnesota's Forest Products Industry—2011 Edition TI - Economic Contributions of Minnesota's Forest Products Industry—2011 Edition UR - http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/um/economiccontributionMNforestproductsindustry2011.pdf ID - 21265 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Evans, Alexander M. AU - Lynch, Michael AU - Clark, Fred AU - Mickel, Genesis M. AU - Chapman, Kim AU - Tiller, Elizabeth R. AU - Haynes, Monica CY - Madison, WI PB - Forest Stewards Guild PY - 2016 SP - various ST - Economic and Ecological Effects of Forest Practices and Harvesting Constraints on Wisconsin’s Forest Resources and Economy TI - Economic and Ecological Effects of Forest Practices and Harvesting Constraints on Wisconsin’s Forest Resources and Economy UR - https://councilonforestry.wi.gov/Documents/PracticesStudy/WFPSForestStewardsGuild2016.pdf ID - 21266 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Handler, Stephen AU - Duveneck, Matthew J. AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Peters, Emily AU - Scheller, Robert M. AU - Wythers, Kirk R. AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Butler, Patricia AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Barrett, Kelly AU - Kolka, Randy AU - McQuiston, Casey AU - Palik, Brian AU - Reich, Peter B. AU - Turner, Clarence AU - White, Mark AU - Adams, Cheryl AU - D’Amato, Anthony AU - Hagell, Suzanne AU - Johnson, Patricia AU - Johnson, Rosemary AU - Larson, Mike AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Montgomery, Rebecca AU - Olson, Steve AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Rajala, Jack AU - Daley, Jad AU - Davenport, Mae AU - Emery, Marla R. AU - Fehringer, David AU - Hoving, Christopher L. AU - Johnson, Gary AU - Johnson, Lucinda AU - Neitzel, David AU - Rissman, Adena AU - Rittenhouse, Chadwick AU - Ziel, Robert CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - General Technical Report NRS-133 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2014 SP - 228 ST - Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project TI - Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project UR - https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs133.pdf ID - 21267 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Handler, Stephen AU - Duveneck, Matthew J. AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Peters, Emily AU - Scheller, Robert M. AU - Wythers, Kirk R. AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Butler, Patricia AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Eagle, Amy Clark AU - Cohen, Joshua G. AU - Corner, Rich AU - Reich, Peter B. AU - Baker, Tim AU - Chhin, Sophan AU - Clark, Eric AU - Fehringer, David AU - Fosgitt, Jon AU - Gries, James AU - Hall, Christine AU - Hall, Kimberly R. AU - Heyd, Robert AU - Hoving, Christopher L. AU - Ibáñez, Ines AU - Kuhr, Don AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Muladore, Jennifer AU - Nadelhoffer, Knute AU - Neumann, David AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Sands, Matt AU - Swaty, Randy AU - Wonch, Leiloni AU - Daley, Jad AU - Davenport, Mae AU - Emery, Marla R. AU - Johnson, Gary AU - Johnson, Lucinda AU - Neitzel, David AU - Rissman, Adena AU - Rittenhouse, Chadwick AU - Ziel, Robert CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - General Technical Report NRS-129 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2014 SP - 229 ST - Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project TI - Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project UR - https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45688 ID - 21268 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Henderson, James E. AU - Munn, Ian A. CY - Springfield, IL PB - Illinois Forestry Development Council PY - 2012 SP - 22 ST - Forestry in Illinois—The Impact of the Forest Products Industry on the Illinois Economy: An Input-Output Analysis TI - Forestry in Illinois—The Impact of the Forest Products Industry on the Illinois Economy: An Input-Output Analysis UR - http://ifdc.nres.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/illinois-forest-products-impact_2012.pdf ID - 21269 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Janowiak, Maria K. AU - Iverson, Louis R. AU - Mladenoff, David J. AU - Peters, Emily AU - Wythers, Kirk R. AU - Xi, Weimin AU - Brandt, Leslie A. AU - Butler, Patricia R. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Parker, Linda R. AU - Amman, Amy J. AU - Bogaczyk, Brian AU - Handler, Christine AU - Lesch, Ellen AU - Reich, Peter B. AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Khanal, Sami AU - Liu, Feng AU - Bal, Tara AU - Bronson, Dustin AU - Burton, Andrew AU - Ferris, Jim AU - Fosgitt, Jon AU - Hagan, Shawn AU - Johnston, Erin AU - Kane, Evan AU - Matula, Colleen AU - O’Connor, Ryan AU - Higgins, Dale AU - St. Pierre, Matt AU - Daley, Jad AU - Davenport, Mae AU - Emery, Marla R. AU - Fehringer, David AU - Hoving, Christopher L. AU - Johnson, Gary AU - Neitzel, David AU - Notaro, Michael AU - Rissman, Adena AU - Rittenhouse, Chadwick AU - Ziel, Robert CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-136 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2014 SP - 247 ST - Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis for Northern Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project TI - Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis for Northern Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project UR - https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs136.pdf ID - 21270 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Leatherberry, Earl C. AU - Moser, W. Keith AU - Perry, Charles AU - Woodall, Christopher AU - Jepsen, Edward AU - Pennington, Steve AU - Flickinger, Aron. CY - St. Paul, MN NV - Resource Bulletin NC-266A PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station PY - 2006 SP - 84 ST - Iowa’s Forests 1999-2003 (Part A) TI - Iowa’s Forests 1999-2003 (Part A) UR - https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/rb/rb_nc266a.pdf ID - 21271 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Leefers, Larry A. CY - Lansing, MI PB - Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Forest Resource Division PY - 2015 SP - 32 ST - Forest Products Industries’ Economic Contributions to Michigan’s Economy in 2013 TI - Forest Products Industries’ Economic Contributions to Michigan’s Economy in 2013 UR - https://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/FPIECME2013-Leefers_513869_7.pdf ID - 21272 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Marcouiller, Dave AU - Mace, Terry CY - Madison, WI NV - G3694 RP-10/05 PB - University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension PY - 2005 SP - 43 ST - Forests and Regional Development: Economic Impacts of Woodland Use For Recreation and Timber in Wisconsin TI - Forests and Regional Development: Economic Impacts of Woodland Use For Recreation and Timber in Wisconsin UR - http://learningstore.uwex.edu/Assets/pdfs/G3694.pdf ID - 21273 ER - TY - RPRT AU - McConnell, Eric CY - Columbus, OH PB - Ohio State University Extension PY - 2012 SN - Fact Sheet F-80 SP - 8 ST - Ohio's Forest Economy TI - Ohio's Forest Economy UR - https://ohioline.osu.edu/factsheet/F-80 ID - 21274 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Settle, Jeffrey AU - Gonso, Chris AU - Seidl, Mike CY - Indianapolis, IN NV - (Update of the 2010 Hoover/Settle Report) PB - Indiana State Department of Agriculture PY - 2016 SP - 25 ST - Indiana’s Hardwood Industry: Its Economic Impact TI - Indiana’s Hardwood Industry: Its Economic Impact UR - https://in.gov/isda/files/Indiana_Hardwoods_and_Their_Economic_Impact.pdf ID - 21275 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Stults, M. AU - Petersen, S. AU - Bell, J. AU - Baule, W. AU - Nasser, E. AU - Gibbons, E. AU - Fougerat, M. CY - Duluth, MN PB - 1854 Treaty Authority PY - 2016 SP - 146 ST - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan: 1854 Ceded Territory Including the Bois Forte, Fond du Lac, and Grand Portage Reservations TI - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan: 1854 Ceded Territory Including the Bois Forte, Fond du Lac, and Grand Portage Reservations UR - http://www.1854treatyauthority.org/images/ClimateAdaptationPlan_Final-July_2016-optimized(1).pdf ID - 21276 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Parker, Linda AU - Mladenoff, David AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Butler, Patricia AU - St. Pierre, Matt AU - Prasad, Anantha AU - Matthews, Stephen AU - Peters, Matthew AU - Higgins, Dale AU - Dorland, Avery CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-82 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2011 SP - 142 ST - Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in Northern Wisconsin TI - Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in Northern Wisconsin UR - https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs82.pdf ID - 21277 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Brandt, Leslie AU - Butler, Patricia AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle AU - Derby Lewis, Abigail AU - Hall, Kimbery AU - Fahey, Robert T. AU - Scott, Lydia AU - Kerber, Angela AU - Miesbauer, Jason W. AU - Darling, Lindsay CY - Newtown Square, PA NV - Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-87-2 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2016 SP - 161 ST - Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd ed TI - Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd ed UR - https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs87-2.pdf ID - 21278 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Kousky, Carolyn AU - Olmstead, Sheila AU - Walls, Margaret AU - Stern, Adam AU - Macauley, Molly CY - Washington, DC NV - RFF Report PB - Resources for the Future PY - 2011 SP - 72 ST - The Role of Land Use in Adaptation to Increased Precipitation and Flooding: A Case Study in Wisconsin's Lower Fox River Basin TI - The Role of Land Use in Adaptation to Increased Precipitation and Flooding: A Case Study in Wisconsin's Lower Fox River Basin UR - http://www.rff.org/files/sharepoint/WorkImages/Download/RFF-Rpt-Kousky%20etal%20GreatLakes%20(2).pdf ID - 21279 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Mitsch, William J. AU - Gosselink, James G. C4 - b4bf88f4-7c83-4330-8721-28e3393f1e2b CY - Hoboken, NJ ET - 5th PB - Wiley PY - 2015 SN - 978-1-118-67682-0 SP - 701-702 ST - Appendix A. Wetland losses by state in the United States, 1780s–1980s T2 - Wetlands TI - Appendix A. Wetland losses by state in the United States, 1780s–1980s ID - 21280 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Taylor, William W. A2 - Lynch, Abigail J. A2 - Leonard, Nancy J. AU - Brenden, Travis O. AU - Brown, Russell W. AU - Ebener, Mark P. AU - Reid, Kevin AU - Newcomb, Tammy J. C4 - 46bc1606-306e-4205-b2b7-46f87c4e14ee CY - Lansing, MI ET - 2nd PB - Michigan State University Press PY - 2013 SN - 978-1611860245 SP - 339-397 ST - Great Lakes commercial fisheries: Historical overview and prognoses for the future T2 - Great Lakes Fisheries Policy and Management: A Binational Perspective TI - Great Lakes commercial fisheries: Historical overview and prognoses for the future ID - 21282 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Larsen, Angela AU - Derby Lewis, Abigail AU - Lyandres, Olga AU - Chen, Tingqiao AU - Frank, Ken PB - Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) PY - 2014 SP - 18 ST - Developing a Community of Climate‐Informed Conservation Practitioners to Protect a Priority Landscape in Illinois and Wisconsin TI - Developing a Community of Climate‐Informed Conservation Practitioners to Protect a Priority Landscape in Illinois and Wisconsin UR - http://glisa.umich.edu/media/files/projectreports/GLISA_ProjRep_ILWI_Ravines.pdf ID - 21283 ER - TY - RPRT AU - McDermid, J. L. AU - Dickin, S. K. AU - Winsborough, C. L. AU - Switzman, H. AU - Barr, S. AU - Gleeson, J. A. AU - Krantzberg, G. AU - Gray, P. A. N1 - ISBN 987-1-77283-000-2 NV - Prepared Jointly by the Ontario Climate Consortium and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry to Advise Annex 9—Climate Change Impacts Under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, October 2015 PY - 2015 RP - ISBN 987-1-77283-000-2 ST - State of Climate Change Science in the Great Lakes Basin: A Focus on Climatological, Hydrological, and Ecological Effects TI - State of Climate Change Science in the Great Lakes Basin: A Focus on Climatological, Hydrological, and Ecological Effects UR - https://binational.net//wp-content/uploads/2016/09/OCC_GreatLakes_Report_ExecSummary%20ENGLISH.pdf ID - 21284 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Norton, Richard K. AU - David, Nina P. AU - Buckman, Stephen AU - Koman, Patricia D. DO - 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.11.049 PY - 2018 SP - 183-203 ST - Overlooking the coast: Limited local planning for coastal area management along Michigan’s Great Lakes T2 - Land Use Policy TI - Overlooking the coast: Limited local planning for coastal area management along Michigan’s Great Lakes VL - 71 ID - 21285 ER - TY - PRESS AU - Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute