TY - CHAP A2 - Melillo, Jerry M. A2 - Terese (T.C.) Richmond A2 - Yohe, Gary W. AU - Walsh, John AU - Wuebbles, Donald AU - Hayhoe, Katharine AU - Kossin, James AU - Kunkel, Kenneth AU - Stephens, Graeme AU - Thorne, Peter AU - Vose, Russell AU - Wehner, Michael AU - Willis, Josh AU - Anderson, David AU - Kharin, Viatcheslav AU - Knutson, Thomas AU - Landerer, Felix AU - Lenton, Tim AU - Kennedy, John AU - Somerville, Richard C4 - ee2ad491-9e02-4f29-859a-07970e4d1de1 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0G15XS3 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2014 RN - http://nca2014.globalchange.gov SP - 790-820 ST - Appendix 4: Frequently asked questions T2 - Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment TI - Appendix 4: Frequently asked questions ID - 8642 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Deschênes, O. AU - Greenstone, M. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1257/app.3.4.152 IS - 4 PY - 2011 SN - 1945-7782 SP - 152-185 ST - Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US T2 - American Economic Journal: Applied Economics TI - Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US VL - 3 ID - 13111 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hawkins, E. AU - Sutton, R. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 IS - 8 PY - 2009 SN - 0003-0007 SP - 1095-1107 ST - The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions VL - 90 ID - 13704 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Knutson, Thomas R. AU - Sirutis, Joseph J. AU - Vecchi, Gabriel A. AU - Garner, Steven AU - Zhao, Ming AU - Kim, Hyeong-Seog AU - Bender, Morris AU - Tuleya, Robert E. AU - Held, Isaac M. AU - Villarini, Gabriele C6 - NCA DA - September 2013 DO - 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00539.1 IS - 17 PY - 2013 SN - 0894-8755 SP - 6591-6617 ST - Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios VL - 27 Y2 - 2013/06/07 ID - 14099 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Littell, J.S. AU - McKenzie, D. AU - Peterson, D.L. AU - Westerling, A.L. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1890/07-1183.1 IS - 4 PY - 2009 SN - 1051-0761 SP - 1003-1021 ST - Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003 T2 - Ecological Applications TI - Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003 VL - 19 ID - 14270 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit still not reaching recent levels. AD - Mann, ME (reprint author), Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; Univ Arizona, Tree Ring Res Lab, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; Roger Williams Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Bristol, RI 02809 USA AN - 48 AU - Mann, M.E. AU - Zhang, Z. AU - Hughes, M.K. AU - Bradley, R.S. AU - Miller, S.K. AU - Rutherford, S. AU - Ni, F. 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C6 - NCA DO - 10.1073/pnas.0906865106 IS - 37 PY - 2009 SN - 0027-8424 SP - 15594-15598 ST - Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change VL - 106 ID - 15310 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Arndt, D. AU - Banzon, V.F. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Gleason, B. AU - Huang, B. AU - Kearns, E. AU - Lawrimore, J.H. AU - Menne, M.J. AU - Peterson, T.C. AU - Reynolds, R.W. AU - Smith, T.M. AU - Williams, C.N. AU - Wuertz, D.L. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1 PY - 2012 SP - 1677-1685 ST - NOAA’s merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - NOAA’s merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis VL - 93 ID - 15837 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Wouters, B. AU - Bamber, J. L. AU - van den Broeke, M. R. AU - Lenaerts, J. T. M. AU - Sasgen, I. C6 - NCA DO - 10.1038/ngeo1874 IS - 8 PY - 2013 SN - 1752-0894 SP - 613-616 ST - Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability T2 - Nature Geoscience TI - Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability VL - 6 ID - 16019 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ogden, Nicholas H. AU - Radojević, Milka AU - Wu, Xiaotian AU - Duvvuri, Venkata R. AU - Leighton, Patrick A. AU - Wu, Jianhong DO - 10.1289/ehp.1307799 N1 - Ch4,9 PY - 2014 SN - 0091-6765 SP - 631-638 ST - Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives TI - Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis VL - 122 ID - 16160 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Stocker, T.F. A2 - Qin, D. A2 - Plattner, G.-K. A2 - Tignor, M. A2 - Allen, S.K. A2 - Boschung, J. A2 - Nauels, A. A2 - Xia, Y. A2 - Bex, V. A2 - Midgley, P.M. AU - Masson-Delmotte, V. AU - Schulz, M. AU - Abe-Ouchi, A. AU - Beer, J. AU - Ganopolski, A. AU - González Rouco, J.F. AU - Jansen, E. AU - Lambeck, K. AU - Luterbacher, J. AU - Naish, T. AU - Osborn, T. AU - Otto-Bliesner, B. AU - Quinn, T. AU - Ramesh, R. AU - Rojas, M. AU - Shao, X. AU - Timmermann, A. C4 - 6f4c1264-ab24-4802-9171-ea967deecc6c CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 SE - 5 SN - ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0 SP - 383–464 ST - Information from paleoclimate archives T2 - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TI - Information from paleoclimate archives UR - http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/ ID - 16466 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Stocker, T.F. A2 - Qin, D. A2 - Plattner, G.