CY - Madison, WI PB - University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute PY - 2013 ST - Great Lakes and Wisconsin Water Facts: Great Lakes and Fresh Water TI - Great Lakes and Wisconsin Water Facts: Great Lakes and Fresh Water UR - http://www.seagrant.wisc.edu/Home/AboutUsSection/PressRoom/Details.aspx?PostID=796 ID - 21286 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Cameron, Lorraine AU - Ferguson, Aaron AU - Walker, Robert AU - Briley, Laura AU - Brown, Daniel CY - Lansing, MI PB - Michigan Department of Health & Human Services PY - 2015 SP - 97 ST - Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan's Health TI - Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan's Health UR - http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mdhhs/MI_Climate_and_Health_Profile_517517_7.pdf ID - 21287 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) PB - CSTE PY - 2016 SP - 12 ST - Heat-Related Illness Syndrome Query: A Guidance Document for Implementing Heat-Related Illness Syndromic Surveillance in Public Health Practice TI - Heat-Related Illness Syndrome Query: A Guidance Document for Implementing Heat-Related Illness Syndromic Surveillance in Public Health Practice UR - http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/pdfs/pdfs2/CSTE_Heat_Syndrome_Case_Defi.pdf ID - 21288 ER - TY - RPRT AU - BRACE-Illinois CY - Chicago, IL PB - University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health PY - 2016 SP - 15 ST - Climate and Health in Illinois TI - Climate and Health in Illinois UR - http://www.dph.illinois.gov/sites/default/files/publications/publicationsoprclimatehealthreport.pdf ID - 21289 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Most Lyme disease cases in the Midwestern United States are reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In recent years, however, a widening geographic extent of Lyme disease has been noted with evidence of expansion eastwards into Michigan and neighboring states with historically low incidence rates.Methods.We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, entering them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial focal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. We compared the distribution of human cases with recent Ixodes scapularis tick distribution studies.Results.Lyme disease cases in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan expanded more than 5-fold over the study period. Although increases were seen throughout the Upper Peninsula, the Lower Peninsula particularly expanded along the Indiana border north along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Human cases corresponded to a simultaneous expansion in established I scapularis tick populations.Conclusions.The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Michigan between 2000 and 2014, particularly northward along the Lake Michigan shore. If such dynamic trends continue, Michigan—and possibly neighboring areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario, Canada—can expect a continued increase in Lyme disease cases. AU - Lantos, Paul M. AU - Tsao, Jean AU - Nigrovic, Lise E. AU - Auwaerter, Paul G. AU - Fowler, Vance G. AU - Ruffin, Felicia AU - Foster, Erik AU - Hickling, Graham DO - 10.1093/ofid/ofw269 IS - 1 PY - 2017 SP - Art. ofw269 ST - Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000–2014 T2 - Open Forum Infectious Diseases TI - Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000–2014 VL - 4 ID - 21290 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Minnesota Department of Health CY - St. Paul, MN PB - Minnesota Department of Health PY - 2015 SP - 100 ST - Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Health & Well-Being of Minnesotans TI - Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Health & Well-Being of Minnesotans UR - http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/docs/mnprofile2015.pdf ID - 21292 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rajkovich, Nicholas B. DO - 10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 PY - 2016 SP - 81-101 ST - A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio T2 - Michigan Journal of Sustainability TI - A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio VL - 4 ID - 21293 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Changnon, Stanley IS - 3-4 PY - 2009 SP - 181-190 ST - Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states T2 - Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science TI - Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states UR - http://ilacadofsci.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/102-17MS2819-print.pdf VL - 102 ID - 21296 ER - TY - PRESS AU - City of Chicago CY - Chicago, IL PB - City of Chicago Department of Transportation PY - 2012 ST - City Unveils “Greenest Street in America” in Pilsen Neighborhood TI - City Unveils “Greenest Street in America” in Pilsen Neighborhood UR - https://www.cityofchicago.org/city/en/depts/cdot/provdrs/conservation_outreachgreenprograms/news/2012/oct/cdot_opens_the_pilsensustainablestreet.html ID - 21297 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) CY - Chicago, IL PB - CMAP PY - 2013 ST - Climate Adaptation Guidebook for Municipalities in the Chicago Region TI - Climate Adaptation Guidebook for Municipalities in the Chicago Region UR - http://www.cmap.illinois.gov/documents/10180/14136/FY13-0119%20Climate%20Adaptation%20toolkit.pdf/fa5e3867-8278-4867-841a-aad4e090847a ID - 21298 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Cleveland CY - Cleveland, OH PB - Cleveland Forest Coalition PY - 2015 SP - 57 ST - The Cleveland Tree Plan TI - The Cleveland Tree Plan UR - http://www.city.cleveland.oh.us/sites/default/files/forms_publications/ClevelandTreePlan.pdf ID - 21299 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Delta Institute CY - Chicago, IL PB - Delta Institute PY - 2015 SP - 70 ST - Green Infrastructure Designs: Scalable Solutions to Local Challenges TI - Green Infrastructure Designs: Scalable Solutions to Local Challenges UR - http://delta-institute.org/delta/wp-content/uploads/Green-Infrastructure-Designs-July-2015.pdf ID - 21300 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Ducks Unlimited CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - Ducks Unlimited Great Lakes/Atlantic Region PY - 2016 SP - 2 ST - Missouri State Conservation Report TI - Missouri State Conservation Report UR - http://www.ducks.org/missouri/missouri-conservation-projects ID - 21301 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC NV - EPA 833-R-16-006 PB - U.S. EPA, Office of Wastewater Management PY - 2016 SP - 92 ST - Report to Congress: Combined Sewer Overflows into the Great Lakes Basin TI - Report to Congress: Combined Sewer Overflows into the Great Lakes Basin UR - https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-05/documents/gls_cso_report_to_congress_-_4-12-2016.pdf ID - 21302 ER - TY - JOUR AU - JOC PY - 2013 SN - 15423867 ST - High water forces Upper Mississippi River closure T2 - Journal of Commerce TI - High water forces Upper Mississippi River closure VL - 4 June ID - 21303 ER - TY - JOUR AU - JOC PY - 2013 SN - 15423867 ST - North American rail traffic slips T2 - Journal of Commerce TI - North American rail traffic slips VL - 25 Apr ID - 21304 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Kenward, Alyson AU - Zenes, Nicole AU - Bronzan, James AU - Brady, Jennifer AU - Shah, Kasturi CY - Princeton, NJ PB - Climate Central PY - 2016 SP - 12 ST - Overflow: Climate Change, Heavy Rain, and Sewage T2 - States at Risk TI - Overflow: Climate Change, Heavy Rain, and Sewage UR - http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/Overflow_sewagereport_update.pdf ID - 21305 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Leard, Benjamin AU - Roth, Kevin CY - Washington DC NV - RFF DP 15-19-REV2 PB - Resources for the Future PY - 2017 SP - 57 ST - Voluntary Exposure Benefits and the Costs of Climate Change T2 - RFF Discussion Paper TI - Voluntary Exposure Benefits and the Costs of Climate Change UR - http://www.rff.org/files/document/file/RFF-WP-15-19-REV2.pdf ID - 21306 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Lichten, Nathaniel AU - Nassauer, Joan Iverson AU - Dewar, Margaret AU - Sampson, Natalie R. AU - Webster, Noah J. CY - Ann Arbor, MI NV - NEW-GI White Paper No. 1 PB - University of Michigan Water Center PY - 2016 ST - Green Infrastructure on Vacant Land: Achieving Social and Environmental Benefits in Legacy Cities T2 - Neighborhood, Environment, and Water research collaborations for Green Infrastructure (NEW-GI) TI - Green Infrastructure on Vacant Land: Achieving Social and Environmental Benefits in Legacy Cities UR - https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52a213fce4b0a5794c59856f/t/58d42d0f725e25f7c64240e3/1490300177284/Green+Infrastructure+on+Vacant+Land.pdf ID - 21307 ER - TY - WEB AU - City of Minneapolis CY - Minneapolis, MN PB - Public Works PY - 2009 ST - City of Minneapolis Tree Cell Installation—Marq2 Project TI - City of Minneapolis Tree Cell Installation—Marq2 Project UR - http://www.ci.minneapolis.mn.us/publicworks/stormwater/green/stormwater_green-initiatives_marq2-tree-install ID - 21308 ER - TY - WEB AU - Metropolitan Sewer District CY - St. Louis, MO PB - MSD Project Clear PY - 2017 ST - Rainscaping TI - Rainscaping UR - http://www.projectclearstl.org/get-the-rain-out/rainscaping/ ID - 21309 ER - TY - WEB AU - NOAA NCEI CY - Asheville, NC PB - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information PY - 2018 ST - Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page] TI - Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page] UR - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2017 ID - 21310 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Ozaukee Washington Land Trust CY - West Bend, WI PB - Ozaukee Washington Land Trust PY - 2016 SP - 8 ST - Open Spaces: 2016 Annual Report TI - Open Spaces: 2016 Annual Report ID - 21311 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Theising, Andrew A2 - Jones, E. Terrence AU - Posey, John C4 - d9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556 CY - St. Louis, MO PB - Reedy Press PY - 2016 SN - 9781681060194 ST - St. Louis in the Anthropocene: Responding to Global Environmental Change T2 - St. Louis Currents: The Fifth Edition TI - St. Louis in the Anthropocene: Responding to Global Environmental Change ID - 21312 ER - TY - WEB AU - Smith, Alexander AU - Chuck, Elizabeth AU - Gostanian, Ali CY - New York PB - NBC News PY - 2015 ST - Swollen Midwest Rivers Bring Transportation to Standstill TI - Swollen Midwest Rivers Bring Transportation to Standstill UR - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/missouri-illinois-face-slow-motion-disaster-swollen-rivers-rise-n488376 ID - 21313 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Trice, Amy CY - Washington, DC PB - American Rivers PY - 2016 SP - 32 ST - Daylighting Streams: Breathing Life into Urban Streams and Communities TI - Daylighting Streams: Breathing Life into Urban Streams and Communities UR - http://americanrivers.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AmericanRivers_daylighting-streams-report.pdf ID - 21314 ER - TY - WEB AU - Workboat Staff PY - 2017 ST - Portion of Upper Mississippi River Closed Near St. Louis TI - Portion of Upper Mississippi River Closed Near St. Louis UR - https://www.workboat.com/news/coastal-inland-waterways/portion-upper-mississippi-river-closed-near-st-louis/ ID - 21315 ER - TY - WEB AU - Moore, Kirk PB - WorkBoat.com PY - 2016 ST - High River Water Creates Navigation Turmoil TI - High River Water Creates Navigation Turmoil UR - https://www.workboat.com/archive/high-river-water-creates-navigation-turmoil/ ID - 21316 ER - TY - WEB AU - Workboat Staff PB - WorkBoat.com PY - 2015 ST - Flooding Delays Barge Traffic TI - Flooding Delays Barge Traffic UR - https://www.workboat.com/news/coastal-inland-waterways/flooding-delays-barge-traffic/ ID - 21317 ER - TY - WEB AU - DuPont, Dale K. PB - WorkBoat.com PY - 2013 ST - High water closes river near St. Louis TI - High water closes river near St. Louis UR - https://www.workboat.com/archive/high-water-closes-river-near-st-louis/ ID - 21318 ER - TY - WEB AU - Workboat Staff PB - WorkBoat.com PY - various ST - Aggregation of articles documenting Mississippi River flood-related closures TI - Aggregation of articles documenting Mississippi River flood-related closures UR - https://www.workboat.com/?s=mississippi+river+closed+flood ID - 21319 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We present a hedonic framework to estimate US households’ preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor a daily average temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, that they will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and that damages increase less than linearly over extreme cold. These preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. Changes in climate amenities under business-as-usual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1%–4% of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant. AU - Albouy, David AU - Graf, Walter AU - Kellogg, Ryan AU - Wolff, Hendrik DO - 10.1086/684573 IS - 1 KW - H49,I39,Q54,R10 PY - 2016 SP - 205-246 ST - Climate amenities, climate change, and American quality of life T2 - Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists TI - Climate amenities, climate change, and American quality of life VL - 3 ID - 21320 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. EPA, Office of Water PY - 2014 SP - 120 ST - Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans TI - Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans UR - https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-09/documents/being_prepared_workbook_508.pdf ID - 21322 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The development of climate change policy in cities has been closely tied to the efforts of particular individuals, policy entrepreneurs. However, there is still much we do not know about the conditions underlying the emergence and spread of policy entrepreneurship both generally and in support of climate change policies specifically. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data from 371 mid-sized cities throughout the Great Lakes region of the USA. Building upon scholarship from the public choice literature, we explore the role that fragmentation, that is, the number of independent but connected governmental units both within the city itself as well as in the city’s regional metropolitan or micropolitan area play in explaining the emergence of climate entrepreneurship. We show that not only does fragmentation at both of these levels help predict the emergence of climate change entrepreneurs in individual cities, but also exchanges between these levels could drive the rapid development of policy entrepreneurship and related policy innovations throughout urban systems. AU - Kalafatis, Scott E. AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen DA - August 01 DO - 10.1007/s10113-017-1154-0 IS - 6 M3 - journal article PY - 2017 SN - 1436-378X SP - 1791-1799 ST - The emergence of climate change policy entrepreneurs in urban regions T2 - Regional Environmental Change TI - The emergence of climate change policy entrepreneurs in urban regions VL - 17 ID - 21323 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Norton-Smith, Kathryn AU - Lynn, Kathy AU - Chief, Karletta AU - Cozzetto, Karen AU - Donatuto, Jamie AU - Redsteer, Margaret Hiza AU - Kruger, Linda E. AU - Maldonado, Julie AU - Viles, Carson AU - Whyte, Kyle P. CY - Portland, OR NV - Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-944 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station PY - 2016 SP - 136 ST - Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences TI - Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences UR - https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53156 ID - 21324 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Sinha, Paramita AU - Cropper, Maureen L. CY - Cambridge, MA DO - 10.3386/w18756 NV - NBER Working Paper No. 18756 PB - National Bureau of Economic Research PY - 2013 SP - 49 ST - The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions TI - The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions ID - 21325 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Vinyeta, Kirsten AU - Lynn, Kathy CY - Portland, OR NV - General Technical Report PNW-GTR-879 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture Pacific Northwest Research Station PY - 2013 SP - 37 ST - Exploring the Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Climate Change Initiatives TI - Exploring the Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Climate Change Initiatives UR - https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr879.pdf ID - 21326 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC NV - EPA 430‐R‐17‐001 PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PY - 2017 SP - 271 ST - Multi-Model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment TI - Multi-Model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment UR - https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095 ID - 21365 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Chapra, Steven C. AU - Boehlert, Brent AU - Fant, Charles AU - Bierman, Victor J. AU - Henderson, Jim AU - Mills, David AU - Mas, Diane M. L. AU - Rennels, Lisa AU - Jantarasami, Lesley AU - Martinich, Jeremy AU - Strzepek, Kenneth M. AU - Paerl, Hans W. DA - 2017/08/15 DO - 10.1021/acs.est.7b01498 IS - 16 PY - 2017 SN - 0013-936X SP - 8933-8943 ST - Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment T2 - Environmental Science & Technology TI - Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment VL - 51 ID - 21473 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - USGCRP CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0J964J6 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SP - 470 ST - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I ID - 21557 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - 29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0N29V45 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 6 SP - 185-206 ST - Temperature changes in the United States T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Temperature changes in the United States ID - 21564 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Leung, L.R. AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Waliser, D.E. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0H993CC PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 7 SP - 207-230 ST - Precipitation change in the United States T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Precipitation change in the United States ID - 21565 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Wehner, M.F. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. C4 - a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 8 SP - 231-256 ST - Droughts, floods, and wildfires T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Droughts, floods, and wildfires ID - 21566 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Hibbard, K.A. AU - Hoffman, F.M. AU - Huntzinger, D. AU - West, T.O. C4 - 1b0ce605-0f6c-4e1f-8fea-71e87cb4304f CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0416V6X PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 10 SP - 277-302 ST - Changes in land cover and terrestrial biogeochemistry T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Changes in land cover and terrestrial biogeochemistry ID - 21568 ER - TY - RPRT AU - USGCRP CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SP - 9 ST - Regional Engagement Workshop Summary Report: Midwest Region TI - Regional Engagement Workshop Summary Report: Midwest Region UR - http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/REW_Midwest.pdf ID - 21684 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bottero, Alessandra AU - D'Amato, Anthony W. AU - Palik, Brian J. AU - Bradford, John B. AU - Fraver, Shawn AU - Battaglia, Mike A. AU - Asherin, Lance A. DO - 10.1111/1365-2664.12847 IS - 6 KW - climate change adaptation drought impacts ecosystem services Pinus ponderosa Pinus resinosa semi-arid forests temperate forests thinning tree population density PY - 2017 SN - 1365-2664 SP - 1605-1614 ST - Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought T2 - Journal of Applied Ecology TI - Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought VL - 54 ID - 22010 ER - TY - RPRT AU - National Agricultural Statistics Service M1 - Special Studies Part 1 NV - AC-12-SS-1 PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture PY - 2014 SP - 249 ST - 2012 Census of Agriculture: 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey TI - 2012 Census of Agriculture: 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey UR - https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Farm_and_Ranch_Irrigation_Survey/ VL - 3 ID - 22641 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Vogel, Jason AU - Carney, Karen M. AU - Smith, Joel B. AU - Herrick, Charles AU - Stults, Missy AU - O’Grady, Megan AU - Juliana, Alexis St. AU - Hosterman, Heather AU - Giangola, Lorine CY - Detroit KW - urban climate change adaptation PB - Kresge Foundation PY - 2016 ST - Climate Adaptation—The State of Practice in U.S. Communities TI - Climate Adaptation—The State of Practice in U.S. Communities UR - http://kresge.org/sites/default/files/library/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-us-communities-full-report.pdf ID - 22874 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest. AU - Hatfield, J. L. AU - Wright-Morton, Lois AU - Hall, Beth DA - June 12 DO - 10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x IS - 1-2 M3 - journal article PY - 2018 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 263-275 ST - Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies T2 - Climatic Change TI - Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies VL - 146 ID - 23530 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Anderson, Terry AU - Hatfield, Jerry AU - Swanston, Christopher AU - Janowiak, Maria AU - Steele, Rachel F. AU - Hempel, Jon AU - Bochicchio, Juliet AU - Hall, Wendy AU - Cole, Marlene AU - Hestvik, Sharon AU - Whitaker, John PB - U.S. Department of Agriculture PY - 2015 SP - 55 ST - USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies TI - USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies UR - https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/content/usda-midwest-and-northern-forests-regional-climate-hub-assessment-climate-change ID - 23616 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Vins, Holly AU - Bell, Jesse AU - Saha, Shubhayu AU - Hess, Jeremy DO - 10.3390/ijerph121013251 IS - 10 PY - 2015 SN - 1660-4601 SP - 13251 ST - The mental health outcomes of drought: A systematic review and causal process diagram T2 - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health TI - The mental health outcomes of drought: A systematic review and causal process diagram VL - 12 ID - 23879 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question. AU - Fei, Songlin AU - Desprez, Johanna M. AU - Potter, Kevin M. AU - Jo, Insu AU - Knott, Jonathan A. AU - Oswalt, Christopher M. DO - 10.1126/sciadv.1603055 IS - 5 PY - 2017 SP - e1603055 ST - Divergence of species responses to climate change T2 - Science Advances TI - Divergence of species responses to climate change VL - 3 ID - 25153 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will increase suitable habitat and biomass for many temperate species. Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions. However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnerability across the region. Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions. Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Considering these potential forest vulnerabilities and opportunities is a critical step in making climate-informed decisions in long-term conservation planning. AU - Swanston, Chris AU - Brandt, Leslie A. AU - Janowiak, Maria K. AU - Handler, Stephen D. AU - Butler-Leopold, Patricia AU - Iverson, Louis AU - Thompson III, Frank R. AU - Ontl, Todd A. AU - Shannon, P. Danielle DA - January 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-017-2065-2 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2018 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 103-116 ST - Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change T2 - Climatic Change TI - Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change VL - 146 ID - 25180 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. AU - Griscom, Bronson W. AU - Adams, Justin AU - Ellis, Peter W. AU - Houghton, Richard A. AU - Lomax, Guy AU - Miteva, Daniela A. AU - Schlesinger, William H. AU - Shoch, David AU - Siikamäki, Juha V. AU - Smith, Pete AU - Woodbury, Peter AU - Zganjar, Chris AU - Blackman, Allen AU - Campari, João AU - Conant, Richard T. AU - Delgado, Christopher AU - Elias, Patricia AU - Gopalakrishna, Trisha AU - Hamsik, Marisa R. AU - Herrero, Mario AU - Kiesecker, Joseph AU - Landis, Emily AU - Laestadius, Lars AU - Leavitt, Sara M. AU - Minnemeyer, Susan AU - Polasky, Stephen AU - Potapov, Peter AU - Putz, Francis E. AU - Sanderman, Jonathan AU - Silvius, Marcel AU - Wollenberg, Eva AU - Fargione, Joseph DO - 10.1073/pnas.1710465114 IS - 44 PY - 2017 SP - 11645-11650 ST - Natural climate solutions T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Natural climate solutions VL - 114 ID - 25724 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Singh, Vijay P. A2 - Xu, Y. Jun AU - Takle, Eugene S. AU - Anderson, Chris AU - Jha, Manoj AU - Gassman, Philip W. C4 - 08a5617e-0a70-464a-acca-2fa167c19980 CY - Highlands Ranch, CO PB - Water Resources Publications LLC PY - 2006 SN - ISBN-13: 978-1-887201-46-9 ISBN-10: 1-887201-46-7 SP - 135-142 ST - Upper Mississippi River Basin Modeling Systems Part 4: Climate change impacts on flow and water quality T2 - Coastal Hydrology and Processes TI - Upper Mississippi River Basin Modeling Systems Part 4: Climate change impacts on flow and water quality ID - 25924 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Ecosystem stability in variable environments depends on the diversity of form and function of the constituent species. Species phenotypes and ecologies are the product of evolution, and the evolutionary history represented by co-occurring species has been shown to be an important predictor of ecosystem function. If phylogenetic distance is a surrogate for ecological differences, then greater evolutionary diversity should buffer ecosystems against environmental variation and result in greater ecosystem stability. We calculated both abundance-weighted and unweighted phylogenetic measures of plant community diversity for a long-term biodiversity–ecosystem function experiment at Cedar Creek, Minnesota, USA. We calculated a detrended measure of stability in aboveground biomass production in experimental plots and showed that phylogenetic relatedness explained variation in stability. Our results indicate that communities where species are evenly and distantly related to one another are more stable compared to communities where phylogenetic relationships are more clumped. This result could be explained by a phylogenetic sampling effect, where some lineages show greater stability in productivity compared to other lineages, and greater evolutionary distances reduce the chance of sampling only unstable groups. However, we failed to find evidence for similar stabilities among closely related species. Alternatively, we found evidence that plot biomass variance declined with increasing phylogenetic distances, and greater evolutionary distances may represent species that are ecologically different (phylogenetic complementarity). Accounting for evolutionary relationships can reveal how diversity in form and function may affect stability. AU - Cadotte, Marc W. AU - Dinnage, Russell AU - Tilman, David DO - 10.1890/11-0426.1 IS - sp8 PY - 2012 SP - S223-S233 ST - Phylogenetic diversity promotes ecosystem stability T2 - Ecology TI - Phylogenetic diversity promotes ecosystem stability VL - 93 ID - 25925 ER - TY - THES A3 - Lemos, Maria Carmen AU - Barclay, Pamela AU - Bastoni, Cara AU - Eisenhauer, David AU - Hassan, Masooma AU - Lopez, Melody AU - Mekias, Leila AU - Ramachandran, Sundeep AU - Stock, Ryan CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - University of Michigan PY - 2013 SP - 99 ST - Climate Change Adaptation in Great Lakes Cities T2 - Natural Resources and Environment TI - Climate Change Adaptation in Great Lakes Cities UR - http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/97435 VL - M.Sc. project ID - 25926 ER - TY - JOUR AB - [This study focuses on mental health and psychosocial distress sequelae of Hurricane Katrina cataclysm among survivors. The purpose of this article is to: (1) assess the variation in psychosocial distress among the survivors of Katrina by socio-demographic, structural and situational factors; (2) determine if there are significant racial and gender differences in the extent of psychological stress, especially between Black and White, male and female survivors; and (3) to evaluate the influence of resource loss or financial burden imposed, social support, and perceived victimization on psychosocial distress among survivors. The Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey data collected in 2005 and 2006 from a representative (random) sample of Katrina survivors are used. Among the results, significant racial differences were found in psychological impacts including reported symptoms of sleeplessness, anxiety, depression, and worries about the future. In a series of multivariate analyses including factor analysis and OLS regression models, residency in Orleans parish prior to the storm, older age, female gender, having dependent children, unemployment, extent of property damage, and financial impacts sustained consistently predict psychological distress among the survivors. The theoretical, methodological, and applied policy implications of these findings are discussed.] AU - Adeola, Francis O. C1 - Full publication date: Winter 2009 IS - 2 PY - 2009 SN - 10744827, 22040919 SP - 195-210 ST - Mental health & psychosocial distress sequelae of Katrina: An empirical study of survivors T2 - Human Ecology Review TI - Mental health & psychosocial distress sequelae of Katrina: An empirical study of survivors UR - http://www.jstor.org/stable/24707543 VL - 16 ID - 25927 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Abel, David AU - Holloway, Tracey AU - Harkey, Monica AU - Rrushaj, Arber AU - Brinkman, Greg AU - Duran, Phillip AU - Janssen, Mark AU - Denholm, Paul DA - 2018/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.049 KW - Solar energy Air quality Particulate matter PM Electricity Renewable energy Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) GridView Co-benefits Public health Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT) PY - 2018 SN - 1352-2310 SP - 65-74 ST - Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States T2 - Atmospheric Environment TI - Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States VL - 175 ID - 26551 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Development of extension and outreach that effectively engage farmers in climate change adaptation and/or mitigation activities can be informed by an improved understanding of farmers' perspectives on climate change and related impacts. This research employed latent class analysis (LCA) to analyze data from a survey of 4,778 farmers from 11 US Corn Belt states. The research focused on two related research questions: (1) to what degree do farmers differ on key measures of beliefs about climate change, experience with extreme weather, perceived risks to agriculture, efficacy, and level of support for public and private adaptive and mitigative action; and (2) are there potential areas of common ground among farmers? Results indicate that farmers have highly heterogeneous perspectives, and six distinct classes of farmers are identified. We label these as the following: the concerned (14%), the uneasy (25%), the uncertain (25%), the unconcerned (13%), the confident (18%), and the detached (5%). These groups of farmers differ primarily in terms of beliefs about climate change, the degree to which they had experienced extreme weather, and risk perceptions. Despite substantial differences on these variables, areas of similarity were discerned on variables measuring farmers' (1) confidence that they will be able to deal with increases in weather variability and (2) support for public and private efforts to help farmers adapt to increased weather variability. These results can inform segmented approaches to outreach that target subpopulations of farmers as well as broader engagement strategies that would reach wider populations. Further, findings suggest that strategies with specific reference to climate change might be most effective in engaging the subpopulations of farmers who believe that climate change is occurring and a threat, but that use of less charged terms such as weather variability would likely be more effective with a broader range of farmers. Outreach efforts that (1) appeal to farmers' problem solving capacity and (2) employ terms such as “weather variability” instead of more charged terms such as “climate change” are more likely to be effective with a wider farmer audience. AU - Arbuckle, J.G. AU - Hobbs, J. AU - Loy, A. AU - Morton, L.W. AU - Prokopy, L.S. AU - Tyndall, J. DA - November 1, 2014 DO - 10.2489/jswc.69.6.505 IS - 6 PY - 2014 SP - 505-516 ST - Understanding Corn Belt farmer perspectives on climate change to inform engagement strategies for adaptation and mitigation T2 - Journal of Soil and Water Conservation TI - Understanding Corn Belt farmer perspectives on climate change to inform engagement strategies for adaptation and mitigation VL - 69 ID - 26552 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Asam, Susan AU - Spindler, Dana AU - Julius, Susan AU - Beierwagen, Brita CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency PY - 2016 SN - EPA/600/R-15/087F ST - Stormwater Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes Regions TI - Stormwater Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes Regions UR - https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm?deid=310045 ID - 26553 ER - TY - NEWS AU - Associated Press DA - May 2 PY - 2017 ST - Amtrak suspends rail service across Missouri TI - Amtrak suspends rail service across Missouri UR - http://fox2now.com/2017/05/02/amtrack-suspends-rail-service-across-missouri/ ID - 26554 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Brink, Ebba AU - Aalders, Theodor AU - Ádám, Dóra AU - Feller, Robert AU - Henselek, Yuki AU - Hoffmann, Alexander AU - Ibe, Karin AU - Matthey-Doret, Aude AU - Meyer, Moritz AU - Negrut, N. Lucian AU - Rau, Anna-Lena AU - Riewerts, Bente AU - von Schuckmann, Lukas AU - Törnros, Sara AU - von Wehrden, Henrik AU - Abson, David J. AU - Wamsler, Christine DA - 2016/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003 KW - Disaster risk reduction Ecosystem-based management Ecosystem services cascade model Green and blue infrastructure Nature-based solutions Resilience PY - 2016 SN - 0959-3780 SP - 111-123 ST - Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas T2 - Global Environmental Change TI - Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas VL - 36 ID - 26555 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Brubaker, Michael AU - Bell, Jake AU - Berner, James AU - Black, Mike AU - Chaven, Raj AU - Smith, Jeff AU - Warren, John CY - Anchorage, AK PB - Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium PY - 2011 SP - 54 ST - Climate Change in Noatak, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health TI - Climate Change in Noatak, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health UR - https://anthc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CCH_AR_062011_Climate-Change-in-Noatak.pdf ID - 26556 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There is an increasing demand for climate science that decision-makers can readily use to address issues created by climate variability and climate change. To be usable, the science must be relevant to their context and the complex management challenges they face and credible and legitimate in their eyes. The literature on usable science provides guiding principles for its development, which indicate that climate scientists who want to participate in the process need skills in addition to their traditional disciplinary training to facilitate communicating, interacting, and developing and sustaining relationships with stakeholders outside their disciplines. However, the literature does not address questions about what specific skills are needed and how to provide climate scientists with these skills. To address these questions, this article presents insights from interviews with highly experienced and respected "first generation” climate science integrators from across the United States. The term “climate science integrator” is used to refer to climate scientists who specialize in helping decision-makers to integrate the best available climate science into their decision-making processes. The cadre of scientists who participated in the research has largely developed their methods for working successfully with stakeholders without formal training but often with the guidance of a mentor. Their collective wisdom illuminates the kinds of skills needed to be a successful science integrator and provides mentoring for aspiring science integrators. It also suggests the types of training that would cultivate these skills and indicates ways to change academic training and institutions to better encourage the next generation and to support this kind of work. AU - Brugger, Julie AU - Meadow, Alison AU - Horangic, Alexandra DO - 10.1175/bams-d-14-00289.1 IS - 3 PY - 2016 SP - 355-365 ST - Lessons from first-generation climate science integrators T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - Lessons from first-generation climate science integrators VL - 97 ID - 26557 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Carmichael, Wayne W. AU - Boyer, Gregory L. DA - 2016/04/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.hal.2016.02.002 KW - Harmful algal blooms Cyanobacteria Cyanotoxins Drinking/recreational water guidelines Human and animal health PY - 2016 SN - 1568-9883 SP - 194-212 ST - Health impacts from cyanobacteria harmful algae blooms: Implications for the North American Great Lakes T2 - Harmful Algae TI - Health impacts from cyanobacteria harmful algae blooms: Implications for the North American Great Lakes VL - 54 ID - 26558 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The role of extreme weather events in shaping people’s climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors’ climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US. AU - Carlton, J. Stuart AU - Mase, Amber S. AU - Knutson, Cody L. AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen AU - Haigh, Tonya AU - Todey, Dennis P. AU - Prokopy, Linda S. DA - March 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-015-1561-5 IS - 2 M3 - journal article PY - 2016 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 211-226 ST - The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes T2 - Climatic Change TI - The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes VL - 135 ID - 26559 ER - TY - RPRT AU - City of Chicago PY - 2014 SP - 44 ST - Green Stormwater Infrastructure Strategy TI - Green Stormwater Infrastructure Strategy UR - https://www.cityofchicago.org/content/dam/city/progs/env/ChicagoGreenStormwaterInfrastructureStrategy.pdf ID - 26560 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Crausbay, Shelley D. AU - Ramirez, Aaron R. AU - Carter, Shawn L. AU - Cross, Molly S. AU - Hall, Kimberly R. AU - Bathke, Deborah J. AU - Betancourt, Julio L. AU - Colt, Steve AU - Cravens, Amanda E. AU - Dalton, Melinda S. AU - Dunham, Jason B. AU - Hay, Lauren E. AU - Hayes, Michael J. AU - McEvoy, Jamie AU - McNutt, Chad A. AU - Moritz, Max A. AU - Nislow, Keith H. AU - Raheem, Nejem AU - Sanford, Todd DO - 10.1175/bams-d-16-0292.1 IS - 12 PY - 2017 SP - 2543-2550 ST - Defining ecological drought for the twenty-first century T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - Defining ecological drought for the twenty-first century VL - 98 ID - 26561 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Statistical methods are commonly used to evaluate natural populations and environmental variables, yet these must recognize temporal trends in population character to be appropriate in an evolving world. New equations presented here define the statistical measures of aggregate historical populations affected by linear changes in population means and standard deviations. These can be used to extract the statistical character of present-day populations, needed to define modern variability and risk, from tables of historical data that are dominated by measurements made when conditions were different. As an example, many factors such as climate change and in-channel structures are causing flood levels to rise, so realistic estimation of future flood levels must take such secular changes into account. The new equations provide estimates of water levels for “100-year” floods in the USA Midwest that are 0.5 to 2 m higher than official calculations that routinely assume population stationarity. These equations also show that flood levels will continue to rise by several centimeters per year. This rate is nearly ten times faster than the rise of sea level, and thus represents one of the fastest and most damaging rates of change that is documented by robust data. AU - Criss, Robert E. DA - February 01 DO - 10.1007/s12583-015-0641-9 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2016 SN - 1867-111X SP - 2-8 ST - Statistics of evolving populations and their relevance to flood risk T2 - Journal of Earth Science TI - Statistics of evolving populations and their relevance to flood risk VL - 27 ID - 26562 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present-day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge-based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official “base flood” levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA. AU - Criss, Robert E. AU - Luo, Mingming DO - 10.1002/hyp.11097 IS - 6 PY - 2017 SP - 1283-1292 ST - Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin T2 - Hydrological Processes TI - Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin VL - 31 ID - 26563 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Criss, Robert E. AU - Winston, William E. DO - 10.1289/ehp.12042 IS - 12 PY - 2008 SP - A516-A516 ST - Public safety and faulty flood statistics T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Public safety and faulty flood statistics VL - 116 ID - 26564 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Croley II, Thomas E. CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory PY - 2003 SN - NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-126 SP - 77 ST - Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment I.J.C. Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation Study TI - Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment I.J.C. Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation Study UR - https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/tech_reports/glerl-126/tm-126.pdf ID - 26565 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield ( Δ Y = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half ( Δ Y = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter ( Δ Y = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. AU - Deryng, Delphine AU - Conway, Declan AU - Ramankutty, Navin AU - Price, Jeff AU - Warren, Rachel DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 IS - 3 PY - 2014 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 034011 ST - Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures VL - 9 ID - 26566 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Threats to migratory animals can occur at multiple periods of the annual cycle that are separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. Populations of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) of eastern North America have declined over the last 21 years. Three hypotheses have been posed to explain the decline: habitat loss on the overwintering grounds in Mexico, habitat loss on the breeding grounds in the United States and Canada, and extreme weather events. Our objectives were to assess population viability, determine which life stage, season and geographical region are contributing the most to population dynamics and test the three hypotheses that explain the observed population decline. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic and density-dependent periodic projection matrix model that integrates patterns of migratory connectivity and demographic vital rates across the annual cycle. We used perturbation analysis to determine the sensitivity of population abundance to changes in vital rate among life stages, seasons and geographical regions. Next, we compared the singular effects of each threat to the full model where all factors operate concurrently. Finally, we generated predictions to assess the risk of host plant loss as a result of genetically modified crops on current and future monarch butterfly population size and extinction probability. Our year-round population model predicted population declines of 14% and a quasi-extinction probability (<1000 individuals) >5% within a century. Monarch abundance was more than four times more sensitive to perturbations of vital rates on the breeding grounds than on the wintering grounds. Simulations that considered only forest loss or climate change in Mexico predicted higher population sizes compared to milkweed declines on the breeding grounds. Our model predictions also suggest that mitigating the negative effects of genetically modified crops results in higher population size and lower extinction risk. Recent population declines stem from reduction in milkweed host plants in the United States that arise from increasing adoption of genetically modified crops and land-use change, not from climate change or degradation of forest habitats in Mexico. Therefore, reducing the negative effects of host plant loss on the breeding grounds is the top conservation priority to slow or halt future population declines of monarch butterflies in North America. AU - Flockhart, D. T. Tyler AU - Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste AU - Norris, D. Ryan AU - Martin, Tara G. DO - 10.1111/1365-2656.12253 IS - 1 PY - 2015 SP - 155-165 ST - Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: Breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies T2 - Journal of Animal Ecology TI - Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: Breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies VL - 84 ID - 26567 ER - TY - CONF AU - Forbes, Donald L. AU - Manson, Gavin K. AU - Chagnon, Richard AU - Solomon, Steven M. AU - Sanden, Joost J. van der AU - Lynds, Tracy L. CY - Dunedin, New Zealand DA - December 2-6 PY - 2002 SP - 344-351 ST - Nearshore ice and climate change in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence T2 - Ice in the Environment: Proceedings of the 16th IAHR International Symposium on Ice TI - Nearshore ice and climate change in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence ID - 26568 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Getter, Kristin L. AU - Rowe, D. Bradley AU - Robertson, G. Philip AU - Cregg, Bert M. AU - Andresen, Jeffrey A. DA - 2009/10/01 DO - 10.1021/es901539x IS - 19 PY - 2009 SN - 0013-936X SP - 7564-7570 ST - Carbon sequestration potential of extensive green roofs T2 - Environmental Science & Technology TI - Carbon sequestration potential of extensive green roofs VL - 43 ID - 26569 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hall, Kimberly R. AU - Herbert, Matthew E. AU - Sowa, Scott P. AU - Mysorekar, Sagar AU - Woznicki, Sean A. AU - Nejadhashemi, Pouyan A. AU - Wang, Lizhu DA - 2017/02/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jglr.2016.11.005 IS - 1 KW - Climate adaptation Climate change Great Lakes Fish Conservation outcomes Agricultural impacts Nutrient loading PY - 2017 SN - 0380-1330 SP - 59-68 ST - Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework VL - 43 ID - 26570 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Dietz, Thomas A2 - Bidwell, David AU - Hall, Kimberly R. AU - Root, Terry L. C4 - 94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 PB - Michigan State University Press PY - 2012 SN - 9781611860122 SP - 63-96 ST - Climate change and biodiversity in the Great Lakes Region from "fingerprints" of change to helping safeguard species T2 - Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future TI - Climate change and biodiversity in the Great Lakes Region from "fingerprints" of change to helping safeguard species ID - 26571 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herb, William R. AU - Johnson, Lucinda B. AU - Jacobson, Peter C. AU - Stefan, Heinz G. DA - 2014/09/01 DO - 10.1139/cjfas-2013-0535 IS - 9 PY - 2014 SN - 0706-652X SP - 1334-1348 ST - Projecting cold-water fish habitat in lakes of the glacial lakes region under changing land use and climate regimes T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Projecting cold-water fish habitat in lakes of the glacial lakes region under changing land use and climate regimes VL - 71 Y2 - 2018/10/05 ID - 26572 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hewitt, Bailey AU - Lopez, Lianna AU - Gaibisels, Katrina AU - Murdoch, Alyssa AU - Higgins, Scott AU - Magnuson, John AU - Paterson, Andrew AU - Rusak, James AU - Yao, Huaxia AU - Sharma, Sapna DO - 10.3390/w10010070 IS - 1 PY - 2018 SN - 2073-4441 SP - [16] ST - Historical trends, drivers, and future projections of ice phenology in small north temperate lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region T2 - Water TI - Historical trends, drivers, and future projections of ice phenology in small north temperate lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region VL - 10 ID - 26573 ER - TY - JOUR AB - There is mounting concern over the source and genetic history of plant propagules used for habitat restoration because introduced genotypes may destabilize remnant local populations through competition and introgression. We examined whether introduced dune grass, Ammophila breviligulata, from Michigan is genetically distinct from a threatened local Minnesota population by comparing local and nonlocal genotypes in well-established stands in the field and in experimental common gardens. Both observational and experimental studies suggest that Michigan plants differed genetically and had an advantage over local plants in terms of vegetative spread and sexual reproduction. Well-established restoration populations composed of Michigan plants produced fertile culms that were 1.8 times taller than Minnesota plants and more than twice as fecund. Introgression is unlikely, however, because Minnesota genotypes flowered on average 6.7 weeks earlier than Michigan plants and only 20% of Minnesota pollen remained viable after 4 weeks. In the common gardens, Michigan plants from two sources were larger in size, grew faster, and flowered more frequently than Minnesota plants. Plant surveys across the study area suggest that nonlocal genotypes have spread beyond documented restoration areas and into local stands, particularly in foredunes. Even if gene flow between local and nonlocal plants is limited due to differences in flowering phenology, Michigan genotypes may out-compete plants in the threatened Minnesota population through greater vegetative and sexual reproduction. The fitness consequences of this change in the genetic composition of the local population have yet to be determined. AU - Holmstrom, Rebecca M. AU - Etterson, Julie R. AU - Schimpf, David J. DO - 10.1111/j.1526-100X.2009.00593.x IS - s2 PY - 2010 SP - 426-437 ST - Dune restoration introduces genetically distinct American beachgrass, Ammophila breviligulata, into a threatened local population T2 - Restoration Ecology TI - Dune restoration introduces genetically distinct American beachgrass, Ammophila breviligulata, into a threatened local population VL - 18 ID - 26574 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Howk, Forrest DA - 2009/03/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jglr.2008.11.002 