-K. A2 - Tignor, M. A2 - Allen, S.K. A2 - Boschung, J. A2 - Nauels, A. A2 - Xia, Y. A2 - Bex, V. A2 - Midgley, P.M. AU - Myhre, G. AU - Shindell, D. AU - Bréon, F.-M. AU - Collins, W. AU - Fuglestvedt, J. AU - Huang, J. AU - Koch, D. AU - Lamarque, J.-F. AU - Lee, D. AU - Mendoza, B. AU - Nakajima, T. AU - Robock, A. AU - Stephens, G. AU - Takemura, T. AU - Zhang, H. C4 - 6c7c285c-8606-41fe-bf93-100d80f1d17a CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 SE - 8 SN - ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0 SP - 659–740 ST - Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing T2 - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change TI - Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing UR - http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/ ID - 16467 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Burrows, Michael T. AU - Schoeman, David S. AU - Buckley, Lauren B. AU - Moore, Pippa AU - Poloczanska, Elvira S. AU - Brander, Keith M. AU - Brown, Chris AU - Bruno, John F. AU - Duarte, Carlos M. AU - Halpern, Benjamin S. AU - Holding, Johnna AU - Kappel, Carrie V. AU - Kiessling, Wolfgang AU - O'Connor, Mary I. AU - Pandolfi, John M. AU - Parmesan, Camille AU - Schwing, Franklin B. AU - Sydeman, William J. AU - Richardson, Anthony J. DO - 10.1126/science.1210288 PY - 2011 SP - 652-655 ST - The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems T2 - Science TI - The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems VL - 334 ID - 16700 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Graff Zivin, Joshua AU - Neidell, Matthew DO - 10.1086/671766 IS - 1 N1 - Ch2 PY - 2014 SN - 0734306X 15375307 SP - 1-26 ST - Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change T2 - Journal of Labor Economics TI - Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change VL - 32 ID - 17597 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barbero, R. AU - Abatzoglou, J.T. AU - Larkin, N.K. AU - Kolden, C.A. AU - Stocks, B. DO - 10.1071/WF15083 PY - 2015 ST - Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States T2 - International Journal of Wildland Fire TI - Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States ID - 19295 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Beard, Charles B. AU - Eisen, Rebecca J. AU - Barker, Christopher M. AU - Garofalo, Jada F. AU - Hahn, Micah AU - Hayden, Mary AU - Monaghan, Andrew J. AU - Ogden, Nicholas H. AU - Schramm, Paul J. C4 - dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0765C7V PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2016 SP - 129–156 ST - Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases T2 - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment TI - Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases ID - 19377 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Ziska, Lewis AU - Crimmins, Allison AU - Auclair, Allan AU - DeGrasse, Stacey AU - Garofalo, Jada F. AU - Khan, Ali S. AU - Loladze, Irakli AU - Pérez de León, Adalberto A. AU - Showler, Allan AU - Thurston, Jeanette AU - Walls, Isabel C4 - 1ef11bf5-fb98-4f4f-905d-4990936ef52f CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0ZP4417 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2016 SP - 189–216 ST - Ch. 7: Food safety, nutrition, and distribution T2 - The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment TI - Ch. 7: Food safety, nutrition, and distribution ID - 19379 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Williams, A. Park AU - Seager, Richard AU - Abatzoglou, John T. AU - Cook, Benjamin I. AU - Smerdon, Jason E. AU - Cook, Edward R. DO - 10.1002/2015GL064924 IS - 16 KW - drought California warming potential evapotranspiration climate change attribution Palmer Drought Severity Index 1630 Impacts of global change 1812 Drought 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions 1866 Soil moisture 4313 Extreme events PY - 2015 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 6819-6828 ST - Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 VL - 42 ID - 19585 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Stroeve, Julienne AU - Notz, Dirk DA - 12// DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011 KW - Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability PY - 2015 SN - 0921-8181 SP - 119-132 ST - Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models T2 - Global and Planetary Change TI - Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models VL - 135 ID - 19881 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bopp, L. AU - Resplandy, L. AU - Orr, J. C. AU - Doney, S. C. AU - Dunne, J. P. AU - Gehlen, M. AU - Halloran, P. AU - Heinze, C. AU - Ilyina, T. AU - Séférian, R. AU - Tjiputra, J. AU - Vichi, M. DO - 10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013 IS - 10 PY - 2013 SN - 1726-4189 SP - 6225-6245 ST - Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models