IS - 1 KW - Ice Navigation Bayfield Lake Superior PY - 2009 SN - 0380-1330 SP - 159-162 ST - Changes in Lake Superior ice cover at Bayfield, Wisconsin T2 - Journal of Great Lakes Research TI - Changes in Lake Superior ice cover at Bayfield, Wisconsin VL - 35 ID - 26575 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Honsey, Andrew E. AU - Donabauer, Steven B. AU - Höök, Tomas O. DA - 2016/03/03 DO - 10.1080/00028487.2015.1125949 IS - 2 PY - 2016 SN - 0002-8487 SP - 363-373 ST - An analysis of lake morphometric and land-use characteristics that promote persistence of Cisco in Indiana T2 - Transactions of the American Fisheries Society TI - An analysis of lake morphometric and land-use characteristics that promote persistence of Cisco in Indiana VL - 145 ID - 26576 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Potts, Simon G. A2 - Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera A2 - Ngo, Hien T. AU - IPBES CY - Bonn, Germany N1 - ISBN: 978-92-807-3567-3 PB - Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) PY - 2017 RP - ISBN: 978-92-807-3567-3 SP - 502 ST - The Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production TI - The Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production UR - https://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/downloads/pdf/individual_chapters_pollination_20170305.pdf ID - 26577 ER - TY - WEB AU - ISU CY - Ames, IA PB - Iowa State University (ISU) PY - 2018 ST - STRIPS (Science-based Trials of Rowcrops Integrated with Prairie Strips) Project [web site] TI - STRIPS (Science-based Trials of Rowcrops Integrated with Prairie Strips) Project [web site] UR - https://www.nrem.iastate.edu/research/STRIPS/ ID - 26578 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jacobson, Peter C. AU - Jones, Thomas S. AU - Rivers, Pat AU - Pereira, Donald L. DA - 2008/09/01 DO - 10.1577/T07-148.1 IS - 5 PY - 2008 SN - 0002-8487 SP - 1464-1474 ST - Field estimation of a lethal oxythermal niche boundary for adult ciscoes in Minnesota lakes T2 - Transactions of the American Fisheries Society TI - Field estimation of a lethal oxythermal niche boundary for adult ciscoes in Minnesota lakes VL - 137 ID - 26579 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jacobson, Peter C. AU - Stefan, Heinz G. AU - Pereira, Donald L. DA - 2010/12/01 DO - 10.1139/F10-115 IS - 12 PY - 2010 SN - 0706-652X SP - 2002-2013 ST - Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: Influence of total phosphorus, July air temperature, and relative depth T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: Influence of total phosphorus, July air temperature, and relative depth VL - 67 Y2 - 2018/10/05 ID - 26580 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jiang, Liping AU - Fang, Xing AU - Stefan, Heinz G. AU - Jacobson, Peter C. AU - Pereira, Donald L. DA - 2012/05/10/ DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.014 KW - Cisco () Climate Climate change Fish habitat Lakes Minnesota Simulations Water quality Water temperature Dissolved oxygen PY - 2012 SN - 0304-3800 SP - 14-27 ST - Oxythermal habitat parameters and identifying cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota under future climate scenarios using variable benchmark periods T2 - Ecological Modelling TI - Oxythermal habitat parameters and identifying cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota under future climate scenarios using variable benchmark periods VL - 232 ID - 26581 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jiang, Liping AU - Fang, Xing DO - 10.3390/w8070279 IS - 7 PY - 2016 SN - 2073-4441 SP - 279 ST - Simulation and validation of cisco lethal conditions in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios using constant survival limits T2 - Water TI - Simulation and validation of cisco lethal conditions in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios using constant survival limits VL - 8 ID - 26582 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. AU - Jin, Zhenong AU - Zhuang, Qianlai AU - Wang, Jiali AU - Archontoulis, Sotirios V. AU - Zobel, Zachary AU - Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. DO - 10.1111/gcb.13617 IS - 7 PY - 2017 SP - 2687-2704 ST - The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 T2 - Global Change Biology TI - The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 VL - 23 ID - 26583 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kaiser-Bunbury, Christopher N. AU - Mougal, James AU - Whittington, Andrew E. AU - Valentin, Terence AU - Gabriel, Ronny AU - Olesen, Jens M. AU - Blüthgen, Nico DA - 01/30/online DO - 10.1038/nature21071 PY - 2017 SP - 223-227 ST - Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function T2 - Nature TI - Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function VL - 542 ID - 26584 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kelly, Sara A. AU - Takbiri, Zeinab AU - Belmont, Patrick AU - Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi DO - 10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017 IS - 10 PY - 2017 SN - 1607-7938 SP - 5065-5088 ST - Human amplified changes in precipitation–runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States T2 - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences TI - Human amplified changes in precipitation–runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States VL - 21 ID - 26585 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Responses to climate change have been observed across many species. There is a general trend for species to shift their ranges poleward or up in elevation. Not all species, however, can make such shifts, and these species might experience more rapid declines. Kerr et al. looked at data on bumblebees across North America and Europe over the past 110 years. Bumblebees have not shifted northward and are experiencing shrinking distributions in the southern ends of their range. Such failures to shift may be because of their origins in a cooler climate, and suggest an elevated susceptibility to rapid climate change.Science, this issue p. 177For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change–related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species’ northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species. AU - Kerr, Jeremy T. AU - Pindar, Alana AU - Galpern, Paul AU - Packer, Laurence AU - Potts, Simon G. AU - Roberts, Stuart M. AU - Rasmont, Pierre AU - Schweiger, Oliver AU - Colla, Sheila R. AU - Richardson, Leif L. AU - Wagner, David L. AU - Gall, Lawrence F. AU - Sikes, Derek S. AU - Pantoja, Alberto DO - 10.1126/science.aaa7031 IS - 6244 PY - 2015 SP - 177-180 ST - Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents T2 - Science TI - Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents VL - 349 ID - 26586 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Despite the rapid evolution and growing complexity in models of science-society interaction, the rate and breadth of use of scientific knowledge in environmental decision making, especially related to climate variability and change, remain below expectations. This suggests a persistent gap between production and use that, to date, efforts to rethink and restructure science production have not been able to surmount. We review different models of science-policy interfaces to understand how they have influenced the organization of knowledge production and application. We then explore how new approaches to the creation of knowledge have emerged, involving both growing integration across disciplines and greater interaction with users. Finally, we review climate information use in the United States and United Kingdom to explore how the structure of knowledge production and the characteristics of users and their decision environments expose the challenges of broadening usable climate science. AU - Kirchhoff, Christine J. AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen AU - Dessai, Suraje DO - 10.1146/annurev-environ-022112-112828 IS - 1 KW - science-policy model,information usability,RISA,UK Climate Program PY - 2013 SP - 393-414 ST - Actionable knowledge for environmental decision making: Broadening the usability of climate science T2 - Annual Review of Environment and Resources TI - Actionable knowledge for environmental decision making: Broadening the usability of climate science VL - 38 ID - 26587 ER - TY - JOUR AB - While the Midwestern USA ranks among the world’s most important corn-soybean production regions, the area also produces a variety of high-value specialty crops. These crops are an important component of the region’s rural economy with an estimated value of $1.8 billion in 2012. More profitable per-acre than many row crops, specialty crops also have higher production-related risks. They are generally more sensitive to climatic stressors and require more comprehensive management compared to traditional row crops. Temperature and precipitation fluctuations across the Midwest directly impact specialty crop production quantity and quality and indirectly influence the timing of crucial farm operations and the economic impacts of pests, weeds, and diseases. Increasingly variable weather and climate change pose a serious threat to specialty crop production in the Midwest. In this article, we assess how climate variability and observed climatic trends are impacting Midwestern specialty crop production using USDA Risk Management Agency data. In addition, we review current trends in grower perceptions of risks associated with a changing climate and assess sustainable adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that weather-induced losses vary by state with excessive moisture resulting in the highest total number of claims across all Midwestern states followed by freeze and drought events. Overall, specialty crop growers are aware of the increased production risk under a changing climate and have identified the need for crop-specific weather, production, and financial risk management tools and increased crop insurance coverage. AU - Kistner, Erica AU - Kellner, Olivia AU - Andresen, Jeffrey AU - Todey, Dennis AU - Morton, Lois Wright DA - January 01 DO - 10.1007/s10584-017-2066-1 IS - 1 M3 - journal article PY - 2018 SN - 1573-1480 SP - 145-158 ST - Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA T2 - Climatic Change TI - Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA VL - 146 ID - 26588 ER - TY - JOUR AB - In 2014, a presidential memorandum called for an assessment of the nation’s pollinators, in response to growing awareness of their economic importance and recent declines. We assess, for the first time to our knowledge, the status and trends of wild bee abundance and their potential impacts on pollination services across the United States. We develop national maps of wild bee abundance, report land-use–driven changes over time, and relate them to trends in agricultural demand for pollination. We estimate uncertainty in the findings, so future research can target the least-understood regions and topics. Our findings can also help focus conservation efforts where declines in bee abundance are most certain, especially where agricultural demand for pollination services is growing.Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation’s pollinators. AU - Koh, Insu AU - Lonsdorf, Eric V. AU - Williams, Neal M. AU - Brittain, Claire AU - Isaacs, Rufus AU - Gibbs, Jason AU - Ricketts, Taylor H. DO - 10.1073/pnas.1517685113 IS - 1 PY - 2016 SP - 140-145 ST - Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States VL - 113 ID - 26589 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Worldwide, human appropriation of ecosystems is disrupting plant–pollinator communities and pollination function through habitat conversion and landscape homogenisation. Conversion to agriculture is destroying and degrading semi-natural ecosystems while conventional land-use intensification (e.g. industrial management of large-scale monocultures with high chemical inputs) homogenises landscape structure and quality. Together, these anthropogenic processes reduce the connectivity of populations and erode floral and nesting resources to undermine pollinator abundance and diversity, and ultimately pollination services. Ecological intensification of agriculture represents a strategic alternative to ameliorate these drivers of pollinator decline while supporting sustainable food production, by promoting biodiversity beneficial to agricultural production through management practices such as intercropping, crop rotations, farm-level diversification and reduced agrochemical use. We critically evaluate its potential to address and reverse the land use and management trends currently degrading pollinator communities and potentially causing widespread pollination deficits. We find that many of the practices that constitute ecological intensification can contribute to mitigating the drivers of pollinator decline. Our findings support ecological intensification as a solution to pollinator declines, and we discuss ways to promote it in agricultural policy and practice. AU - Kovács-Hostyánszki, Anikó AU - Espíndola, Anahí AU - Vanbergen, Adam J. AU - Settele, Josef AU - Kremen, Claire AU - Dicks, Lynn V. DO - 10.1111/ele.12762 IS - 5 PY - 2017 SP - 673-689 ST - Ecological intensification to mitigate impacts of conventional intensive land use on pollinators and pollination T2 - Ecology Letters TI - Ecological intensification to mitigate impacts of conventional intensive land use on pollinators and pollination VL - 20 ID - 26590 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Landis, Douglas A. DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa825c IS - 10 PY - 2017 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 101003 ST - Productive engagement with agriculture essential to monarch butterfly conservation T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - Productive engagement with agriculture essential to monarch butterfly conservation VL - 12 ID - 26591 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future. AU - Liu, Yanjie AU - Oduor, Ayub M. O. AU - Zhang, Zhen AU - Manea, Anthony AU - Tooth, Ifeanna M. AU - Leishman, Michelle R. AU - Xu, Xingliang AU - Kleunen, Mark DO - 10.1111/gcb.13579 IS - 8 PY - 2017 SP - 3363-3370 ST - Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants? T2 - Global Change Biology TI - Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants? VL - 23 ID - 26592 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lyons, John AU - Parks, Timothy P. AU - Minahan, Kristi L. AU - Ruesch, Aaron S. DA - 2018/04/01 DO - 10.1139/cjfas-2017-0043 IS - 4 PY - 2017 SN - 0706-652X SP - 600-608 ST - Evaluation of oxythermal metrics and benchmarks for the protection of cisco (Coregonus artedi) habitat quality and quantity in Wisconsin lakes T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Evaluation of oxythermal metrics and benchmarks for the protection of cisco (Coregonus artedi) habitat quality and quantity in Wisconsin lakes VL - 75 Y2 - 2018/10/05 ID - 26593 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Magee, Madeline R. AU - Wu, Chin H. DO - 10.5194/hess-21-6253-2017 IS - 12 PY - 2017 SN - 1607-7938 SP - 6253-6274 ST - Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry T2 - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences TI - Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry VL - 21 ID - 26594 ER - TY - JOUR AB - A one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM-WQ-I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice-on, ice-off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice-on dates and earlier ice-off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of −10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes. AU - Magee, Madeline R. AU - Wu, Chin H. DO - 10.1002/hyp.10996 IS - 2 PY - 2017 SP - 308-323 ST - Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes T2 - Hydrological Processes TI - Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes VL - 31 ID - 26595 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Magee, Madeline R. AU - McIntyre, Peter B. AU - Wu, Chin H. DA - 2018/08/01 DO - 10.1139/cjfas-2017-0260 IS - 8 PY - 2017 SN - 0706-652X SP - 1303-1312 ST - Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach T2 - Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences TI - Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach VL - 75 Y2 - 2018/10/05 ID - 26596 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Meerow, Sara AU - Newell, Joshua P. DA - 2017/03/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.10.005 KW - Green infrastructure Ecosystem services Resilience Detroit Spatial planning Urban greening PY - 2017 SN - 0169-2046 SP - 62-75 ST - Spatial planning for multifunctional green infrastructure: Growing resilience in Detroit T2 - Landscape and Urban Planning TI - Spatial planning for multifunctional green infrastructure: Growing resilience in Detroit VL - 159 ID - 26597 ER - TY - RPRT AU - GRAEF AU - Hey and Associates Inc. AU - CDM Smith CY - Milwaukee, WI PB - Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District PY - 2017 RN - https://www.mmsd.com/application/files/4314/9522/1491/KK_Watershed_Flood_Management_Plan_05_04_17_-_-EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_002.pdf SP - 9 ST - Kinnickinnic River Watershed Flood Management Plan: Final Report. Executive Summary TI - Kinnickinnic River Watershed Flood Management Plan: Final Report. Executive Summary UR - https://www.mmsd.com/application/files/4314/9522/1491/KK_Watershed_Flood_Management_Plan_05_04_17_-_-EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_002.pdf ID - 26598 ER - TY - WEB AU - MSU CY - East Lansing, MI M1 - March 28 PB - Michigan State University (MSU) PY - 2018 ST - Solar Carport Initiative [web site] TI - Solar Carport Initiative [web site] UR - http://ipf.msu.edu/green/practices/solar-carport-initiative.html ID - 26599 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District (MSD) is a regional Special Sewer District that provides Wastewater and Stormwater services to the City of St. Louis and most of St. Louis County, Missouri. The service area includes a Combined Sewer System (CSS) in the City and the older portions of the County. In 2011, MSD completed a Combined Sewer Overflow Long-Term Control Plan (LTCP), which was formalized in a Consent Decree (CD) with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April, 2012. MSD’s Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) control plan includes a $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program in the areas of the City of St. Louis that flow toward the Mississippi River CSOs. MSD spent five years conducting a $3 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Pilot Program, culminating in a CD required final report completed in December 2015. The report explains what work was completed in the GI Pilot Program and the results, and outlines MSD’s plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program control measure. This presentation will briefly review the GI Pilot Program, with the main focus to discuss the findings of the GI Pilot Program and the plan for full-implementation of the $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. Included will be major components of the program, the expected reduction in CSO volume and use of an adaptive management approach to manage the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program through 2034.

Implementation of green infrastructure for CSO volume reduction is one of many ways green infrastructure can be strategized for use in urban areas. As a separate entity from the City of St. Louis, MSD's plan highlights the important role that collaboration must have in the implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. The plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program was developed with critical consideration of public-private partnerships, support of planned use areas and encouraging development and redevelopment in the City of St. Louis. Found to be effective in the GI Pilot Program, these same strategies are applicable to other communities planning and implementing green infrastructure programs. AU - Norton, Melantha D. AU - Moore, Gary T. DA - // DO - 10.2175/193864717821494853 IS - 2 KW - Adaptive Management Public-Private Partnerships Consent Decree Combined Sewer Overflows Long Term Control Plan Green Infrastructure PY - 2017 SP - 61-81 ST - St. Louis MSD CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program T2 - Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation TI - St. Louis MSD CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program VL - 2017 ID - 26600 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Nowak, David J. AU - Greenfield, Eric J. AU - Hoehn, Robert E. AU - Lapoint, Elizabeth DA - 2013/07/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.envpol.2013.03.019 KW - Ecosystem services Global climate change Urban forestry Tree cover Forest inventory PY - 2013 SN - 0269-7491 SP - 229-236 ST - Carbon storage and sequestration by trees in urban and community areas of the United States T2 - Environmental Pollution TI - Carbon storage and sequestration by trees in urban and community areas of the United States VL - 178 ID - 26601 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Nowak, David J. AU - Hoehn III, Robert E. AU - Bodine, Allison R. AU - Crane, Daniel E. AU - Dwyer, John F. AU - Bonnewell, Veta AU - Watson, Gary CY - Newtown Square, PA DO - 10.2737/NRS-RB-84 PB - USDA, Forest Service, Northern Research Station PY - 2013 SN - Resource Bulletin NRS-84 SP - 106 ST - Urban Trees and Forests of the Chicago Region TI - Urban Trees and Forests of the Chicago Region UR - https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/44566 ID - 26602 ER - TY - MGZN AU - Dierkes, Christina M1 - 4 PB - Ohio Sea Grant PY - 2012 SP - 3-5 ST - From farm fields to wetlands T2 - Twine Line TI - From farm fields to wetlands UR - https://ohioseagrant.osu.edu/p/3un80 VL - 34 ID - 26603 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Potts, Simon G. AU - Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera AU - Ngo, Hien T. AU - Aizen, Marcelo A. AU - Biesmeijer, Jacobus C. AU - Breeze, Thomas D. AU - Dicks, Lynn V. AU - Garibaldi, Lucas A. AU - Hill, Rosemary AU - Settele, Josef AU - Vanbergen, Adam J. DA - 11/28/online DO - 10.1038/nature20588 M3 - Review Article PY - 2016 SP - 220-229 ST - Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being T2 - Nature TI - Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being VL - 540 ID - 26604 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Crate, Susan A. A2 - Nuttall, Mark AU - Peterson, Kristina AU - Maldonado, Julie Koppel C4 - aeb9b543-7b7d-48e7-b1a6-57de7bff663c CY - New York, NY ET - 2nd PB - Taylor & Francis PY - 2016 SN - 978-1629580012 1629580015 SP - 336-353 ST - When adaptation is not enough: “Between now and then” of community-led resettlement T2 - Anthropology and Climate Change: From Encounters to Actions TI - When adaptation is not enough: “Between now and then” of community-led resettlement ID - 26605 ER - TY - BLOG AU - Staff Writer CY - Columbus, OH M1 - September 30 PB - Agri Communicators Inc. PY - 2015 ST - Country life: Wetland rehabilitation effort paying off T2 - Ohio Ag Net TI - Country life: Wetland rehabilitation effort paying off UR - http://ocj.com/2015/09/wetland-rehabilitation-effort-paying-off/ ID - 26606 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Prairie strips are a new conservation technology designed to alleviate biodiversity loss and environmental damage associated with row-crop agriculture. Results from a multiyear, catchment-scale experiment comparing corn and soybean fields with and without prairie vegetation indicated prairie strips raised pollinator and bird abundance, decreased water runoff, and increased soil and nutrient retention. These benefits accrued at levels disproportionately greater than the land area occupied by prairie strips. Social surveys revealed demand among both farm and nonfarm populations for the outcomes prairie strips produced. We estimated prairie strips could be used to improve biodiversity and ecosystem services across 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa and a large portion of the 69 million ha under similar management in the United States.Loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services from agricultural lands remain important challenges in the United States despite decades of spending on natural resource management. To date, conservation investment has emphasized engineering practices or vegetative strategies centered on monocultural plantings of nonnative plants, largely excluding native species from cropland. In a catchment-scale experiment, we quantified the multiple effects of integrating strips of native prairie species amid corn and soybean crops, with prairie strips arranged to arrest run-off on slopes. Replacing 10% of cropland with prairie strips increased biodiversity and ecosystem services with minimal impacts on crop production. Compared with catchments containing only crops, integrating prairie strips into cropland led to greater catchment-level insect taxa richness (2.6-fold), pollinator abundance (3.5-fold), native bird species richness (2.1-fold), and abundance of bird species of greatest conservation need (2.1-fold). Use of prairie strips also reduced total water runoff from catchments by 37%, resulting in retention of 20 times more soil and 4.3 times more phosphorus. Corn and soybean yields for catchments with prairie strips decreased only by the amount of the area taken out of crop production. Social survey results indicated demand among both farming and nonfarming populations for the environmental outcomes produced by prairie strips. If federal and state policies were aligned to promote prairie strips, the practice would be applicable to 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa alone. AU - Schulte, Lisa A. AU - Niemi, Jarad AU - Helmers, Matthew J. AU - Liebman, Matt AU - Arbuckle, J. Gordon AU - James, David E. AU - Kolka, Randall K. AU - O’Neal, Matthew E. AU - Tomer, Mark D. AU - Tyndall, John C. AU - Asbjornsen, Heidi AU - Drobney, Pauline AU - Neal, Jeri AU - Van Ryswyk, Gary AU - Witte, Chris DO - 10.1073/pnas.1620229114 IS - 42 PY - 2017 SP - 11247-11252 ST - Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands VL - 114 ID - 26607 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sekaluvu, Lawrence AU - Zhang, Lefei AU - Gitau, Margaret DA - 2018/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.09.063 KW - Water quality Total Phosphorus Soluble Reactive Phosphorus Western Lake Erie Basin Precipitation Land management PY - 2018 SN - 0301-4797 SP - 85-98 ST - Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin T2 - Journal of Environmental Management TI - Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin VL - 205 ID - 26608 ER - TY - WEB AU - NCGA CY - Chesterfield, MO PB - National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) PY - 2018 ST - Soil Health Partnership [web page] TI - Soil Health Partnership [web page] UR - https://www.soilhealthpartnership.org/ ID - 26609 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Anderson, Chris AU - Claman, David AU - Mantilla, Ricardo CY - Ames, IA PB - Iowa State University, Institute for Transportation PY - 2015 SN - HEPN-707 SP - 45 ST - Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot TI - Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot UR - http://www.intrans.iastate.edu/research/documents/research-reports/IA_climate_change_vulnerability_assess_w_cvr1.pdf ID - 26611 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tavakol-Davani, Hassan AU - Burian, Steven J. AU - Devkota, Jay AU - Apul, Defne DO - 10.1061/JSWBAY.0000805 IS - 2 PY - 2016 SP - 04015009 ST - Performance and cost-based comparison of green and gray infrastructure to control combined sewer overflows T2 - Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment TI - Performance and cost-based comparison of green and gray infrastructure to control combined sewer overflows UR - Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is being used more often today as a water supply and stormwater management green infrastructure (GI). In recent years, GIs in urban water engineering have gained attention due to their lower lifecycle costs—in both implementation and operation phases—rather than traditional gray approaches. The research described in the present paper compared implementation of RWH systems to gray approaches previously designed as a part of the long-term control plan (LTCP) for combined sewer overflow (CSO) control in Toledo, Ohio. RWH scenarios in this study were defined based on different system capacities and release policies, and then combined gray and green scenarios were analyzed according to their hydrologic performance and cost. This study employed long-term continuous hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) simulations as well as lifecycle cost (LCC) analysis techniques. The results showed that greening the LTCP via RWH could improve the lifecycle cost-effectiveness by 48%. The captured rainwater was considered to supply toilet flushing water demand in buildings. VL - 2 ID - 26612 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tavakol-Davani, Hessam AU - Goharian, Erfan AU - Hansen, Carly H. AU - Tavakol-Davani, Hassan AU - Apul, Defne AU - Burian, Steven J. DA - 2016/11/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.scs.2016.07.003 KW - Change factor Climate change Combined sewer overflow Hydrologic-hydraulic modeling Rainwater harvesting PY - 2016 SN - 2210-6707 SP - 430-438 ST - How does climate change affect combined sewer overflow in a system benefiting from rainwater harvesting systems? T2 - Sustainable Cities and Society TI - How does climate change affect combined sewer overflow in a system benefiting from rainwater harvesting systems? VL - 27 ID - 26613 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly. AU - Thogmartin, Wayne E. AU - López-Hoffman, Laura AU - Rohweder, Jason AU - Diffendorfer, Jay AU - Drum, Ryan AU - Semmens, Darius AU - Black, Scott AU - Caldwell, Iris AU - Cotter, Donita AU - Drobney, Pauline AU - Jackson, Laura L. AU - Gale, Michael AU - Helmers, Doug AU - Hilburger, Steve AU - Howard, Elizabeth AU - Oberhauser, Karen AU - Pleasants, John AU - Semmens, Brice AU - Taylor, Orley AU - Ward, Patrick AU - Weltzin, Jake F. AU - Wiederholt, Ruscena DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7637 IS - 7 PY - 2017 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 074005 ST - Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: "All hands on deck" T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: "All hands on deck" VL - 12 ID - 26614 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tomer, Mark D. AU - Schilling, Keith E. DA - 2009/09/30/ DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.029 IS - 1 KW - Ecohydrology Climate change Land use change Gulf of Mexico hypoxia Watershed analysis US Midwest PY - 2009 SN - 0022-1694 SP - 24-33 ST - A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology T2 - Journal of Hydrology TI - A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology VL - 376 ID - 26615 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Pollinator conservation is of increasing interest in the light of managed honeybee (Apis mellifera) declines, and declines in some species of wild bees. Much work has gone into understanding the effects of habitat enhancements in agricultural systems on wild bee abundance, richness and pollination services. However, the effects of ecological restoration targeting “natural” ecological endpoints (e.g. restoring former agricultural fields to historic vegetation types or improving degraded natural lands) on wild bees have received relatively little attention, despite their potential importance for countering habitat loss. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of ecological restoration on wild bee abundance and richness, focusing on unmanaged bee communities in lands restored and managed to increase habitat availability and quality. Specifically, we assessed bee abundance and/or richness across studies comparing restored vs. unrestored treatments and studies investigating effects of specific habitat restoration techniques, such as burning, grazing, invasive plant removal and seeding. We analysed 28 studies that met our selection criteria: these represented 11 habitat types and 7 restoration techniques. Nearly all restorations associated with these studies were performed without explicit consideration of habitat needs for bees or other pollinators. The majority of restorations targeted plant community goals, which could potentially have ancillary benefits for bees. Restoration had overall positive effects on wild bee abundance and richness across multiple habitat types. Specific restoration actions, tested independently, also tended to have positive effects on wild bee richness and abundance. Synthesis and applications. We found strong evidence that ecological restoration advances wild bee conservation. This is important given that habitat loss is recognized as a leading factor in pollinator decline. Pollinator responses to land management are rarely evaluated in non-agricultural settings and so support for wild bees may be an underappreciated benefit of botanically focused management. Future restoration projects that explicitly consider the needs of wild bees could be more effective at providing nesting, foraging and other habitat resources. We encourage land managers to design and evaluate restoration projects with the habitat needs of wild bee species in mind. AU - Tonietto, Rebecca K. AU - Larkin, Daniel J. DO - 10.1111/1365-2664.13012 IS - 2 PY - 2018 SP - 582-590 ST - Habitat restoration benefits wild bees: A meta-analysis T2 - Journal of Applied Ecology TI - Habitat restoration benefits wild bees: A meta-analysis VL - 55 ID - 26616 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Invasive alien species modify pollinator biodiversity and the services they provide that underpin ecosystem function and human well-being. Building on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) global assessment of pollinators and pollination, we synthesize current understanding of invasive alien impacts on pollinators and pollination. Invasive alien species create risks and opportunities for pollinator nutrition, re-organize species interactions to affect native pollination and community stability, and spread and select for virulent diseases. Risks are complex but substantial, and depend greatly on the ecological function and evolutionary history of both the invader and the recipient ecosystem. We highlight evolutionary implications for pollination from invasive alien species, and identify future research directions, key messages and options for decision-making. AU - Vanbergen, Adam J. AU - Espíndola, Anahí AU - Aizen, Marcelo A. DA - 2018/01/01 DO - 10.1038/s41559-017-0412-3 IS - 1 PY - 2018 SN - 2397-334X SP - 16-25 ST - Risks to pollinators and pollination from invasive alien species T2 - Nature Ecology & Evolution TI - Risks to pollinators and pollination from invasive alien species VL - 2 ID - 26619 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6–3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change. AU - Wing, Oliver E. J. AU - Bates, Paul D. AU - Smith, Andrew M. AU - Sampson, Christopher C. AU - Johnson, Kris A. AU - Fargione, Joseph AU - Morefield, Philip DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65 IS - 3 PY - 2018 SN - 1748-9326 SP - 034023 ST - Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States T2 - Environmental Research Letters TI - Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States VL - 13 ID - 26620 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world. AU - Villarini, Gabriele AU - Scoccimarro, Enrico AU - White, Kathleen D. AU - Arnold, Jeffrey R. AU - Schilling, Keith E. AU - Ghosh, Joyee DO - 10.1111/1752-1688.12318 IS - 5 PY - 2015 SP - 1361-1371 ST - Projected changes in discharge in an agricultural watershed in Iowa T2 - JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association TI - Projected changes in discharge in an agricultural watershed in Iowa VL - 51 ID - 26621 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Wisconsin Climate and Health Program CY - Madison, WI PB - Wisconsin Department of Health Services PY - 2015 SN - P-00709 SP - 2 ST - Understanding the Link Between Climate and Health TI - Understanding the Link Between Climate and Health UR - https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/publications/p0/p00709.pdf ID - 26622 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Lovejoy, Thomas E. A2 - Hannah, Lee AU - Allan, J. David AU - Palmer, Margaret AU - Poff, N. Leroy C4 - 793bb110-f9eb-43d2-a0bb-2898e426754d CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - Yale University Press PY - 2005 SN - 978-0300119800 SP - 274-290 ST - Climate change and freshwater ecosystems T2 - Climate Change and Biodiversity TI - Climate change and freshwater ecosystems ID - 26623 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Environment and Climate Change Canada AU - the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PY - 2018 ST - 2017 Annual Climate Trends and Impacts Summary for the Great Lakes Basin TI - 2017 Annual Climate Trends and Impacts Summary for the Great Lakes Basin UR - https://binational.net/2018/07/10/ctis-ctic-2017/ ID - 26624 ER - TY - WEB AU - USDN PY - 2018 ST - Urban Sustainability Directors Network [web site] TI - Urban Sustainability Directors Network [web site] UR - https://www.usdn.org/ ID - 26625 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Prokopy, Linda Stalker AU - Carlton, J. Stuart AU - Haigh, Tonya AU - Lemos, Maria Carmen AU - Mase, Amber Saylor AU - Widhalm, Melissa DA - 2017/01/01/ DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2016.10.004 KW - Co-production Climate change Midwestern U.S. Corn producers Agricultural advisors Interdisciplinary PY - 2017 SN - 2212-0963 SP - 1-7 ST - Useful to usable: Developing usable climate science for agriculture T2 - Climate Risk Management TI - Useful to usable: Developing usable climate science for agriculture VL - 15 ID - 26626 ER - TY - WEB AU - EIA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Energy Information Administration PY - 2016 ST - U.S. States: Table C9. Electric Power Sector Consumption Estimates, 2016 [web site] TI - U.S. States: Table C9. Electric Power Sector Consumption Estimates, 2016 [web site] UR - https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.php?incfile=/state/seds/sep_sum/html/sum_btu_eu.html&sid=US ID - 26692 ER - TY - WEB AU - HRWC CY - Ann Arbor, MI PB - Huron River Watershed Council (HRWC) PY - 2018 ST - Assessing Urban Vulnerability [web site] TI - Assessing Urban Vulnerability [web site] UR - https://www.hrwc.org/what-we-do/programs/climate-change/assessing-urban-vulnerability/ ID - 26693 ER - TY - WEB AU - Missouri Department of Transportation M1 - 7:53 AM; May 4, 2017 PY - 2017 ST - Traveler Information Report [web site] TI - Traveler Information Report [web site] UR - http://traveler.modot.org/report/modottext.aspx?type=all#tag_flood_closed ID - 26694 ER - TY - WEB AU - Missouri Department of Transportation M1 - May 24, 2017 PY - 2017 ST - Traveler Information Report [web site] TI - Traveler Information Report [web site] UR - http://traveler.modot.org/report/modottext.aspx?type=all#tag_flood_closed ID - 26695 ER -