T2 - Biogeosciences TI - Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models VL - 10 ID - 20010 ER - TY - BOOK AB - The signals are everywhere that our planet is experiencing significant climate change. It is clear that we need to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from our atmosphere if we want to avoid greatly increased risk of damage from climate change. Aggressively pursuing a program of emissions abatement or mitigation will show results over a timescale of many decades. How do we actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to make a bigger difference more quickly? As one of a two-book report, this volume of Climate Intervention discusses CDR, the carbon dioxide removal of greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere and sequestration of it in perpetuity. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration introduces possible CDR approaches and then discusses them in depth. Land management practices, such as low-till agriculture, reforestation and afforestation, ocean iron fertilization, and land-and-ocean-based accelerated weathering, could amplify the rates of processes that are already occurring as part of the natural carbon cycle. Other CDR approaches, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration, direct air capture and sequestration, and traditional carbon capture and sequestration, seek to capture CO2 from the atmosphere and dispose of it by pumping it underground at high pressure. This book looks at the pros and cons of these options and estimates possible rates of removal and total amounts that might be removed via these methods. With whatever portfolio of technologies the transition is achieved, eliminating the carbon dioxide emissions from the global energy and transportation systems will pose an enormous technical, economic, and social challenge that will likely take decades of concerted effort to achieve. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration will help to better understand the potential cost and performance of CDR strategies to inform debate and decision making as we work to stabilize and reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. AU - NAS C4 - 8be49587-cc1b-4f03-b518-582045aa5cb9 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.17226/18805 KW - Earth Sciences LA - English PB - The National Academies Press PY - 2015 SN - 978-0-309-30529-7 SP - 154 ST - Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration TI - Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration ID - 20055 ER - TY - BOOK AB - The growing problem of changing environmental conditions caused by climate destabilization is well recognized as one of the defining issues of our time. The root problem is greenhouse gas emissions, and the fundamental solution is curbing those emissions. Climate geoengineering has often been considered to be a "last-ditch" response to climate change, to be used only if climate change damage should produce extreme hardship. Although the likelihood of eventually needing to resort to these efforts grows with every year of inaction on emissions control, there is a lack of information on these ways of potentially intervening in the climate system. As one of a two-book report, this volume of Climate Intervention discusses albedo modification - changing the fraction of incoming solar radiation that reaches the surface. This approach would deliberately modify the energy budget of Earth to produce a cooling designed to compensate for some of the effects of warming associated with greenhouse gas increases. The prospect of large-scale albedo modification raises political and governance issues at national and global levels, as well as ethical concerns. Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth discusses some of the social, political, and legal issues surrounding these proposed techniques. It is far easier to modify Earth's albedo than to determine whether it should be done or what the consequences might be of such an action. One serious concern is that such an action could be unilaterally undertaken by a small nation or smaller entity for its own benefit without international sanction and regardless of international consequences. Transparency in discussing this subject is critical. In the spirit of that transparency, Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth was based on peer-reviewed literature and the judgments of the authoring committee; no new research was done as part of this study and all data and information used are from entirely open sources. By helping to bring light to this topic area, this book will help leaders to be far more knowledgeable about the consequences of albedo modification approaches before they face a decision whether or not to use them. AU - NAS C4 - ea6bc7ed-4e09-44fa-b631-8ff70fc86f62 CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.17226/18988 KW - Earth Sciences LA - English PB - The National Academies Press PY - 2015 SN - 978-0-309-31482-4 SP - 260 ST - Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth TI - Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth ID - 20056 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Sanderson, Benjamin M. AU - O'Neill, Brian C. AU - Tebaldi, Claudia DO - 10.1002/2016GL069563 IS - 13 KW - emissions climate targets 1622 Earth system modeling 3305 Climate change and variability 3320 Idealized model 3333 Model calibration 6309 Decision making under uncertainty PY - 2016 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 7133-7142 ST - What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? VL - 43 ID - 20058 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Trenberth, Kevin E. DO - 10.1126/science.aac9225 IS - 6249 PY - 2015 SP - 691-692 ST - Has there been a hiatus? T2 - Science TI - Has there been a hiatus? VL - 349 ID - 20221 ER - TY - RPRT AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency PY - 2016 SN - EPA 430-R-16-004 SP - 96 ST - Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. 4th edition TI - Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. 4th edition UR - https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/climate_indicators_2016.pdf ID - 20357 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Knutson, T.R. AU - Zhang, R. AU - Horowitz, L.W. DO - 10.1038/ncomms13676 PY - 2016 SP - 13676 ST - Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century T2 - Nature Communications TI - Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century VL - 7 ID - 20424 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Yang, Hu AU - Lohmann, Gerrit AU - Wei, Wei AU - Dima, Mihai AU - Ionita, Monica AU - Liu, Jiping DO - 10.1002/2015JC011513 IS - 7 KW - western boundary currents intensification poleward shift global warming Kuroshio Current Gulf Stream 4576 Western boundary currents 4532 General circulation 4504 Air/sea interactions 1630 Impacts of global change 1637 Regional climate change PY - 2016 SN - 2169-9291 SP - 4928-4945 ST - Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans TI - Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate VL - 121 ID - 20451 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Sweet, W.V. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - Weaver, C.P. AU - Obeysekera, J. AU - Horton, R.M. AU - Thieler, E.R. AU - Zervas, C. CY - Silver Spring, MD NV - NOAA Tech. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 083 PB - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service PY - 2017 SP - 75 ST - Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States TI - Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States UR - https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf ID - 20608 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pederson, Gregory T. AU - Betancourt, Julio L. AU - McCabe, Gregory J. DO - 10.1002/grl.50424 IS - 9 KW - snow tree rings snow model water resources paleoclimate climate change 0736 Snow 1621 Cryospheric change 1616 Climate variability 1637 Regional climate change 9350 North America PY - 2013 SN - 1944-8007 SP - 1811-1816 ST - Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S VL - 40 ID - 20858 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades. We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992–2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, forest land use, human population and personal income. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060 under nine climate realisations, using a combination of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-based emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) and three general circulation models. Monte Carlo simulation quantifies ranges in projected area burned by county by year, and in total for higher-level spatial aggregations. Projections indicated, overall in the Southeast, that median annual area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire increases by 34%, human-ignited wildfire decreases by 6%, and total wildfire increases by 4% by 2056–60 compared with 2016–20. Total wildfire changes vary widely by state (–47 to +30%) and ecoregion province (–73 to +79%). Our analyses could be used to generate projections of wildfire-generated air pollutant exposures, relevant to meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. AU - Prestemon, Jeffrey P. AU - Shankar, Uma AU - Xiu, Aijun AU - Talgo, K. AU - Yang, D. AU - Dixon, Ernest AU - McKenzie, Donald AU - Abt, Karen L. DO - 10.1071/WF15124 IS - 7 KW - climate change, human-caused wildfire, land use, lightning-caused wildfire. PY - 2016 SP - 715-729 ST - Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60 T2 - International Journal of Wildland Fire TI - Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60 VL - 25 ID - 20932 ER - TY - RPRT A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - USGCRP CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.7930/J0J964J6 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SP - 470 ST - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I ID - 21557 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Wuebbles, D.J. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Hayhoe, K. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Mears, C. AU - Sweet, W.V. AU - Taylor, P.C. AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - 666daffe-2c3b-4e2d-9157-16b989860618 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J08S4N35 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 1 SP - 35-72 ST - Our globally changing climate T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Our globally changing climate ID - 21559 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Fahey, D.W. AU - Doherty, S. AU - Hibbard, K.A. AU - Romanou, A. AU - Taylor, P.C. C4 - 0615b4ff-d185-4e14-9d4d-5bea1ce6ca51 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0513WCR PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 2 SP - 73-113 ST - Physical drivers of climate change T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Physical drivers of climate change ID - 21560 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - Mears, C. AU - Perlwitz, J. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - 0725eae6-7458-4ec2-8f66-880d88118148 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J01834ND PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 3 SP - 114-132 ST - Detection and attribution of climate change T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Detection and attribution of climate change ID - 21561 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Hayhoe, K. AU - Edmonds, J. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Sanderson, B.M. AU - Wehner, M.F. AU - Wuebbles, D.J. C4 - 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0WH2N54 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 4 SP - 133-160 ST - Climate models, scenarios, and projections T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Climate models, scenarios, and projections ID - 21562 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Perlwitz, J. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - LeGrande, A.N. C4 - 1a46c6a2-4b5f-408d-b3d0-21ebdd4f960b CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0RV0KVQ PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 5 SP - 161-184 ST - Large-scale circulation and climate variability T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Large-scale circulation and climate variability ID - 21563 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Easterling, D.R. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Leung, L.R. AU - Vose, R.S. AU - Waliser, D.E. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0H993CC PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 7 SP - 207-230 ST - Precipitation change in the United States T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Precipitation change in the United States ID - 21565 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Wehner, M.F. AU - Arnold, J.R. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. C4 - a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 8 SP - 231-256 ST - Droughts, floods, and wildfires T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Droughts, floods, and wildfires ID - 21566 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Kossin, J.P. AU - Hall, T. AU - Knutson, T. AU - Kunkel, K.E. AU - Trapp, R.J. AU - Waliser, D.E. AU - Wehner, M.F. C4 - 52ce1b63-1b04-4728-9f1b-daee39af665e CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J07S7KXX PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 9 SP - 257-276 ST - Extreme storms T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Extreme storms ID - 21567 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Taylor, P.C. AU - Maslowski, W. AU - Perlwitz, J. AU - Wuebbles, D.J. C4 - 61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J00863GK PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 11 SP - 303-332 ST - Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States ID - 21569 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Sweet, W.V. AU - Horton, R. AU - Kopp, R.E. AU - LeGrande, A.N. AU - Romanou, A. C4 - 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0VM49F2 PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 12 SP - 333-363 ST - Sea level rise T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Sea level rise ID - 21570 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - Jewett, L. AU - Romanou, A. C4 - 5d047224-4e72-46d1-87f5-042c9617472d CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0QV3JQB PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 13 SP - 364-392 ST - Ocean acidification and other ocean changes T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Ocean acidification and other ocean changes ID - 21571 ER - TY - CHAP A2 - Wuebbles, D.J. A2 - Fahey, D.W. A2 - Hibbard, K.A. A2 - Dokken, D.J. A2 - Stewart, B.C. A2 - Maycock, T.K. AU - DeAngelo, B. AU - Edmonds, J. AU - Fahey, D.W. AU - Sanderson, B.M. C4 - b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a CY - Washington, DC, USA DO - 10.7930/J0M32SZG PB - U.S. Global Change Research Program PY - 2017 SE - Ch. 14 SP - 393-410 ST - Perspectives on climate change mitigation T2 - Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I TI - Perspectives on climate change mitigation ID - 21572 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Westerling, Anthony LeRoy DO - 10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 PY - 2016 SP - 20150178 ST - Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring T2 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences TI - Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring VL - 371 ID - 21942 ER - TY - JOUR AU - McKenzie, Donald AU - Littell, Jeremy S. DO - 10.1002/eap.1420 IS - 1 KW - climate change ecosections lagged response negative feedback nonstationarity water-balance deficit PY - 2017 SN - 1939-5582 SP - 26-36 ST - Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA? T2 - Ecological Applications TI - Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA? VL - 27 ID - 21973 ER - TY - JOUR AB - In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States. AU - Pederson, Gregory T. AU - Gray, Stephen T. AU - Woodhouse, Connie A. AU - Betancourt, Julio L. AU - Fagre, Daniel B. AU - Littell, Jeremy S. AU - Watson, Emma AU - Luckman, Brian H. AU - Graumlich, Lisa J. DO - 10.1126/science.1201570 IS - 6040 PY - 2011 SP - 332-335 ST - The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera T2 - Science TI - The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera VL - 333 ID - 23840 ER - TY - WEB AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PY - 2016 ST - Climate Change Indicators: Wildfires TI - Climate Change Indicators: Wildfires UR - https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires ID - 24228 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Rose, Steven K. AU - Diaz, Delavane B. AU - Blanford, Geoffrey J. DO - 10.1142/s2010007817500099 IS - 02 PY - 2017 SP - 1750009 ST - Understanding the social cost of carbon: A model diagnostic and inter-comparison study T2 - Climate Change Economics TI - Understanding the social cost of carbon: A model diagnostic and inter-comparison study VL - 08 ID - 24467 ER - TY - BOOK AB - The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science. AU - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine C4 - a46ba47b-a9d5-43af-a3d1-0691154a188e CY - Washington, DC DO - 10.17226/24651 KW - Environment and Environmental Studies LA - English PB - The National Academies Press PY - 2017 SN - 978-0-309-45420-9 SP - 280 ST - Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide TI - Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide ID - 24472 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Diaz, Delavane AU - Moore, Frances DA - 11/02/online DO - 10.1038/nclimate3411 M3 - Review Article PY - 2017 SP - 774-782 ST - Quantifying the economic risks of climate change T2 - Nature Climate Change TI - Quantifying the economic risks of climate change VL - 7 ID - 24496 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Lam, Vicky W. Y. AU - Cheung, William W. L. AU - Reygondeau, Gabriel AU - Sumaila, U. Rashid DA - 09/07/online DO - 10.1038/srep32607 M3 - Article PY - 2016 SP - Art. 32607 ST - Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change T2 - Scientific Reports TI - Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change VL - 6 ID - 24874 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jolly, W. Matt AU - Cochrane, Mark A. AU - Freeborn, Patrick H. AU - Holden, Zachary A. AU - Brown, Timothy J. AU - Williamson, Grant J. AU - Bowman, David M. J. S. DA - 07/14/online DO - 10.1038/ncomms8537 M3 - Article PY - 2015 SP - 7537 ST - Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 T2 - Nature Communications TI - Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 VL - 6 ID - 25451 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease. AU - Ostfeld, Richard S. AU - Brunner, Jesse L. DO - 10.1098/rstb.2014.0051 IS - 1665 PY - 2015 SP - 20140051 ST - Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans T2 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences TI - Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans VL - 370 ID - 25694 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the Nobel Prizewinning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change existed then as separate threads of research pursued by isolated groups of scientists. Atmospheric chemists and modelers grappled with the measurement of changes in carbon dioxide and atmospheric gases, and the changes in climate that might result. Meanwhile, geologists and paleoclimate researchers tried to understand when Earth slipped into and out of ice ages, and why. An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests. AU - Peterson, Thomas C. AU - Connolley, William M. AU - Fleck, John DO - 10.1175/2008bams2370.1 IS - 9 PY - 2008 SP - 1325-1338 ST - The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society TI - The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus VL - 89 ID - 26673 ER - TY - JOUR AB - At present, there is substantive evidence that the nutritional content of agriculturally important food crops will decrease in response to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Ca. However, whether Ca-induced declines in nutritional quality are also occurring for pollinator food sources is unknown. Flowering late in the season, goldenrod (Solidago spp.) pollen is a widely available autumnal food source commonly acknowledged by apiarists to be essential to native bee (e.g. Bombus spp.) and honeybee (Apis mellifera) health and winter survival. Using floral collections obtained from the Smithsonian Natural History Museum, we quantified Ca-induced temporal changes in pollen protein concentration of Canada goldenrod (Solidago canadensis), the most widespread Solidago taxon, from hundreds of samples collected throughout the USA and southern Canada over the period 1842–2014 (i.e. a Ca from approx. 280 to 398 ppm). In addition, we conducted a 2 year in situ trial of S. canadensis populations grown along a continuous Ca gradient from approximately 280 to 500 ppm. The historical data indicated a strong significant correlation between recent increases in Ca and reductions in pollen protein concentration (r2 = 0.81). Experimental data confirmed this decrease in pollen protein concentration, and indicated that it would be ongoing as Ca continues to rise in the near term, i.e. to 500 ppm (r2 = 0.88). While additional data are needed to quantify the subsequent effects of reduced protein concentration for Canada goldenrod on bee health and population stability, these results are the first to indicate that increasing Ca can reduce protein content of a floral pollen source widely used by North American bees. AU - Ziska, Lewis H. AU - Pettis, Jeffery S. AU - Edwards, Joan AU - Hancock, Jillian E. AU - Tomecek, Martha B. AU - Clark, Andrew AU - Dukes, Jeffrey S. AU - Loladze, Irakli AU - Polley, H. Wayne DO - 10.1098/rspb.2016.0414 IS - 1828 PY - 2016 ST - Rising atmospheric CO2 is reducing the protein concentration of a floral pollen source essential for North American bees T2 - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences TI - Rising atmospheric CO2 is reducing the protein concentration of a floral pollen source essential for North American bees VL - 283 ID - 26674 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Although recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide can alter plant phenological development, these changes have not been quantified in terms of floral outcrossing rates or gene transfer. Could differential phenological development in response to rising CO2 between genetically modified crops and wild, weedy relatives increase the spread of novel genes, potentially altering evolutionary fitness? Here we show that increasing CO2 from an early 20th century concentration (300 µmol mol−1) to current (400 µmol mol−1) and projected, mid-21st century (600 µmol mol−1) values, enhanced the flow of genes from wild, weedy rice to the genetically altered, herbicide resistant, cultivated population, with outcrossing increasing from 0.22% to 0.71% from 300 to 600 µmol mol−1. The increase in outcrossing and gene transfer was associated with differential increases in plant height, as well as greater tiller and panicle production in the wild, relative to the cultivated population. In addition, increasing CO2 also resulted in a greater synchronicity in flowering times between the two populations. The observed changes reported here resulted in a subsequent increase in rice dedomestication and a greater number of weedy, herbicide-resistant hybrid progeny. Overall, these data suggest that differential phenological responses to rising atmospheric CO2 could result in enhanced flow of novel genes and greater success of feral plant species in agroecosystems. AU - Ziska, Lewis H. AU - Gealy, David R. AU - Tomecek, Martha B. AU - Jackson, Aaron K. AU - Black, Howard L. DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0037522 IS - 5 PY - 2012 SP - e37522 ST - Recent and projected increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration can enhance gene flow between wild and genetically altered rice (Oryza sativa) T2 - PLOS ONE TI - Recent and projected increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration can enhance gene flow between wild and genetically altered rice (Oryza sativa) VL - 7 ID - 26675 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Taub, Daniel R. IS - 10 PY - 2010 SP - 21 ST - Effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide on plants T2 - Nature Education Knowledge TI - Effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide on plants UR - https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-of-rising-atmospheric-concentrations-of-carbon-13254108 VL - 3 ID - 26676 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Contact with poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) is one of the most widely reported ailments at poison centers in the United States, and this plant has been introduced throughout the world, where it occurs with other allergenic members of the cashew family (Anacardiaceae). Approximately 80% of humans develop dermatitis upon exposure to the carbon-based active compound, urushiol. It is not known how poison ivy might respond to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but previous work done in controlled growth chambers shows that other vines exhibit large growth enhancement from elevated CO2. Rising CO2 is potentially responsible for the increased vine abundance that is inhibiting forest regeneration and increasing tree mortality around the world. In this 6-year study at the Duke University Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment, we show that elevated atmospheric CO2 in an intact forest ecosystem increases photosynthesis, water use efficiency, growth, and population biomass of poison ivy. The CO2 growth stimulation exceeds that of most other woody species. Furthermore, high-CO2 plants produce a more allergenic form of urushiol. Our results indicate that Toxicodendron taxa will become more abundant and more “toxic” in the future, potentially affecting global forest dynamics and human health. AU - Mohan, Jacqueline E. AU - Ziska, Lewis H. AU - Schlesinger, William H. AU - Thomas, Richard B. AU - Sicher, Richard C. AU - George, Kate AU - Clark, James S. DO - 10.1073/pnas.0602392103 IS - 24 PY - 2006 SP - 9086-9089 ST - Biomass and toxicity responses of poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) to elevated atmospheric CO2 T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America TI - Biomass and toxicity responses of poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) to elevated atmospheric CO2 VL - 103 ID - 26677 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Little Ice Age (14th–19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ∼70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. AU - Pederson, Gregory T. AU - Fagre, Daniel B. AU - Gray, Stephen T. AU - Graumlich, Lisa J. DO - 10.1029/2004GL019770 IS - 12 PY - 2004 SP - L12203 ST - Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA T2 - Geophysical Research Letters TI - Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA VL - 31 ID - 26678 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pederson, Gregory T. AU - Graumlich, Lisa J. AU - Fagre, Daniel B. AU - Kipfer, Todd AU - Muhlfeld, Clint C. DO - 10.1007/s10584-009-9642-y IS - 1-2 PY - 2010 SP - 133-154 ST - A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend? T2 - Climatic Change TI - A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend? VL - 98 ID - 26679 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities. AU - Pederson, Gregory T. AU - Gray, Stephen T. AU - Ault, Toby AU - Marsh, Wendy AU - Fagre, Daniel B. AU - Bunn, Andrew G. AU - Woodhouse, Connie A. AU - Graumlich, Lisa J. DO - 10.1175/2010jcli3729.1 IS - 6 KW - Hydrology,Snowmelt/icemelt,Streamflow,Water masses/storage,Watersheds PY - 2011 SP - 1666-1687 ST - Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains T2 - Journal of Climate TI - Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains VL - 24 ID - 26680 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Shepherd, John AU - Caldeira, Ken AU - Cox, Peter AU - Haigh, Joanna AU - Keith, David AU - Launder, Brian AU - Mace, Georgina AU - MacKerron, Gordon AU - Pyle, John AU - Rayner, Steve AU - Redgwell, Catherine AU - Watson, Andrew CY - London, UK N1 - ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5 PB - The Royal Society PY - 2009 RP - ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5 SN - Report 10/09 SP - 82 ST - Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty TI - Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty UR - https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf ID - 26681 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Hsiang, Solomon M. AU - Jina, Amir S. CY - Cambridge, MA DO - 10.3386/w20352 PB - National Bureau of Economic Research PY - 2014 SN - NBER Working Paper No. 20352 SP - 68 ST - The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones TI - The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones ID - 26682 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Franco, Guido AU - Sanstad, Alan H. DO - 10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y IS - Suppl. 1 PY - 2008 SP - 139-151 ST - Climate change and electricity demand in California T2 - Climatic Change TI - Climate change and electricity demand in California VL - 87 ID - 26683 ER - TY - RPRT AU - Adhvaryu, Achyuta AU - Kala, Namrata AU - Nyshadham, Anant CY - Cambridge, MA DO - 10.3386/w24314 PB - National Bureau of Economic Research PY - 2014 SN - NBER Working Paper No. 24314 SP - 63 ST - The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-Saving Technology TI - The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-Saving Technology ID - 26684 ER - TY - WEB AU - EPA CY - Washington, DC PB - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PY - 2017 ST - Climate Change Indicators: Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases TI - Climate Change Indicators: Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases UR - https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases ID - 26762 ER - TY - WEB AU - NASA M1 - 12 February 2018 PB - NASA Scientific Visualization Studio PY - 2016 ST - Weekly Animation of Arctic Sea Ice Age with Graph of Ice Age by Area: 1984-2016 TI - Weekly Animation of Arctic Sea Ice Age with Graph of Ice Age by Area: 1984-2016 UR - https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4510 ID - 26763 ER -